WTPN33 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 009    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z --- NEAR 24.6N 127.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 127.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 25.6N 125.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 26.8N 124.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 27.9N 123.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 28.9N 123.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 30.2N 122.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 32.6N 122.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 35.7N 122.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 127.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU). LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC), WHICH HAS FOLLOWED A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THEN 
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. A 031415Z 85 GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE PASS AND A 
031742Z 89 GHZ AMSU PASS CONFIRM A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND SHOW 
TIGHTLY CURVED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LLLCC. 
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE 
APPARENT LLCC IN THESE TWO MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY 
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, 
RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW 
PREVIOUSLY HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AND 
IMPINGING OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF TS 10W, HAS MOVED 
WESTWARD, ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REBUILD OVER THE LLCC. TS 10W IS 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 
LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STATIONED OVER JAPAN. AS AN 
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE RIDGE, TS 10W IS 
EXPECTED TO SLOW AND INTENSIFY AS IT SKIRTS ALONG THE COAST OF 
EASTERN CHINA. AFTER TAU 72, TS MALOU IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT 
TRACKS INTO THE YELLOW SEA DUE TO THE IMPACT OF MID-LATITUDE 
WESTERLIES HINDERING OUTFLOW AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, BUT 
BEGINS TO DIVERGE AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. 
GFDN, GFS, AND NOGAPS INDICATE AN ERRATIC LOOPING PATTERN, EGRR AND 
JGSM DRIVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN CHINA, AND ECMWF 
AND WBAR RECURVE THE SYSTEM WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. 
THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, 
BUT FAVORS A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 
040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.//
NNNN



							

WDPN33 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WITH
SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SAME ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS A TUTT
CELL TO THE WEST THAT IS IMPINGING THE OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 031059Z SSMI-S
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A DETACHED LLCC FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS POSITION IS POOR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
AVERAGED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD.
THE RECENT STORM MOTION IS MORE WESTWARD THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK
WHICH MAY BE AN INDICATION OF DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (TD) TO THE SOUTH. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS NOW ON A MORE WEST-
WARD TRAJECTORY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE EXTENDED FORECAST
IS MORE TO THE RIGHT. HOWEVER, THE FUNDAMENTAL PHILOSOPHY OF THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS REMAINS THE SAME.
   B. TS 10W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED JUST
SOUTH OF MAINLAND JAPAN THROUGH TAU 72. OVER THIS PERIOD, THE SYSTEM
WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY, PEAKING AT 60 KTS. THE INITIAL STORM MOTION
MAY BE SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY DUE TO DCI MENTIONED IN PARA 2.A. 
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS MALOU IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO A WEAK
STEERING FLOW IN THE YELLOW SEA AS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IT WILL
THEN WEAKEN DUE TO THE COOLER WATERS OF THE NORTHERN YELLOW SEA AND
EXPOSURE TO WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO
TAU 24 THEN OFFER VARIOUS SOLUTIONS. GFS IS LEFT OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE AND DEPICTS A LOOPING MOTION AFTER TAU 24, PRESUMABLY DUE TO
A MERGER BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TD. DUE TO THE
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE YELLOW SEA, THE MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY. ECMWF OPTS FOR AN ACCELERATED RECURVE ACROSS THE
KOREAN PENINSULA, NOGAPS BRINGS THE SYSTEM STRAIGHT INTO CHINA, AND
WBAR OFFERS AN ABBREVIATED RECURVE TOWARDS THE KOREAN STRAIT.
NEEDLESS TO SAY, ERRATIC STORM MOTION AFTER TAU 72 IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY.//
NNNN



							

WTPN53 PGTW 032100    
WARNING    ATCP MIL 10W NWP 100903201543
2010090318 10W MALOU      009  01 275 13 SATL 060
T000 246N 1277E 035 
T012 256N 1257E 040 R034 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD 
T024 268N 1242E 040 R034 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD 
T036 279N 1235E 045 R034 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD 
T048 289N 1230E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD 
T072 302N 1226E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD 
T096 326N 1224E 040 
T120 357N 1226E 035 
AMP
SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 009    
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 009    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z --- NEAR 24.6N 127.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 127.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 25.6N 125.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 26.8N 124.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 27.9N 123.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 28.9N 123.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 30.2N 122.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 32.6N 122.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 35.7N 122.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 127.2E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.
//
1010083018 121N1470E  15
1010083100 123N1464E  15
1010083106 124N1457E  15
1010083112 124N1449E  15
1010083118 129N1439E  15
1010090100 138N1429E  15
1010090106 148N1419E  15
1010090112 158N1409E  20
1010090118 167N1398E  25
1010090200 178N1387E  30
1010090206 195N1372E  30
1010090212 209N1360E  30
1010090218 219N1345E  30
1010090300 229N1330E  30
1010090306 238N1312E  35
1010090312 245N1291E  35
1010090318 246N1277E  35
NNNN