HOME      ABOUT      ARTICLES      CONTACT      LINKS      CONVERTER
HurricaneZone.net
CLICK ON MAP TO ACCESS STORM DETAILS
Situation Map
Legend
Tropical Storm AMPIL Situation Map

What is a Hurricane?

A hurricane (or typhoon, or severe tropical cyclone), the strongest storm on Earth, is a cyclonic (rotary) storm that derives its energy from cloud formation and rainfall, unlike frontal cyclones that derive their power from a temperature gradient. Full Article

The Saffir-Simpson Scale

Category 1 – 74-95 mph (64-82 knots; 119-153 km/hr). Damage is limited to foliage, signage, unanchored boats and mobile homes. There is no significant damage to buildings. The main threat to life and property may be flooding from heavy rains.

Category 2 – 96-110 mph (83-95 knots; 154-177 km/hr). Roof damage to buildings. Doors and windows damaged. Mobile homes severely damaged. Piers damaged by storm surge. Some trees blown down, more extensive limb damage. Full Article

Tropical Cyclone Formation

Tropical Cyclone Genesis is the technical term for the process of storm formation that leads ultimately to what are called hurricanes, typhoons, or tropical cyclones in various parts of the world.

This occurs when, in the Northern Hemisphere, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ, shifts northward out of the doldrums and atmospheric conditions become favorable for tropical cyclone formation after about the middle of May. Full Article

Tropical Storm AMPIL Forecast Graphic
Tropical Storm AMPIL Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Storm AMPIL Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Storm AMPIL Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Storm AMPIL Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Storm AMPIL Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 011    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200600Z --- NEAR 23.2N 130.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.2N 130.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 25.1N 128.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 27.1N 126.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 28.9N 123.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 30.3N 121.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 32.8N 117.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 34.5N 114.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 130.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (AMPIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
200600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z 
AND 210900Z.
//
NNNN
Tropical Storm AMPIL Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (AMPIL) 
WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 12W (AMPIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
EXTENDING TO THE MID LEVELS WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING OVER THE 
INNER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 200651Z GMI 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE 
INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT WITH A SMALL 
TUTT CELL INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF 
THE CENTRAL CIRCULATION. THERE IS, HOWEVER, A WESTWARD OUTFLOW 
CHANNEL SUPPORTING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE INNER SOUTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE, AS WELL AS STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW SUPPORTING CONVECTION 
WRAPPING OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. SST VALUES (27-
28C) REMAIN FAVORABLE WHILE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE LOW AND 
UNFAVORABLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS, HEDGED 
ABOVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS), BASED 
ON THE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. TS 12W IS LOCATED NORTHWEST 
OF AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) AND SOUTH OF A 
STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE 
NORTH.  
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS 
TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH. DUE TO THE 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO 
PERSIST, TS AMPIL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A SLOWER-THAN-
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF 10 KNOTS PER DAY THROUGH TAU 24. THE SYSTEM 
SHOULD PEAK AT 60 KNOTS AROUND TAU 24. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE 
IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 70NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24. THE 
BULK OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A TRACK OVER AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF 
OKINAWA. AFTER TAU 24, TS 12W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE 
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48, JUST 
SOUTH OF SHANGHAI. SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN EXTENSIVE 
AND ROBUST OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO THE STRONG GRADIENT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AND ADJACENT SURFACE HIGH. 
   C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND WHILE 
WEAKENING RAPIDLY UNTIL DISSIPATION AT TAU 96. OVERALL, THERE IS 
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK (I.E. LOW UNCERTAINTY), 
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm AMPIL JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN32 PGTW 200900    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 12W NWP 180720081058
2018072006 12W AMPIL      011  01 325 05 SATL 025
T000 232N 1306E 050 R034 140 NE QD 135 SE QD 085 SW QD 110 NW QD 
T012 251N 1289E 055 R050 075 NE QD 050 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 095 SW QD 120 NW QD 
T024 271N 1263E 060 R050 085 NE QD 055 SE QD 025 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 085 SW QD 125 NW QD 
T036 289N 1237E 060 R050 075 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 135 SE QD 085 SW QD 120 NW QD 
T048 303N 1215E 055 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 065 SW QD 095 NW QD 
T072 328N 1171E 035 
T096 345N 1148E 020 
AMP
    072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 12W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 011    
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 011    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200600Z --- NEAR 23.2N 130.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.2N 130.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 25.1N 128.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 27.1N 126.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 28.9N 123.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 30.3N 121.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 32.8N 117.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 34.5N 114.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 130.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (AMPIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.
//
1218071506 150N1311E  15
1218071512 156N1312E  15
1218071518 161N1308E  20
1218071600 166N1302E  20
1218071606 172N1295E  20
1218071612 175N1288E  20
1218071618 182N1288E  20
1218071700 186N1283E  20
1218071706 188N1279E  20
1218071712 190N1275E  20
1218071718 189N1270E  25
1218071800 191N1268E  25
1218071806 193N1276E  30
1218071812 194N1287E  35
1218071818 196N1297E  35
1218071900 201N1306E  40
1218071906 204N1313E  40
1218071912 211N1315E  40
1218071918 220N1313E  45
1218072000 228N1309E  50
1218072000 228N1309E  50
1218072006 232N1306E  50
NNNN

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook
Graphic provided by Climate Prediction Center