| ACTIVE STORMS |
Iggy (S. Indian Ocean)
Funso (S. Indian Ocean)
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A hurricane (or typhoon, or severe tropical cyclone), the strongest storm on Earth, is a cyclonic (rotary) storm that derives its energy from cloud formation and rainfall. This is unlike mid-latitude storms that derive their power from a temperature gradient. The strongest hurricanes release energy the equivalant of one 10-megaton nuclear bomb exploding every 20 minutes.
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A hurricane begins as a tropical depression with a sustained wind speed of less than 39 mph (35 knots; 63 km/hr). As the system strengthens, it becomes a tropical storm with winds from 39 to 73 mph (35-63 knots; 63-118 km/hr). Tropical storms are named in the Atlantic, East, Central and Northwest Pacific, in the South Indian Ocean, and in the Arabian Sea. When the winds are sustained (based on a one-minute average) at 74 mph (64 knots; 119 km/hr), the storm becomes:
In the Atlantic Ocean, East Pacific, Central Pacific (east of the International Dateline) and Southeast Pacific (east of 160°E) a Hurricane; in the Northwest Pacific (west of the International Dateline) a Typhoon; in the Southwest Pacific (west of 160°E) and Southeast Indian Ocean (east of 90°E) a Severe Tropical Cyclone; in the North Indian Ocean a Severe Cyclonic Storm; and in the Southwest Indian Ocean (west of 90°E) a Tropical Cyclone.
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WTXS31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 013//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 20.2S 111.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 111.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.5S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.8S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.5S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 22.2S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.7S 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 24.6S 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 25.8S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 111.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 09S HAS COME OUT OF
ANOTHER PHASE OF DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM AND THE RELATIVELY
THINNER SPIRAL BANDS HAVE GIVEN WAY TO A NEW BURST OF CENTRAL
CONVECTION THAT HAS TAKEN THE FORM OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE
LATEST SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES (282149Z AND 290000Z SSMIS) 91GHZ
AND 37GHZ SLICES REVEAL THAT THE LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND UPPER-
LEVEL CIRCULATION ARE STILL TILTED TO THE WEST AS ALTITUDE
INCREASES. THIS COULD ACCOUNT FOR THE SOMEWHAT FLAT INTENSITY TREND
OVER THE PAST 24-36 HOURS. HOWEVER, THESE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES
ALSO SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WRAP MORE INTO AND
AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE CONTINUED TREND OF DECREASING EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH CURRENT ESTIMATED VALES OF 10-15 KNOTS. THE
CIMSS UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE PRODUCT HINTS TOWARDS SOME NEGATIVE
DIVERGENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC WITH MAXIMUM DIVERGENCE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP STILL SHOWS
DECENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMIS
DATA AND AGREES WELL WITH THE APRF CENTER FIX LOCATION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY WAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK
ESTIMATE THAT WAS CENTRALLY LOCATED 12NM TO THE EAST OF THE
ESTIMATED LLCC POSITION AND IN CONSIDERATION THAT THE SYSTEM IS
NEARLY UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. TC IGGY CONTINUES TO TRACK
VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. IN THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO COME UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING OVER WESTERN
AUSTRALIA. BY TAU 24, TC 09S SHOULD BE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS AND
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS). BY TAU 72, TC 09S
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP OFF
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHES. THIS TROUGH SHOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM ON A MORE
SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK DURING THE EXTENDED 4-5 DAY FORECAST. AFTER
ASSESSING THE PERFORMANCE OF THE MODEL TRACKERS SINCE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED ON TC 09S IT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED THAT THE NOGAPS AND
GFDN MODELS HAVE PERFORMED THE POOREST AND THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
PERFORMED THE BEST. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST FAVORS THOSE MODEL'S
SOLUTIONS AS IT LAYS IN BETWEEN THE TWO AND NEAR THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, TRACK SPEEDS ARE SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF/GFS/CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 48 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FAST TRACK
SPEEDS OF THE ECMWF/GFS WHICH ARE PULLING THE MODEL CONSENSUS ON A
FAST BIAS DURING THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
290000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z, AND
300300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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WTXS51 PGTW 290300
WARNING ATCP MIL 09S SIO 120129015437
2012012900 09S IGGY 013 02 155 02 SATL 060
T000 202S 1112E 065 R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 205S 1113E 065 R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 208S 1112E 070 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 105 SW QD 125 NW QD
T036 215S 1107E 075 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 125 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 222S 1100E 075 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 125 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 237S 1089E 070 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 105 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 246S 1084E 065
T120 258S 1091E 050
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 20.2S 111.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 111.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.5S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.8S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.5S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 22.2S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.7S 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 24.6S 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 25.8S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 111.2E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z AND 300300Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0912012218 131S1175E 15
0912012300 135S1170E 15
0912012306 143S1163E 20
0912012312 150S1158E 15
0912012318 158S1149E 20
0912012400 163S1137E 20
0912012406 168S1125E 25
0912012412 165S1110E 30
0912012418 160S1095E 30
0912012500 159S1092E 30
0912012506 158S1088E 30
0912012512 158S1085E 35
0912012518 159S1080E 40
0912012600 162S1083E 45
0912012606 166S1087E 45
0912012612 171S1090E 45
0912012618 176S1095E 45
0912012700 181S1100E 50
0912012706 186S1103E 50
0912012712 189S1105E 55
0912012712 189S1105E 55
0912012718 193S1107E 55
0912012718 193S1107E 55
0912012800 196S1108E 55
0912012800 196S1108E 55
0912012806 198S1109E 55
0912012806 198S1109E 55
0912012812 199S1110E 60
0912012812 199S1110E 60
0912012818 200S1111E 60
0912012818 200S1111E 60
0912012900 202S1112E 65
0912012900 202S1112E 65
NNNN
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Radar
Satellite Imagery
Satellite Animations
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WTXS32 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 021//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 31.0S 43.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 31.0S 43.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 33.2S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 31.6S 44.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (FUNSO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAKENING AND ELONGATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 130NM FROM THE
CENTER. A 281749Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A COMPLETE EROSION OF
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE 91GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED WELL TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE LLCC AS THE FLOW ENTRAINS INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES
CENTER FIXES AND THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM KNES.
RECENT UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LLCC TO BE LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 05 DEGREES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF A POINT SOURCE OF
DIFFLUENCE WITH TROUGHING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY
UNDER VERY STRONG (40-50 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE AT AN UNFAVORABLE 24 DEGREES CELSIUS.
RECENT AMSU CROSS SECTIONS SHOW AN INCREASING NEUTRAL WARM CORE
ANOMALY IN THE UPPER-LEVELS AND AN INCREASING WARM CORE ANOMALY IN
THE LOWER-LEVELS AS THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. TC FUNSO WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK VERY FAST INTO
THE POLEWARD WESTERLY FLOW AND BE COMPLETELY EXTRA-TROPICAL IN 12
HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONI-
TORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
281800Z IS 22 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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WTXS52 PGTW 282100
WARNING ATCP MIL 08S SIO 120128195149
2012012818 08S FUNSO 021 02 140 17 SATL 040
T000 310S 0433E 035
T012 332S 0468E 030
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 31.0S 43.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 31.0S 43.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 33.2S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 31.6S 44.2E.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONI-
TORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 22 FEET.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0812011618 154S 406E 15
0812011700 156S 408E 15
0812011706 158S 410E 20
0812011712 160S 412E 25
0812011718 163S 413E 25
0812011800 166S 413E 25
0812011806 168S 413E 25
0812011812 170S 413E 25
0812011818 173S 412E 30
0812011900 176S 411E 30
0812011906 179S 408E 35
0812011912 181S 404E 35
0812011918 182S 399E 45
0812012000 183S 393E 75
0812012000 183S 393E 75
0812012000 183S 393E 75
0812012006 183S 387E 75
0812012006 183S 387E 75
0812012006 183S 387E 75
0812012012 183S 383E 75
0812012012 183S 383E 75
0812012012 183S 383E 75
0812012018 183S 380E 80
0812012018 183S 380E 80
0812012018 183S 380E 80
0812012100 181S 378E 85
0812012100 181S 378E 85
0812012100 181S 378E 85
0812012106 180S 377E 100
0812012106 180S 377E 100
0812012106 180S 377E 100
0812012112 179S 378E 100
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0812012806 281S 415E 55
0812012806 281S 415E 55
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0812012818 310S 433E 35
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Satellite Imagery
Satellite Animations
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