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Tropical Cyclone OWEN Situation Map

Tropical Cyclone Formation

Tropical Cyclone Genesis is the technical term for the process of storm formation that leads ultimately to what are called hurricanes, typhoons, or tropical cyclones in various parts of the world.

This occurs when, in the Northern Hemisphere, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ, shifts northward out of the doldrums and atmospheric conditions become favorable for tropical cyclone formation after about the middle of May.

A series of low-pressure ripples develops within the ITCZ. These are known as tropical waves and progress from east to west. In the late season, they typically shift their movement toward the west-nothwest, or even northwest, after crossing 45° or 50° W longitude. Full Article

Tropical Cyclone OWEN Forecast Graphic
Tropical Cyclone OWEN Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Cyclone OWEN Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Cyclone OWEN Storm-Centered Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement)
Tropical Cyclone OWEN Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Cyclone OWEN Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPS31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 017    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121800Z --- NEAR 15.0S 136.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 136.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 15.1S 137.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 15.1S 138.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 15.5S 140.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 16.5S 142.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 20.0S 147.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 23.3S 150.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 25.8S 152.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 136.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE 
OVERCAST AND A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS 
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING A 121754Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE WHICH 
REVEALS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED 
AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T3.5-T4.0 (55-
65 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 36, 
ALLOWING TC 05P TO INTENSIFY TO 90 KTS BEFORE EXITING THE GULF OF 
CARPENTARIA. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL 
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN, RAPIDLY AT FIRST THEN MORE SLOWLY AS 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD AND REMAINS ON 
SHORE. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE TURNING TOWARD AN EASTWARD 
TRACK UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE TRACK WILL TURN 
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE TRACK REFLECTS A CHANGE IN THE PRIMARY STEERING 
INFLUENCE FROM A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST TO A NEAR 
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE 
FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY WHILE UNDERGOING SUBTROPICAL 
TRANSITION. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR TC 05P TO DISSIPATE BY 
TAU 120 BUT AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE 
TO REMAIN ABOVE WARNING THRESHOLD AS IT COMPLETES SUBTROPICAL 
TRANSITION AS IT WILL BE EMBEDDED IN A REGION WITH WEAK 
BAROCLINICITY AND WESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT, PARTICULARLY IN THE EARLY TAUS, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW 
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING 
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 18 FEET. 
NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone OWEN JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPS51 PGTW 122100    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 05P SWP 181212201247
2018121218 05P OWEN       017  01 235 04 SATL 020
T000 150S 1362E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD 
T012 151S 1370E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 055 SW QD 090 NW QD 
T024 151S 1383E 085 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 110 NW QD 
T036 155S 1406E 090 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD 
T048 165S 1425E 070 
T072 200S 1472E 045 R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD 
T096 233S 1507E 035 R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD 
T120 258S 1528E 030 
AMP
    072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN) WARNING NR 017    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121800Z --- NEAR 15.0S 136.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 136.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 15.1S 137.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 15.1S 138.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 15.5S 140.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 16.5S 142.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 20.0S 147.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 23.3S 150.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 25.8S 152.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 136.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//
0518113000  86S1556E  20
0518113006  96S1554E  25
0518113012 104S1551E  25
0518113018 110S1548E  30
0518120100 116S1545E  30
0518120106 120S1544E  30
0518120112 124S1543E  30
0518120118 131S1544E  30
0518120200 139S1543E  35
0518120206 141S1546E  40
0518120212 146S1549E  40
0518120218 152S1549E  45
0518120300 155S1552E  45
0518120306 157S1555E  50
0518120306 157S1555E  50
0518120312 158S1562E  50
0518120312 158S1562E  50
0518120318 158S1569E  45
0518120400 160S1570E  40
0518120406 161S1557E  35
0518120412 162S1548E  30
0518120418 165S1543E  30
0518120500 172S1544E  25
0518120506 172S1542E  25
0518120512 174S1535E  25
0518120518 172S1528E  25
0518120600 166S1517E  25
0518120606 161S1513E  25
0518120612 151S1511E  25
0518120618 153S1508E  25
0518120700 158S1507E  25
0518120706 156S1506E  30
0518120712 153S1505E  25
0518120718 150S1507E  25
0518120800 156S1500E  25
0518120806 161S1493E  25
0518120812 165S1487E  25
0518120818 165S1479E  25
0518120900 161S1472E  25
0518120906 161S1468E  25
0518120912 161S1464E  30
0518120918 162S1453E  35
0518121000 161S1441E  25
0518121006 158S1429E  25
0518121012 156S1417E  20
0518121018 155S1407E  25
0518121100 154S1400E  30
0518121106 151S1392E  30
0518121112 149S1387E  35
0518121118 148S1381E  40
0518121200 148S1377E  45
0518121206 148S1369E  50
0518121206 148S1369E  50
0518121212 148S1365E  60
0518121212 148S1365E  60
0518121218 150S1362E  65
0518121218 150S1362E  65
0518121218 150S1362E  65
NNNN

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