Tropical Depression LEEPI | Tropical Storm BEBINCA | Tropical Storm LANE | Tropical Storm RUMBIA | Subtropical Storm ERNESTO | Tropical Depression 22W | HurricaneZone.net - Worldwide Tropical Cyclones™
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Tropical Depression LEEPI Tropical Storm BEBINCA Tropical Storm LANE Tropical Storm RUMBIA Tropical Storm LANE Tropical Depression 22W Situation Map

What is a Hurricane?

A hurricane (or typhoon, or severe tropical cyclone), the strongest storm on Earth, is a cyclonic (rotary) storm that derives its energy from cloud formation and rainfall, unlike frontal cyclones that derive their power from a temperature gradient. Full Article

The Saffir-Simpson Scale

Category 1 – 74-95 mph (64-82 knots; 119-153 km/hr). Damage is limited to foliage, signage, unanchored boats and mobile homes. There is no significant damage to buildings. The main threat to life and property may be flooding from heavy rains.

Category 2 – 96-110 mph (83-95 knots; 154-177 km/hr). Roof damage to buildings. Doors and windows damaged. Mobile homes severely damaged. Piers damaged by storm surge. Some trees blown down, more extensive limb damage. Full Article

Tropical Cyclone Formation

Tropical Cyclone Genesis is the technical term for the process of storm formation that leads ultimately to what are called hurricanes, typhoons, or tropical cyclones in various parts of the world.

This occurs when, in the Northern Hemisphere, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ, shifts northward out of the doldrums and atmospheric conditions become favorable for tropical cyclone formation after about the middle of May. Full Article

Tropical Depression LEEPI Forecast Graphic
Tropical Depression LEEPI Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Depression LEEPI Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Depression LEEPI Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Depression LEEPI Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Depression LEEPI Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 020    
   05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151800Z --- NEAR 36.5N 130.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 36.5N 130.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 37.3N 133.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 38.2N 139.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 36.7N 130.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 97 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON 
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM 
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 9 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL 
CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL 
STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. 
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) 
WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Tropical Depression LEEPI Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 
19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 54 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH LIMITED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY 
FIX INTENSITIES OF T2.0 TO T2.5 (30-35 KNOTS). A BUOY OBSERVATION 
FROM ABOUT 30 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST REPORTED A 27 KT OBSERVATION AT 
151200Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR 
INTENSIFICATION AS AN APPROACHING TROUGH IS BRINGING MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-25 KTS WHICH IS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ABOUT 28 CELSIUS. 
TD 19W IS TRACKING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 19W IS ABOUT TO FINISH ROUNDING THE STR AXIS AND WILL BEGIN 
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 
IS STARTING TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE 
THAT HAS CAUSED A SHORT PERIOD OF ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND 
STEADILY INCREASING VWS. AS A RESULT OF THE HIGH VWS, TD 19W WILL 
WEAKEN UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE BY AROUND 
TAU 36. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SIMILAR TRACK 
TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS LOW BECAUSE OF SIGNIFICANT 
SPREAD IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED BETWEEN THE MODELS.//
NNNN
Tropical Depression LEEPI JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN51 PGTW 152100    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 19W NWP 180815201058
2018081518 19W LEEPI      020  05 040 08 SATL 060
T000 365N 1301E 030 
T012 373N 1333E 030 
T024 382N 1391E 025 
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    012HR EXTRATROPICAL
    024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 020    
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 020    
   05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151800Z --- NEAR 36.5N 130.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 36.5N 130.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 37.3N 133.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 38.2N 139.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 36.7N 130.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 97 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z
IS 9 FEET.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1918080712 126N1535E  15
1918080718 126N1527E  15
1918080800 126N1520E  15
1918080806 126N1514E  15
1918080812 126N1507E  15
1918080818 127N1500E  15
1918080900 129N1496E  15
1918080906 131N1494E  15
1918080912 138N1492E  15
1918080918 149N1484E  15
1918081000 159N1468E  20
1918081006 169N1461E  20
1918081012 171N1454E  20
1918081018 176N1446E  20
1918081100 183N1444E  35
1918081106 191N1440E  45
1918081112 200N1435E  60
1918081112 200N1435E  60
1918081118 207N1430E  55
1918081118 207N1430E  55
1918081200 216N1426E  60
1918081200 216N1426E  60
1918081206 228N1421E  60
1918081206 228N1421E  60
1918081212 237N1415E  65
1918081212 237N1415E  65
1918081212 237N1415E  65
1918081218 247N1406E  65
1918081218 247N1406E  65
1918081218 247N1406E  65
1918081300 257N1396E  65
1918081300 257N1396E  65
1918081306 265N1386E  65
1918081306 265N1386E  65
1918081306 265N1386E  65
1918081312 274N1378E  55
1918081312 274N1378E  55
1918081318 282N1371E  60
1918081318 282N1371E  60
1918081400 293N1361E  60
1918081400 293N1361E  60
1918081406 304N1349E  55
1918081406 304N1349E  55
1918081412 316N1331E  55
1918081412 316N1331E  55
1918081418 322N1312E  45
1918081500 339N1300E  35
1918081506 349N1294E  30
1918081512 359N1295E  30
1918081518 365N1301E  30
NNNN

Radar

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Tropical Storm BEBINCA Forecast Graphic
Tropical Storm BEBINCA Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Storm BEBINCA Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Storm BEBINCA Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Storm BEBINCA Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Storm BEBINCA Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN33 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 015    
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160000Z --- NEAR 20.1N 108.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 108.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 19.5N 107.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 19.5N 105.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 19.6N 103.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 20.3N 101.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 108.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 156 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
160000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 
170300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) 
WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL 
STORM 22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm BEBINCA Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN33 PGTW 160300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNING 
NR 15 CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
  TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 156 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WHICH IS UNDERGOING A PERIOD OF RAPID 
INTENSIFICATION. THE LLLC IS OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST 
HOWEVER, A 160041Z GPM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED A CLEAR 
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WITH DEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE 
WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH 
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS 
FROM THE REGION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, A 
T3.0 AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATE AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 49 KNOTS. 
A THREE-HOURLY SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION FROM BACH LONG VI, VIETNAM, AT 
THAT TIME, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM AHEAD OF THE LLCC, REPORTED 37 KNOTS 
AND A PRESSURE OF 995 MB, CONFIRMING THE OVERALL PLACEMENT AND 
INTENSITY ASSESSMENTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE 
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT HAS REMAINED STAGNANT SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST, WITH MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) VWS, STRONG WESTWARD DIVERGENT 
OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM SSTS (31 DEG C). TS 20W CONTINUES TO TRACK 
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP STR LOCATED OVER 
CENTRAL CHINA. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.     
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, OTHER THAN TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY 
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. 
   B. TS 20W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD 
THROUGH TAU 12, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG STR ANCHORED OVER 
CENTRAL CHINA, BEFORE TURNING MORE WESTWARD AND MAKING LANDFALL IN 
NORTHERN VIETNAM JUST BEFORE TAU 24. TS 20W HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD 
OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE GULF OF TONKIN AND IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO 
LANDFALL. PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS EXPECTED JUST PRIOR TO 
LANDFALL, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD UNDER FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, TS 20W WILL TRACK 
INTO NORTHERN LAOS BY TAU 48, WHILE RAPIDLY DISSIPATING DUE TO 
INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE 
IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH ALL 
MODELS EXCEPT HWRF IN AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRACK SCENARIO. HWRF 
CONTINUES TO TRACK THE SYSTEM DUE SOUTH, LOOP BACK TO THE WEST AND 
THEN NORTH BACK OVER THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA. THIS SCENARIO IS HIGHLY 
UNLIKELY BASED ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, AND IS THEREFORE 
DISCOUNTED. WITH THE INCREASED AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS, THERE IS 
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: INCORRECT PROGNOSTIC REASONING 
RELEASED.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm BEBINCA JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN53 PGTW 160300    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 20W NWP 180816021456
2018081600 20W BEBINCA    015  05 250 13 SATL 060
T000 201N 1085E 050 R034 065 NE QD 030 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD 
T012 195N 1072E 055 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 045 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD 
T024 195N 1054E 060 R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD 
T036 196N 1037E 040 
T048 203N 1017E 020 
AMP
    036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 015    
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 015    
   05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160000Z --- NEAR 20.1N 108.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 108.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 19.5N 107.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 19.5N 105.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 19.6N 103.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 20.3N 101.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 108.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 156 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2018080712 152N1140E  20
2018080718 156N1139E  20
2018080800 158N1130E  20
2018080806 160N1126E  20
2018080812 165N1126E  20
2018080818 170N1126E  20
2018080900 175N1126E  20
2018080906 181N1121E  20
2018080912 187N1113E  20
2018080918 193N1112E  20
2018081000 198N1111E  20
2018081006 204N1111E  20
2018081012 207N1114E  20
2018081018 209N1117E  20
2018081100 215N1118E  20
2018081106 217N1115E  20
2018081112 217N1112E  20
2018081118 213N1111E  20
2018081200 210N1119E  20
2018081206 209N1121E  20
2018081212 206N1124E  25
2018081218 206N1127E  30
2018081300 206N1129E  30
2018081306 206N1131E  35
2018081312 206N1132E  35
2018081318 206N1136E  40
2018081400 209N1139E  40
2018081406 210N1137E  40
2018081412 210N1135E  35
2018081418 209N1131E  35
2018081500 207N1121E  35
2018081506 211N1115E  35
2018081512 209N1107E  35
2018081518 206N1098E  35
2018081600 201N1085E  50
NNNN

Radar

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

NHC Forecast Track (Tropical Storm LANE)
Tropical Storm LANE Forecast Track (National Hurricane Center)
Tropical Storm LANE Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Storm LANE Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Storm LANE Storm-Centered Visible

Summary for Tropical Storm Lane (EP4/EP142018)

...LANE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 the center of Lane was located near 10.4, -125.6 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Lane Public Advisory Number 5

...LANE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY...
Location: 10.4°N 125.6°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb

Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Advisory Number 5

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 16 2018

Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Tropical Storm Lane Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 16 2018

Tropical Storm Lane Graphics

Tropical Storm Lane 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 02:35:33 GMT

Tropical Storm Lane 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 03:28:16 GMT

Tropical Storm Lane 5-Day Track, Uncertainty Cone, Warnings (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 02:35:55 GMT

Tropical Storm Lane Best Track Information (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 02:35:55 GMT

Tropical Storm Lane Best Track Information (.kmz)

GIS Data last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 02:35:55 GMT

Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Information (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 02:35:55 GMT

Tropical Storm Lane Information by ATCF XML Prototype

Issued at Thu, 16 Aug 2018 02:32:22 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format may change without notice.
SpaghettiTropical Storm LANE Spaghetti Models (UWM)

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Tropical Storm RUMBIA Forecast Graphic
Tropical Storm RUMBIA Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Storm RUMBIA Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Storm RUMBIA Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Storm RUMBIA Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Storm RUMBIA Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN34 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 005    
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160000Z --- NEAR 29.9N 124.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 29.9N 124.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 30.5N 122.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 31.2N 120.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 32.1N 117.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 30.1N 124.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
160000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 
170300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) FINAL WARNING 
(WTPN31 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNINGS 
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 22W 
(SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm RUMBIA Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN32 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 
05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM 
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS FRAGMENTED BANDED WRAPPING INTO A BROAD AND PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 152306Z GPM MICROWAVE 
PASS REVEALS HEAVY CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF 21W 
SURROUNDING A NEARLY CALM CENTER, TYPICAL OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION 
STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON FIXES FROM PGTW AND 
RJTD, AND SUPPORTED BY THE 36GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE FROM THE 
AFOREMENTIONED GMI DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 
KNOTS BASED ON A RANGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 
T2.0 TO T2.5. THE LLCC HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO CONSOLIDATE DESPITE LOW 
(5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER HEAD AND MODERATELY 
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. TRACK MOTION HAS BEEN STEADILY 
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE 
OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM 
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS RUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND 
MAKE LANDFALL NEAR SHANGHAI, CHINA AFTER TAU 12. ALTHOUGH THE 
FORECAST PEAK OF 40 KNOTS TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THAT SLIGHT 
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC MAY OCCUR GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL 
SUPPORT, THERE IS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION DUE 
TO DECLINING SSTS ALONG THE PATH OF MOTION. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL 
FORECAST.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm RUMBIA JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN54 PGTW 160300    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 21W NWP 180816013425
2018081600 21W RUMBIA     005  05 290 06 SATL 040
T000 299N 1247E 035 R034 135 NE QD 150 SE QD 090 SW QD 000 NW QD 
T012 305N 1228E 040 R034 130 NE QD 125 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD 
T024 312N 1202E 030 
T036 321N 1171E 020 
AMP
    024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 005    
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 005    
   05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160000Z --- NEAR 29.9N 124.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 29.9N 124.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 30.5N 122.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 31.2N 120.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 32.1N 117.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 30.1N 124.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2118081300 216N1302E  15
2118081306 218N1296E  15
2118081312 221N1290E  15
2118081318 224N1286E  15
2118081400 232N1279E  15
2118081406 240N1274E  15
2118081412 248N1270E  15
2118081418 257N1274E  30
2118081500 270N1274E  30
2118081506 281N1269E  30
2118081512 291N1259E  35
2118081518 297N1253E  35
2118081600 299N1247E  35
NNNN

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

NHC Forecast Track (Subtropical Storm ERNESTO)
Subtropical Storm ERNESTO Forecast Track (National Hurricane Center)
Subtropical Storm BERYL Storm-Centered Infrared
Subtropical Storm BERYL Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Subtropical Storm BERYL Storm-Centered Visible

Summary for Subtropical Storm Ernesto (AT5/AL052018)

...ERNESTO MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 15 the center of Ernesto was located near 39.7, -45.1 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 4

...ERNESTO MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
Location: 39.7°N 45.1°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: NNE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 16 2018

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 4

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 16 2018

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Graphics

Subtropical Storm Ernesto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 02:35:29 GMT

Subtropical Storm Ernesto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 03:22:06 GMT

Subtropical Storm Ernesto 5-Day Track, Uncertainty Cone, Warnings (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 02:35:51 GMT

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Best Track Information (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 02:35:51 GMT

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Best Track Information (.kmz)

GIS Data last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 02:35:51 GMT

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Information (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 02:35:51 GMT

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Information by ATCF XML Prototype

Issued at Thu, 16 Aug 2018 02:33:17 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format may change without notice.
SpaghettiSubtropical Storm ERNESTO Spaghetti Models (SFWMD)
SpaghettiSubtropical Storm ERNESTO Spaghetti Models (UWM)

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Tropical Depression 22W Forecast Graphic
Tropical Depression 22W Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Depression 22W Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Depression 22W Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Depression 22W Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Depression 22W Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN35 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 003    
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160000Z --- NEAR 15.2N 143.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 143.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 18.1N 141.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 21.1N 141.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 23.0N 140.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 24.3N 140.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 25.6N 138.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 27.6N 136.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 30.9N 132.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 142.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
160000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 
170300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) FINAL WARNING 
(WTPN31 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNINGS 
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W 
(RUMBIA) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Tropical Depression 22W Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN35 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) 
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM 
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH 
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC, AND RADAR FIX DATA FROM 
GUAM. A 160003Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE LOCATION 
OF THE LLCC AND THE WEAK CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE CURRENTLY EXHIBITED BY 
THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS STILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AND 
PRESENTS AN OVERALL RAGGED APPEARANCE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS 
RISEN TO 35 KNOTS, BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 
T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM BOTH RJTD AND PGTW, AN AUTOMATED DVORAK 
ESTIMATE OF T2.3 (33 KNOTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 41 KNOTS. TS 
22W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE 
SOUTHEAST.       
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST TRACK 
BEYOND TAU 72 HAS SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE LEFT (SOUTH) FROM THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST.     
   B. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 
THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER TO THE EAST 
AND SOUTHEAST. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE IWO TO AREA, IT WILL 
BEGIN TO SLOW, AS IT ENTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT UNDER AN 
UPPER LEVEL COL AREA. A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE 
NORTH OF TS 22W DURING THIS TIME, BUT IS CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED 
TO PULL TS 22W NORTHWARD. A STRONG, EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE BUILDS 
IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH AND AFTER TAU 48, WILL TURN TS 22W ONTO A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY 
THROUGH TAU 72, UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF LOW VWS, 
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS. A PERIOD OF RAPID 
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 72 AS DUAL-CHANNEL 
OUTFLOW SETS UP AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AFOREMENTIONED COL 
AREA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 HAS IMPROVED 
SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH ONLY A 120 NM SPREAD BETWEEN 
OUTLIERS. THEREAFTER THE MODELS START TO SPREAD AND BECOME 
INCREASINGLY BIFURCATED BETWEEN A WEST TRACK TOWARDS OKINAWA 
REPRESENTED BY NAVGEM, AND A TURN TO THE NORTH REPRESENTED BY HWRF. 
BY TAU 72, MODEL SPREAD INCREASES TO 250 NM BETWEEN THESE OUTLIERS. 
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, THERE IS 
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST.    
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW STR THAT 
DEVELOPS OVER THE MAIN JAPANESE ISLANDS. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO REACH 
ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS AT TAU 96 AND MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY 
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW VWS AND WARM SSTS WILL 
BE OFFSET BY A REDUCTION IN UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL 
MASS CONVERGENCE ON TOP OF THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN 
INCREASINGLY POOR AGREEMENT BEYOND TAU 72 AS ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE 
INDICATE A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BY AROUND TAU 96, AHEAD OF ANOTHER 
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE NAVGEM AND GALWEM MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND 
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY AND TAKE THE SYSTEM TOWARDS OKINAWA BY TAU 120, 
AND THE REMINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS LIE BETWEEN THESE TWO 
SOLUTIONS. THE JTWC OFFICIAL TRACK LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE 
CONSENSUS TRACK IN LIGHT OF THE LARGER NUMBER OF TRACKERS TRENDING 
THIS DIRECTION AND ANALYSIS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DUE TO THE 
INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS 
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
Tropical Depression 22W JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN55 PGTW 160300    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 22W NWP 180816014503
2018081600 22W TWENTYTWO  003  05 330 17 SATL 060
T000 152N 1430E 035 R034 085 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD 
T012 181N 1418E 045 R034 165 NE QD 150 SE QD 030 SW QD 080 NW QD 
T024 211N 1410E 055 R050 085 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 155 SE QD 060 SW QD 095 NW QD 
T036 230N 1405E 065 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 135 SE QD 075 SW QD 095 NW QD 
T048 243N 1401E 075 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 015 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 165 SE QD 095 SW QD 115 NW QD 
T072 256N 1388E 085 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 165 SE QD 115 SW QD 145 NW QD 
T096 276N 1361E 090 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 175 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD 
T120 309N 1320E 090 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 055 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 190 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD 
AMP
SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 003    
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 003    
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W
   05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160000Z --- NEAR 15.2N 143.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 143.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 18.1N 141.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 21.1N 141.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 23.0N 140.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 24.3N 140.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 25.6N 138.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 27.6N 136.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 30.9N 132.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 142.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2218081300  94N1536E  15
2218081306  94N1526E  15
2218081312  94N1517E  15
2218081318  94N1505E  15
2218081400  92N1501E  15
2218081406  94N1494E  15
2218081412 101N1469E  15
2218081418 110N1459E  20
2218081500 115N1452E  20
2218081506 119N1448E  20
2218081512 126N1444E  25
2218081518 137N1439E  30
2218081600 152N1430E  35
NNNN

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