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Ului (South Pacific Ocean)
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Graphic courtesy of Hawaii Solar Astronomy |
A hurricane (or typhoon, or severe tropical cyclone), the strongest storm on Earth, is a cyclonic (rotary) storm that derives its energy from cloud formation and rainfall. This is unlike mid-latitude storms that derive their power from a temperature gradient. The strongest hurricanes release energy the equivalant of one 10-megaton nuclear bomb exploding every 20 minutes. A hurricane begins as a tropical depression with a sustained wind speed of less than 39 mph (63 km/hr). Next, a tropical storm has winds from 39-73 mph (63-118 km/hr).Tropical storms are named in the Atlantic, East, Central and Northwest Pacific, in the South Indian Ocean, and in the Arabian Sea. When the winds are sustained (based on a one-minute average) at 74 mph (119 km/hr), the storm becomes:
In the Atlantic Ocean, East Pacific, Central Pacific (east of the International Dateline) and Southeast Pacific (east of 160°E) a Hurricane; in the Northwest Pacific (west of the International Dateline) a Typhoon; in the Southwest Pacific (west of 160°E) and Southeast Indian Ocean (east of 90°E) a Severe Tropical Cyclone; in the North Indian Ocean a Severe Cyclonic Storm; and in the Southwest Indian Ocean (west of 90°E) a Tropical Cyclone.
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Tropical Cyclone ULUI Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) |
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- Tropical Cyclone ULUI Forecast/Advisory (JTWC)
- Tropical Cyclone ULUI JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
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WTPS31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 157.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 157.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.0S 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.1S 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.8S 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.4S 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.8S 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.2S 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 157.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (ULUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECREASE
IN CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON A SATELLITE IMAGERY FIX FROM PGTW AND INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON PGTW AND ABRF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 80 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 20P IS LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF 20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 20P IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. AS A STR BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
ULUI IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE. TC
20P SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN QUEENSLAND COAST BY TAU
72 AND THEN WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER LAND. VWS SHOULD DECREASE AS
THE STR BUILDS TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING TC 20P TO MAINTAIN CONSTANT
INTENSITIES PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THIS FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE NUMERICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.//
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WTPS51 PGTW 181500
WARNING ATCP MIL 20P SWP 100318131758
2010031812 20P ULUI 015 01 180 02 SATL 060
T000 156S 1577E 080 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 155 SE QD 145 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 170S 1565E 080 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 155 SE QD 145 SW QD 145 NW QD
T024 181S 1548E 080 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 155 SE QD 155 SW QD 145 NW QD
T036 188S 1524E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 194S 1499E 075 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 145 SE QD 145 SW QD 135 NW QD
T072 198S 1451E 040
T096 192S 1405E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 157.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 157.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.0S 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.1S 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.8S 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.4S 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.8S 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.2S 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 157.4E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.
//
2010031000 142S1686E 15
2010031006 143S1683E 20
2010031012 145S1681E 25
2010031018 145S1678E 30
2010031100 145S1674E 30
2010031106 145S1672E 30
2010031112 147S1669E 30
2010031118 148S1666E 35
2010031200 147S1662E 40
2010031206 144S1657E 45
2010031212 141S1652E 45
2010031218 139S1647E 50
2010031300 136S1641E 55
2010031300 136S1641E 55
2010031306 134S1636E 65
2010031306 134S1636E 65
2010031312 131S1630E 105
2010031312 131S1630E 105
2010031312 131S1630E 105
2010031318 129S1625E 125
2010031318 129S1625E 125
2010031318 129S1625E 125
2010031400 128S1617E 140
2010031400 128S1617E 140
2010031400 128S1617E 140
2010031406 128S1612E 140
2010031406 128S1612E 140
2010031406 128S1612E 140
2010031412 128S1605E 140
2010031412 128S1605E 140
2010031412 128S1605E 140
2010031418 128S1600E 130
2010031418 128S1600E 130
2010031418 128S1600E 130
2010031500 129S1595E 130
2010031500 129S1595E 130
2010031500 129S1595E 130
2010031506 130S1590E 130
2010031506 130S1590E 130
2010031506 130S1590E 130
2010031512 131S1587E 125
2010031512 131S1587E 125
2010031512 131S1587E 125
2010031518 133S1584E 115
2010031518 133S1584E 115
2010031518 133S1584E 115
2010031600 133S1582E 115
2010031600 133S1582E 115
2010031600 133S1582E 115
2010031606 133S1580E 110
2010031606 133S1580E 110
2010031606 133S1580E 110
2010031612 135S1579E 110
2010031612 135S1579E 110
2010031612 135S1579E 110
2010031618 137S1578E 115
2010031618 137S1578E 115
2010031618 137S1578E 115
2010031700 138S1578E 105
2010031700 138S1578E 105
2010031700 138S1578E 105
2010031706 140S1578E 105
2010031706 140S1578E 105
2010031706 140S1578E 105
2010031712 144S1580E 100
2010031712 144S1580E 100
2010031712 144S1580E 100
2010031718 147S1580E 90
2010031718 147S1580E 90
2010031718 147S1580E 90
2010031800 150S1579E 85
2010031800 150S1579E 85
2010031800 150S1579E 85
2010031806 154S1577E 80
2010031806 154S1577E 80
2010031806 154S1577E 80
2010031812 156S1577E 80
2010031812 156S1577E 80
2010031812 156S1577E 80
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