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Typhoon FENGSHEN Tropical Storm KALMAEGI Tropical Storm RAYMOND Tropical Depression 21E Situation Map

Tropical Cyclone Formation

Tropical Cyclone Genesis is the technical term for the process of storm formation that leads ultimately to what are called hurricanes, typhoons, or tropical cyclones in various parts of the world.

This occurs when, in the Northern Hemisphere, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ, shifts northward out of the doldrums and atmospheric conditions become favorable for tropical cyclone formation after about the middle of May.

A series of low-pressure ripples develops within the ITCZ. These are known as tropical waves and progress from east to west. In the late season, they typically shift their movement toward the west-nothwest, or even northwest, after crossing 45° or 50° W longitude. Full Article

Typhoon FENGSHEN Forecast Graphic
Typhoon FENGSHEN Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Typhoon FENGSHEN Storm-Centered Infrared
Typhoon FENGSHEN Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Typhoon FENGSHEN Storm-Centered Visible
Typhoon FENGSHEN Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 26W (FENGSHEN) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (FENGSHEN) WARNING NR 023    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170000Z --- NEAR 26.6N 152.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.6N 152.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 25.9N 155.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 24.8N 156.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 23.6N 155.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 23.1N 154.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 26.4N 153.1E.
17NOV19. TYPHOON 26W (FENGSHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 599 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
170000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z 
AND 180300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNINGS 
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Typhoon FENGSHEN Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (FENGSHEN) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 26W (FENGSHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 599 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DECAYED AS IT BECAME MORE RAGGED AND 
ELONGATED AND WITH FAST WARMING CONVECTIVE TOPS. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PINHOLE EYE THAT 
HAS SINCE DISAPPEARED IN THE MSI LOOP, ADJUSTED FOR TILT AND LINED 
UP WITH A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 162120Z SSMIS 37GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF 
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT INDICATE A RAPIDLY WEAKENING TREND. TY 
26W DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF STRONG (>45KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS) AND COOLING SSTS (<27C) THAT ARE PARTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS ACCELERATING ON THE POLEWARD SIDE 
OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY 
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. 
   B. TY FENGSHEN WILL TRACK MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STR. 
AFTER TAU 12, AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY ERODES DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND 
COOLING SSTS, A SECONDARY, MID- TO LOW-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH WILL 
ASSUME STEERING AND LOOP THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WESTWARD. 
THE NEGATIVE COMBINED EFFECTS OF HIGH VWS AND COOL SSTS WILL RESULT 
IN DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE 
IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH THIS LOOPING TRACK BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT 
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK SPEED AND THE TIMING OF THE LOOP. IN VIEW 
OF THIS COMPLEX STEERING AND THE LARGE VARIANCE IN THE NUMERICAL 
MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK 
FORECAST.//
NNNN
Typhoon FENGSHEN JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN51 PGTW 170300    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 26W NWP 191117003451
2019111700 26W FENGSHEN   023  02 090 26 SATL 010
T000 266N 1522E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 105 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD 
T012 259N 1556E 060 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD 
T024 248N 1564E 040 R034 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD 
T036 236N 1558E 025 
T048 231N 1542E 020 
AMP
    036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TYPHOON 26W (FENGSHEN) WARNING NR 023    
1. TYPHOON 26W (FENGSHEN) WARNING NR 023    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170000Z --- NEAR 26.6N 152.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.6N 152.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 25.9N 155.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 24.8N 156.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 23.6N 155.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 23.1N 154.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 26.4N 153.1E.
17NOV19. TYPHOON 26W (FENGSHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 599 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
170000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z 
AND 180300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNINGS 
2619110706  90N1798E  15
2619110712  90N1792E  15
2619110718  90N1786E  15
2619110800  90N1780E  15
2619110806  92N1773E  15
2619110812  93N1763E  15
2619110818  94N1754E  15
2619110900  99N1744E  15
2619110906 108N1731E  15
2619110912 109N1724E  15
2619110918 110N1717E  15
2619111000 109N1710E  15
2619111006 112N1699E  15
2619111012 119N1692E  15
2619111018 128N1684E  20
2619111100 132N1680E  20
2619111106 140N1665E  20
2619111112 143N1649E  25
2619111118 147N1637E  25
2619111200 151N1623E  30
2619111206 156N1607E  30
2619111212 161N1593E  35
2619111218 169N1578E  35
2619111300 172N1560E  40
2619111306 171N1545E  45
2619111312 169N1530E  50
2619111312 169N1530E  50
2619111318 170N1515E  50
2619111318 170N1515E  50
2619111400 170N1498E  50
2619111400 170N1498E  50
2619111406 172N1480E  55
2619111406 172N1480E  55
2619111412 175N1465E  55
2619111412 175N1465E  55
2619111418 182N1451E  65
2619111418 182N1451E  65
2619111418 182N1451E  65
2619111500 191N1437E  80
2619111500 191N1437E  80
2619111500 191N1437E  80
2619111506 201N1427E  95
2619111506 201N1427E  95
2619111506 201N1427E  95
2619111512 211N1422E 110
2619111512 211N1422E 110
2619111512 211N1422E 110
2619111518 225N1425E 110
2619111518 225N1425E 110
2619111518 225N1425E 110
2619111600 238N1432E 110
2619111600 238N1432E 110
2619111600 238N1432E 110
2619111606 248N1447E 110
2619111606 248N1447E 110
2619111606 248N1447E 110
2619111612 258N1468E 105
2619111612 258N1468E 105
2619111612 258N1468E 105
2619111618 267N1493E 100
2619111618 267N1493E 100
2619111618 267N1493E 100
2619111700 266N1522E  90
2619111700 266N1522E  90
2619111700 266N1522E  90
NNNN

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Tropical Storm KALMAEGI Forecast Graphic
Tropical Storm KALMAEGI Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Storm KALMAEGI Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Storm KALMAEGI Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Storm KALMAEGI Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Storm KALMAEGI Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN32 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 018    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170000Z --- NEAR 15.5N 125.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 125.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 16.1N 124.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 16.9N 123.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 17.6N 122.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 17.7N 122.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 16.1N 119.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 13.0N 115.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 11.6N 113.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 125.2E.
17NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 26W 
(FENGSHEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm KALMAEGI Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN32 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) 
WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. 
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP 
CONVECTION THAT HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE AND MOVE OUT OF A QUASI-
STATIONARY (QS) STATE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW CLOUD ELEMENT TRACING IN THE MSI LOOP AND 
LINED UP WITH A LOW CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 
WATER ANIMATION FROM CIMSS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS BASED 
ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE 
IMPROVED CONDITION. ANALYSES INDICATE A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20KT) RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS) AND COOL/DRY NORTHEASTERLY SURGE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA 
OFFSET BY A VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29C) SSTS. THE 
CYCLONE IS NOW TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM 
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 27W WILL CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD UP TO TAU 36. AFTERWARD, 
THE STR TO THE WEST WILL BUILD, REORIENT NORTHWARD, AND GRADUALLY 
STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN LUZON NEAR 
TUGUEGARAO JUST BEFORE TAU 48, THEN SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH LUZON 
BEFORE EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BEFORE TAU 72. THE 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 65KTS 
BY TAU 36 BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND LAND 
INTERACTION WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 40KTS BY TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS KALMAEGI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE SECONDARY STR IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WHERE 
THE COLD/DRY NORTHERLY SURGE IS MORE VIGOROUS. THIS, PLUS THE HIGH 
VWS, WILL RESULT IN DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE 
IN BETTER AGREEMENT BUT WITH NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED. 
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE STORM MOTION COMING OUT OF A QS 
STATE, THE ANTICIPATED SWITCH IN THE STEERING MECHANISM, AND THE 
TRACK ACROSS THE RUGGED LUZON TERRAIN, THERE IS OVERALL LOW 
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm KALMAEGI JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN52 PGTW 170300    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 27W NWP 191117004610
2019111700 27W KALMAEGI   018  02 290 03 SATL 025
T000 155N 1254E 045 R034 105 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD 
T012 161N 1247E 055 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 020 SW QD 070 NW QD 
T024 169N 1238E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 080 NW QD 
T036 176N 1229E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 160 NW QD 
T048 177N 1220E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 210 NW QD 
T072 161N 1193E 040 R034 140 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 120 NW QD 
T096 130N 1151E 030 
T120 116N 1135E 020 
AMP
    096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 018    
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 018    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170000Z --- NEAR 15.5N 125.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 125.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 16.1N 124.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 16.9N 123.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 17.6N 122.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 17.7N 122.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 16.1N 119.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 13.0N 115.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 11.6N 113.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 125.2E.
17NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 26W 
2719111018 135N1351E  15
2719111100 135N1347E  15
2719111106 131N1337E  15
2719111112 125N1330E  15
2719111118 121N1327E  20
2719111200 120N1324E  20
2719111206 119N1319E  20
2719111212 119N1314E  20
2719111218 121N1304E  25
2719111300 126N1292E  30
2719111306 129N1287E  30
2719111312 132N1284E  30
2719111318 138N1281E  30
2719111400 144N1273E  30
2719111406 148N1271E  30
2719111412 155N1267E  30
2719111418 157N1266E  30
2719111500 159N1265E  30
2719111506 160N1264E  30
2719111512 160N1262E  30
2719111518 159N1261E  35
2719111600 157N1261E  35
2719111606 156N1260E  35
2719111612 155N1259E  35
2719111618 154N1257E  35
2719111700 155N1254E  45
NNNN

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Tropical Storm RAYMOND Storm-Centered Visible

Summary for Tropical Storm Raymond (EP5/EP202019)

...RAYMOND ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING... As of 2:00 PM MST Sat Nov 16 the center of Raymond was located near 16.5, -111.8 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Raymond Public Advisory Number 8

...RAYMOND ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING...
Location: 16.5°N 111.8°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: N at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb

Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Advisory Number 8

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019

Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 8

Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

Tropical Storm Raymond Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019

Tropical Storm Raymond Graphics

Tropical Storm Raymond 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2019 20:37:17 GMT

Tropical Storm Raymond 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2019 21:24:22 GMT

Tropical Storm Raymond 5-Day Track, Uncertainty Cone, Warnings (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2019 20:37:37 GMT

Tropical Storm Raymond Best Track Information (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2019 20:37:37 GMT

Tropical Storm Raymond Best Track Information (.kmz)

GIS Data last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2019 20:37:37 GMT

Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Information (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2019 20:37:55 GMT

Tropical Storm Raymond Information by ATCF XML Prototype

Issued at Sat, 16 Nov 2019 20:34:50 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format may change without notice.
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NHC Forecast Track (Tropical Depression 21E)
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Tropical Depression 21E Storm-Centered Visible

Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E (EP1/EP212019)

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION NO STRONGER... As of 3:00 PM CST Sat Nov 16 the center of Twenty-one-E was located near 9.5, -101.0 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Public Advisory Number 3

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION NO STRONGER...
Location: 9.5°N 101.0°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb

Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019

Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019

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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2019 20:33:21 GMT

Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2019 21:31:01 GMT

Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E 5-Day Track, Uncertainty Cone, Warnings (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2019 20:33:49 GMT

Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Best Track Information (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2019 20:33:49 GMT

Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Best Track Information (.kmz)

GIS Data last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2019 20:33:49 GMT

Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Forecast Information (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2019 20:34:01 GMT

Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Information by ATCF XML Prototype

Issued at Sat, 16 Nov 2019 20:31:37 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format may change without notice.
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