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Typhoon LAN Tropical Depression 27W Situation Map
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Typhoon LAN Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
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Typhoon LAN Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Typhoon LAN Storm-Centered Visible
Typhoon LAN Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNING NR 019    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z --- NEAR 18.8N 130.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 325 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            325 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 130.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 20.4N 130.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 325 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 22.2N 130.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            390 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            345 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 24.3N 131.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 385 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            365 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            335 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            420 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 27.2N 132.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 435 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            385 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            450 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 34.8N 138.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 420 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            355 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            450 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            490 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 32 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 42.8N 150.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 395 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            475 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            385 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            355 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 130.0E.
TYPHOON 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 478 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z. REFER TO 
TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Typhoon LAN Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 478 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LARGE, CONSOLIDATING, LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO 
CONSOLIDATE, THOUGH IT REMAINS VERY BROAD, COVERING OVER 850 NM. A 
192131Z 91 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE AND A 192206Z 37 GHZ WINDSAT DEPICT DEEP 
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE 
FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED 
ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND THE PGTW 
SATELLITE FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE 
DVORAK INTENSITY ASSESSMENTS OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND 
RJTD AND IS SUPPORTED BY A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 83 KNOTS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF 
LOW (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH 
AN AREA OF VERY WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
TYPHOON LAN CURRENTLY HAS AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT EXITS THE 
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STORM, WRAPS AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY, AND 
EXTENDS EQUATORWARD. TY 25W IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE 
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE 
NORTHEAST. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. 
   B. TY 25W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 
12-24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTER CROSSING THE 
RIDGE AXIS AROUND TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AND 
RECURVE BACK TO THE NORTHEAST ON A TRACK THAT WILL PASS ALONG THE 
EAST COAST OF JAPAN. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL 
PERSIST AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL BE ENHANCED AS THE SYSTEM 
APPROACHES THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS ENHANCED OUTFLOW 
WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH THE SYSTEM 
REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS AROUND TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, 
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT 
WITH A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE 
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE TROUGH 
INTERACTION AND WESTERLIES WILL CAUSE TY 25W TO BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT, 
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. 
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY LAN WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE 
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. 
INCREASING VWS AND THE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH COOLER (<26 CELSIUS) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FROM TAU 72 THROUGH 
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72, THE 
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE A BRIEF LANDFALL BETWEEN KYOTO AND 
TOKYO. THE SYSTEM?S NORTHEASTERLY TRACK WILL TAKE IT BACK OUT OVER 
THE PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH OF SENDAI. TY LAN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO 
THE NORTHEAST AND COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96, 
BECOMING A HURRICANE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND 
FIELD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR THE TRACK 
DIRECTION, HOWEVER, VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 48 LEAD 
TO A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BY TAU 96. DUE TO THE 
UNCERTAINTY IN STORM SPEED IN THE LATER TAUS, THERE IS LOW 
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
Typhoon LAN JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN52 PGTW 200300    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25W NWP 171020012148
2017102000 25W LAN        019  02 005 08 SATL 035
T000 188N 1300E 085 R064 105 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 065 NW QD R050 190 NE QD 215 SE QD 200 SW QD 120 NW QD R034 325 NE QD 350 SE QD 325 SW QD 230 NW QD 
T012 204N 1301E 095 R064 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 055 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 140 NE QD 200 SE QD 205 SW QD 105 NW QD R034 325 NE QD 370 SE QD 330 SW QD 270 NW QD 
T024 222N 1307E 110 R064 080 NE QD 105 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 175 NE QD 215 SE QD 200 SW QD 130 NW QD R034 335 NE QD 390 SE QD 330 SW QD 345 NW QD 
T036 243N 1314E 115 R064 090 NE QD 125 SE QD 110 SW QD 065 NW QD R050 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 170 NW QD R034 385 NE QD 365 SE QD 335 SW QD 420 NW QD 
T048 272N 1326E 110 R064 095 NE QD 125 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 205 SW QD 200 NW QD R034 435 NE QD 350 SE QD 385 SW QD 450 NW QD 
T072 348N 1380E 085 R064 095 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD R050 215 NE QD 210 SE QD 205 SW QD 235 NW QD R034 420 NE QD 355 SE QD 450 SW QD 490 NW QD 
T096 428N 1507E 065 R050 210 NE QD 200 SE QD 165 SW QD 160 NW QD R034 395 NE QD 475 SE QD 385 SW QD 355 NW QD 
AMP
    072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNING NR 019    
1. TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNING NR 019    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z --- NEAR 18.8N 130.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 325 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            325 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 130.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 20.4N 130.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 325 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 22.2N 130.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            390 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            345 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 24.3N 131.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 385 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            365 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            335 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            420 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 27.2N 132.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 435 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            385 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            450 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 34.8N 138.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 420 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            355 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            450 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            490 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 32 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 42.8N 150.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 395 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            475 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            385 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            355 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 130.0E.
TYPHOON 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 478 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2517101218  83N1442E  15
2517101300  85N1435E  15
2517101306  87N1428E  15
2517101312  87N1417E  15
2517101318  87N1406E  15
2517101400  85N1397E  20
2517101406  83N1392E  20
2517101412  78N1387E  20
2517101418  79N1382E  20
2517101500  85N1379E  20
2517101506  90N1373E  20
2517101512  93N1368E  25
2517101518 101N1364E  30
2517101600 106N1357E  35
2517101606 107N1345E  35
2517101612 107N1333E  35
2517101618 106N1325E  40
2517101700 103N1321E  50
2517101706 100N1322E  50
2517101706 100N1322E  50
2517101712 104N1323E  55
2517101712 104N1323E  55
2517101718 111N1323E  60
2517101718 111N1323E  60
2517101800 119N1323E  65
2517101800 119N1323E  65
2517101800 119N1323E  65
2517101806 129N1323E  65
2517101806 129N1323E  65
2517101806 129N1323E  65
2517101812 140N1318E  65
2517101812 140N1318E  65
2517101812 140N1318E  65
2517101818 147N1314E  65
2517101818 147N1314E  65
2517101818 147N1314E  65
2517101900 154N1306E  65
2517101900 154N1306E  65
2517101900 154N1306E  65
2517101906 163N1301E  75
2517101906 163N1301E  75
2517101906 163N1301E  75
2517101912 170N1300E  75
2517101912 170N1300E  75
2517101912 170N1300E  75
2517101918 180N1299E  75
2517101918 180N1299E  75
2517101918 180N1299E  75
2517102000 188N1300E  85
2517102000 188N1300E  85
2517102000 188N1300E  85
NNNN

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Tropical Depression 27W Forecast Graphic
Tropical Depression 27W Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Depression 27W Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Depression 27W Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Depression 27W Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Depression 27W Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN33 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 002    
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z --- NEAR 11.3N 151.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 151.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 11.6N 151.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 12.3N 149.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 13.9N 148.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 16.1N 146.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 22.4N 144.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 30.1N 143.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 151.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 12 
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z. REFER 
TO TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY 
UPDATES.//
NNNN
Tropical Depression 27W Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN33 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) 
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS AN AREA OF BUILDING CONVECTION CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER A 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 192026Z 27GHZ WINDSAT 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL 
DEEP CONVECTIVE AREA FROM BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED 
ON THE PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 192224Z OSCAT 
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE 
THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE 
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OSCAT IMAGE SHOWING 35 AND 40 KNOT WIND BARBS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW 
(5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM 
(31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TS 27W HAS DEVELOPED 
A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS FLOWING INTO A TUTT CELL. THE 
SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRACKING TO THE SOUTH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR 
EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A BUILDING 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED AS PEAK INTENSITIES HAVE 
INCREASED DUE TO A POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO.
   B. TS 27W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE 
NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST 
AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. DUE TO THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL 
BEING ENHANCED BY THE TUTT CELL, A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION 
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGH TAU 36, PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 
48, TS 27W WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES 
UNFAVORABLE DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE RESULT OF 
THE SYSTEMS PROXIMITY TO TYPHOON 25W. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL 
PERSIST UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS ABSORBED BY TY 25W AROUND TAU 96. 
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE LATER TAUS FOR 
THE TRACK DIRECTION. THE INITIAL TRACK DIRECTION HAS NOT TURNED TO 
THE NORTHWEST AS RAPIDLY AS FORECAST CAUSING UNCERTAINTY IN THE 
INITIAL FORECAST TRACK. THIS UNCERTAINTY, COMBINED WITH THE COMPLEX 
NATURE OF THE FORECAST TRACK, LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC 
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
Tropical Depression 27W JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN53 PGTW 200300    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 27W NWP 171020020359
2017102000 27W TWENTYSEVE 002  02 175 09 SATL 030
T000 113N 1518E 035 R034 055 NE QD 030 SE QD 065 SW QD 080 NW QD 
T012 116N 1511E 045 R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 075 SW QD 085 NW QD 
T024 123N 1498E 055 R034 065 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 075 NW QD 
T036 139N 1480E 060 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD 
T048 161N 1465E 055 R034 050 NE QD 035 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD 
T072 224N 1444E 030 
T096 301N 1436E 020 
AMP
    072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 002    
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 002    
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z --- NEAR 11.3N 151.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 151.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 11.6N 151.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 12.3N 149.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 13.9N 148.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 16.1N 146.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 22.4N 144.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 30.1N 143.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 151.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 228 NM
NORTH OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2717101612 128N1462E  15
2717101618 132N1452E  15
2717101700 137N1443E  15
2717101706 144N1440E  15
2717101712 148N1444E  15
2717101718 151N1449E  20
2717101800 153N1457E  20
2717101806 154N1462E  20
2717101812 155N1468E  20
2717101818 152N1478E  20
2717101900 145N1488E  20
2717101906 135N1500E  20
2717101912 124N1515E  20
2717101918 122N1517E  25
2717102000 113N1518E  35
NNNN

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