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Tropical Cyclone VERONICA Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA Situation Map

Tropical Cyclone Formation

Tropical Cyclone Genesis is the technical term for the process of storm formation that leads ultimately to what are called hurricanes, typhoons, or tropical cyclones in various parts of the world.

This occurs when, in the Northern Hemisphere, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ, shifts northward out of the doldrums and atmospheric conditions become favorable for tropical cyclone formation after about the middle of May.

A series of low-pressure ripples develops within the ITCZ. These are known as tropical waves and progress from east to west. In the late season, they typically shift their movement toward the west-nothwest, or even northwest, after crossing 45° or 50° W longitude. Full Article

Tropical Cyclone VERONICA Forecast Graphic
Tropical Cyclone VERONICA Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Cyclone VERONICA Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Cyclone VERONICA Storm-Centered Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement)
Tropical Cyclone VERONICA Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Cyclone VERONICA Warning Text (JTWC)
WTXS32 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 024    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251200Z --- NEAR 20.4S 116.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 116.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 20.8S 115.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 21.4S 114.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 22.1S 113.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 116.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH 
FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED OVER 75 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE FULLY 
EXPOSED LLCC SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, BETWEEN 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ROEBOURNE AIRPORT AND OTHER LOCAL STATIONS 
APPROXIMATELY 20-25 NM SOUTH OF THE LLCC WHICH REPORT 33-35 KTS OF 
SUSTAINED WINDS, AND MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
OF T3.0 (45 KTS). TC 21S IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL 
WESTERLIES WITH HIGH VWS AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPID WEAKENING 
AS IT TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED TO 
THE SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, LAND INTERACTION, HIGH VWS, AND SIGNIFICANT 
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM 
TRACKS NORTH OF LEARMONTH, THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE ENHANCED 
EASTERLY GRADIENT WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS OVER LEARMONTH. OVERALL, 
THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH A 100NM 
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
251200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 
261500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone VERONICA JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTXS52 PGTW 251500    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 21S SIO 190325131701
2019032512 21S VERONICA   024  02 270 02 SATL 030
T000 204S 1169E 040 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD 
T012 208S 1155E 035 R034 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD 
T024 214S 1142E 035 R034 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD 
T036 221S 1130E 030 
AMP
    024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 024    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 024    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251200Z --- NEAR 20.4S 116.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 116.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 20.8S 115.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 21.4S 114.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 22.1S 113.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 116.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2119031806 130S1233E  20
2119031812 135S1225E  20
2119031818 139S1218E  30
2119031900 141S1213E  30
2119031906 144S1208E  30
2119031912 146S1202E  35
2119031918 150S1196E  40
2119032000 154S1190E  50
2119032000 154S1190E  50
2119032006 156S1183E  55
2119032006 156S1183E  55
2119032012 157S1179E  75
2119032012 157S1179E  75
2119032012 157S1179E  75
2119032018 159S1177E 110
2119032018 159S1177E 110
2119032018 159S1177E 110
2119032100 163S1176E 125
2119032100 163S1176E 125
2119032100 163S1176E 125
2119032106 168S1175E 125
2119032106 168S1175E 125
2119032106 168S1175E 125
2119032112 172S1173E 115
2119032112 172S1173E 115
2119032112 172S1173E 115
2119032118 175S1170E 110
2119032118 175S1170E 110
2119032118 175S1170E 110
2119032200 176S1169E 110
2119032200 176S1169E 110
2119032200 176S1169E 110
2119032206 178S1169E 110
2119032206 178S1169E 110
2119032206 178S1169E 110
2119032212 180S1169E  95
2119032212 180S1169E  95
2119032212 180S1169E  95
2119032218 182S1169E  90
2119032218 182S1169E  90
2119032218 182S1169E  90
2119032300 187S1170E  80
2119032300 187S1170E  80
2119032300 187S1170E  80
2119032306 190S1171E  85
2119032306 190S1171E  85
2119032306 190S1171E  85
2119032312 194S1173E 100
2119032312 194S1173E 100
2119032312 194S1173E 100
2119032318 198S1175E 105
2119032318 198S1175E 105
2119032318 198S1175E 105
2119032400 200S1176E 115
2119032400 200S1176E 115
2119032400 200S1176E 115
2119032406 202S1177E  90
2119032406 202S1177E  90
2119032406 202S1177E  90
2119032412 203S1177E  75
2119032412 203S1177E  75
2119032412 203S1177E  75
2119032418 204S1177E  55
2119032418 204S1177E  55
2119032500 205S1175E  45
2119032506 204S1171E  40
2119032512 204S1169E  40
NNNN

Radar

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA Forecast Graphic
Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA Storm-Centered Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement)
Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA Warning Text (JTWC)
WTXS31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 015    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251200Z --- NEAR 18.3S 62.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 62.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 19.1S 63.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 19.8S 64.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 20.6S 64.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 20.9S 65.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 21.8S 66.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 23.7S 67.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 26.4S 68.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 63.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DEEPENING EYEWALL 
SURROUNDING A RAGGED BUT PERSISTENT 20 NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION 
IS BASED ON THE EYE IN THE MSI IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0-5.5 (90-102 KNOTS), BETWEEN A 
250953Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 97 KTS AND AN 251145Z AUTOMATED DVORAK 
ESTIMATE OF T5.8 (110 KTS). TC 22S IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH A ROBUST POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM 
(28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 22S IS 
CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO A COMPETING STEERING 
ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WITHIN THIS STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH 
TAU 72 AS A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, CAUSING THE 
STR TO THE EAST TO RE-ORIENT. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST 
TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS IN FROM THE 
EAST. DUE TO THIS COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE DYNAMIC MODELS 
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE AND NAVGEM INDICATING 
FASTER TRACK SPEEDS INTO THE STR, WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE JTWC 
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLOWER THAN AND WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL 
CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY 
SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 12 IN THE FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, SLOW MOTION IN A LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 
ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION POTENTIAL. AFTER TAU 
72, SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS 
INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL 
WESTERLIES. TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AT 
TAU 96 AS IT MOVES UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S 
(VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTXS51 PGTW 251500    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190325134337
2019032512 22S JOANINHA   015  02 150 06 SATL 020
T000 183S 0629E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 145 SE QD 130 SW QD 115 NW QD 
T012 191S 0636E 110 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD 
T024 198S 0641E 110 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD 
T036 206S 0649E 110 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD 
T048 209S 0655E 110 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD 
T072 218S 0664E 100 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 220 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD 
T096 237S 0673E 080 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 260 SE QD 230 SW QD 160 NW QD 
T120 264S 0682E 060 R050 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 300 SE QD 240 SW QD 190 NW QD 
AMP
    096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 015    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 015    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251200Z --- NEAR 18.3S 62.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 62.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 19.1S 63.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 19.8S 64.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 20.6S 64.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 20.9S 65.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 21.8S 66.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 23.7S 67.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 26.4S 68.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 63.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2219031906 117S 631E  20
2219031912 121S 630E  20
2219031918 124S 628E  25
2219032000 127S 624E  25
2219032006 128S 618E  25
2219032012 126S 612E  25
2219032018 126S 610E  25
2219032100 126S 608E  25
2219032106 128S 607E  25
2219032112 132S 613E  25
2219032118 138S 620E  30
2219032200 145S 625E  35
2219032206 147S 627E  35
2219032212 151S 625E  40
2219032218 156S 623E  45
2219032300 160S 623E  55
2219032300 160S 623E  55
2219032306 163S 621E  55
2219032306 163S 621E  55
2219032312 165S 619E  60
2219032312 165S 619E  60
2219032318 167S 617E  65
2219032318 167S 617E  65
2219032318 167S 617E  65
2219032400 170S 616E  75
2219032400 170S 616E  75
2219032400 170S 616E  75
2219032406 171S 617E  80
2219032406 171S 617E  80
2219032406 171S 617E  80
2219032412 172S 618E  85
2219032412 172S 618E  85
2219032412 172S 618E  85
2219032418 174S 619E  95
2219032418 174S 619E  95
2219032418 174S 619E  95
2219032500 175S 621E  95
2219032500 175S 621E  95
2219032500 175S 621E  95
2219032506 178S 626E 100
2219032506 178S 626E 100
2219032506 178S 626E 100
2219032512 183S 629E 105
2219032512 183S 629E 105
2219032512 183S 629E 105
NNNN

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