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Pat (South Pacific Ocean)
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Graphic courtesy of Hawaii Solar Astronomy |
A hurricane (or typhoon, or severe tropical cyclone), the strongest storm on Earth, is a cyclonic (rotary) storm that derives its energy from cloud formation and rainfall. This is unlike mid-latitude storms that derive their power from a temperature gradient. The strongest hurricanes release energy the equivalant of one 10-megaton nuclear bomb exploding every 20 minutes. A hurricane begins as a tropical depression with a sustained wind speed of less than 39 mph (63 km/hr). Next, a tropical storm has winds from 39-73 mph (63-118 km/hr).Tropical storms are named in the Atlantic, East, Central and Northwest Pacific, in the South Indian Ocean, and in the Arabian Sea. When the winds are sustained (based on a one-minute average) at 74 mph (119 km/hr), the storm becomes:
In the Atlantic Ocean, East Pacific, Central Pacific (east of the International Dateline) and Southeast Pacific (east of 160°E) a Hurricane; in the Northwest Pacific (west of the International Dateline) a Typhoon; in the Southwest Pacific (west of 160°E) and Southeast Indian Ocean (east of 90°E) a Severe Tropical Cyclone; in the North Indian Ocean a Severe Cyclonic Storm; and in the Southwest Indian Ocean (west of 90°E) a Tropical Cyclone.
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Tropical Cyclone PAT Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) |
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- Tropical Cyclone PAT Forecast/Advisory (JTWC)
- Tropical Cyclone PAT JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
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WTPS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 13.7S 159.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 159.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.7S 159.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.5S 159.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 16.3S 160.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.9S 161.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 18.3S 165.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 20.1S 169.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 22.8S 171.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 159.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (PAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM EAST OF
PAGO-PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED
A COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
TC 14P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST EXTENSION OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH MINIMAL BANDING.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES
AND FROM MULTI-AGENCY FIXES INCLUDING PGTW, KNES, AND NFFN. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 FROM
PGTW. TC PAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON A MORE POLEWARD DIRECTION AS A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH ASSUMES STEERING OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, CAUSING IT TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. BY
TAU 120, TC 14P WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN UNISON AS FAR AS TURNING THE TRACK TO THE SOUTH THEN
TO THE SOUTHWEST, HOWEVER, THERE IS A NOTABLE SPREAD IN THE ENVELOPE
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST PAST TAU 24, WITH JGSM AND
ECMWF TO THE RIGHT OF THE PACK AND WBAR AND UKMET TO THE LEFT. THIS
FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE ALONGSIDE JTWC CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.//
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WTPS51 PGTW 082100
WARNING ATCP MIL 14P SWP 100208190345
2010020818 14P PAT 003 01 135 10 SATL 060
T000 137S 1597W 055 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 147S 1595W 060 R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 155S 1597W 065 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 163S 1605W 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD
T048 169S 1616W 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD
T072 183S 1651W 065 R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD
T096 201S 1692W 055
T120 228S 1717W 050
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 13.7S 159.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 159.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.7S 159.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.5S 159.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 16.3S 160.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.9S 161.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 18.3S 165.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 20.1S 169.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 22.8S 171.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 159.7W.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.
//
1410020606 79S1672W 15
1410020612 80S1667W 15
1410020618 82S1661W 15
1410020700 87S1652W 25
1410020706 92S1645W 30
1410020712 100S1635W 30
1410020718 107S1623W 35
1410020800 114S1615W 40
1410020806 123S1609W 50
1410020812 130S1604W 55
1410020812 130S1604W 55
1410020818 137S1597W 55
1410020818 137S1597W 55
NNNN
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