1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 029 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 112.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 112.2E
ABIO10 PGTW 190600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/190600Z-191800ZMAR2024// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 18S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.1S 111.8E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH A WELL- ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. A 190156Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. A PARTIAL 190108Z ASCAT-B IMAGE INDICATES 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE DUE PRIMARILY TO EXTENSIVE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE MID- TO UPPER- LEVELS, OFFSET BY LOW VWS, ROBUST POLEWARD VENTING, AND WARM SST (27- 28 C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL REINTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, BUT VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE TIMING OF THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SYSTEM. GFS INDICATES REDEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE ECMWF INDICATES A LESS AGGRESSIVE 2-3 DAY REDEVELOPMENT TIMELINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REMOVED TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S FINAL WARNING INFORMATION AND ADDED REMNANTS OF TC 18S AS A MEDIUM.// NNNN
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