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A hurricane (or typhoon, or severe tropical cyclone), the strongest storm on Earth, is a cyclonic (rotary) storm that derives its energy from cloud formation and rainfall. This is unlike mid-latitude storms that derive their power from a temperature gradient. The strongest hurricanes release energy the equivalant of one 10-megaton nuclear bomb exploding every 20 minutes.
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A hurricane begins as a tropical depression with a sustained wind speed of less than 39 mph (35 knots; 63 km/hr). As the system strengthens, it becomes a tropical storm with winds from 39 to 73 mph (35-63 knots; 63-118 km/hr). Tropical storms are named in the Atlantic, East, Central and Northwest Pacific, in the South Indian Ocean, and in the Arabian Sea. When the winds are sustained (based on a one-minute average) at 74 mph (64 knots; 119 km/hr), the storm becomes:
In the Atlantic Ocean, East Pacific, Central Pacific (east of the International Dateline) and Southeast Pacific (east of 160°E) a Hurricane; in the Northwest Pacific (west of the International Dateline) a Typhoon; in the Southwest Pacific (west of 160°E) and Southeast Indian Ocean (east of 90°E) a Severe Tropical Cyclone; in the North Indian Ocean a Severe Cyclonic Storm; and in the Southwest Indian Ocean (west of 90°E) a Tropical Cyclone.
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WTPS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 006//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 17.5S 161.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 161.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 17.7S 163.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.1S 165.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.1S 168.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 20.6S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 23.2S 172.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 25.1S 176.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 25.9S 179.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 162.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY DEEPENED AS CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
65 KNOTS FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES ABOUT 5 DEGREES SOUTH OF A
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (05-15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST IS SUPPRESSING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS QUITE ROBUST, AS EVIDENCED
ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE VORTEX IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO
TAKE A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD DIP BY TAU 36 AS AN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, CURRENTLY ANCHORED OVER WESTERN SAMOA, ASSUMES
STEERING. BY TAU 96, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL NUDGE THE SYSTEM ON A FLATTER, EASTWARD TRAJECTORY.
TC JASMINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A MODEST INTENSIFICATION UP TO
TAU 72 AS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL OPENS UP WITH A SWITCH IN THE
STEERING PATTERN BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTERWARDS WITH
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS, INCLINED ON SPEEDING THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSELY IN LINE WITH
CONSENSUS UP TO THE EXTENDED TAUS WHERE IT IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO
OFFSET NOGAPS UNLIKELY ACCELERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 061800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
//
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WTPS52 PGTW 070300
WARNING ATCP MIL 11P SWP 120207011254
2012020700 11P CYRIL 002 02 125 24 SATL 060
T000 203S 1720W 045 R034 035 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 234S 1679W 040 R034 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD
T024 267S 1624W 035
T036 298S 1563W 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 20.3S 172.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 172.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.4S 167.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 26.7S 162.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.8S 156.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 171.0W.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 10 FEET.
AT 020700 TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED 368 NM S OF PAGO_PAGO.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1112020512 167S1760E 20
1112020518 171S1780E 25
1112020600 173S1798W 25
1112020606 175S1777W 30
1112020612 182S1756W 35
1112020618 189S1741W 40
1112020700 203S1720W 45
NNNN
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Satellite Imagery
Satellite Animations
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WTPS32 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 002//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 20.3S 172.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 172.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.4S 167.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 26.7S 162.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.8S 156.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 171.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (CYRIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS SLIGHT CONSOLIDATION AS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITIONS WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE
OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE 062355Z SURFACE
OBSERVATION FROM LUPEPAU, A NEARBY ISLAND TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 11P IS 10 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF RAPIDLY INCREASING (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. THE VORTEX IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY OF A DEEPLY-ENTRENCHED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR). IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS FURTHER
INCREASES AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE STR AXIS AND
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE. TC CYRIL WILL
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TRIPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT; HENCE, THIS TRACK FORECAST
IS IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
070000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
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WTPS52 PGTW 070300
WARNING ATCP MIL 11P SWP 120207011254
2012020700 11P CYRIL 002 02 125 24 SATL 060
T000 203S 1720W 045 R034 035 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 234S 1679W 040 R034 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD
T024 267S 1624W 035
T036 298S 1563W 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 20.3S 172.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 172.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.4S 167.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 26.7S 162.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.8S 156.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 171.0W.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 10 FEET.
AT 020700 TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED 368 NM S OF PAGO_PAGO.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1112020512 167S1760E 20
1112020518 171S1780E 25
1112020600 173S1798W 25
1112020606 175S1777W 30
1112020612 182S1756W 35
1112020618 189S1741W 40
1112020700 203S1720W 45
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Satellite Imagery
Satellite Animations
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