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Tropical Cyclone GAJA Situation Map

Tropical Cyclone Formation

Tropical Cyclone Genesis is the technical term for the process of storm formation that leads ultimately to what are called hurricanes, typhoons, or tropical cyclones in various parts of the world.

This occurs when, in the Northern Hemisphere, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ, shifts northward out of the doldrums and atmospheric conditions become favorable for tropical cyclone formation after about the middle of May.

A series of low-pressure ripples develops within the ITCZ. These are known as tropical waves and progress from east to west. In the late season, they typically shift their movement toward the west-nothwest, or even northwest, after crossing 45° or 50° W longitude. Full Article

Tropical Cyclone GAJA Forecast Graphic
Tropical Cyclone GAJA Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Cyclone GAJA Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Cyclone GAJA Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Cyclone GAJA Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Cyclone GAJA Warning Text (JTWC)
WTIO31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (GAJA) WARNING NR 016    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141200Z --- NEAR 12.3N 84.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 84.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 11.6N 82.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 11.2N 80.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 10.9N 78.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 10.8N 75.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 11.1N 72.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 11.1N 68.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 11.3N 66.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 83.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (GAJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 667 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FLARING MASS OF CENTRAL CONVECTION AND SPIRAL 
BANDING WRAPPING IN TO THE OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON A 
141128Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION 
AND SPIRAL BANDING STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS 
BASED ON THE STEADY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 
KTS) FROM KNES, AND IS BETWEEN THE PGTW ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS), 
WHICH WAS ALSO MAINTAINED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, AND A 140738Z 
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 55 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 07B 
IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE (10 TO 15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) 
AND HAS A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SSTS) IN THE BAY OF BENGAL REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 29 AND 30 
DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 07B IS TRACKING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 
STR TO THE WEST, AND ACCELERATING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER TAU 24, TC 
07B WILL TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR OVER 
THE SOUTHERN INDIAN PENINSULA. TC 07B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY UNDER 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND REACH A PEAK OF 70 KTS BY TAU 
24, JUST PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL ON THE INDIAN PENINSULA, AFTER 
WHICH IT WILL WEAKEN DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS. AS TC 07B WILL NOW 
INTENSIFY MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE 
STRONG ENOUGH TO SURVIVE THE PASSAGE OVER THE INDIAN PENINSULA, EVEN 
IF THE LLCC AND CONVECTION ARE DECOUPLED BY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE 
JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO RUN THROUGH 120 HOURS AND DEPICTS A 
BORDERLINE SYSTEM IN THE ARABIAN SEA, WHERE SSTS WILL BE FAVORABLE, 
BUT VWS WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS DRIER. THE 
MOST RECENT GFS AND NAVGEM RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF THE INTENSITY 
FORECAST IN THE LATER TAUS, AND SHOW A MARGINAL SYSTEM WITH SLIGHT 
RE-DEVELOPMENT IN THE ARABIAN SEA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES 
THAT TC 07B WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE NEAR TERM AND THEN 
WESTWARD. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK, WITH 
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK PLACED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK 
AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN 
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z 
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.
//
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone GAJA JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTIO51 PGTW 141500    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 07B NIO 181114135017
2018111412 07B GAJA       016  01 235 09 SATL 060
T000 123N 0840E 045 R034 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD 
T012 116N 0825E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD 
T024 112N 0806E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD 
T036 109N 0784E 060 
T048 108N 0758E 045 R034 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD 
T072 111N 0721E 035 R034 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD 
T096 111N 0684E 035 R034 050 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD 
T120 113N 0660E 035 R034 070 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD 
AMP
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (GAJA) WARNING NR 016    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (GAJA) WARNING NR 016    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141200Z --- NEAR 12.3N 84.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 84.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 11.6N 82.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 11.2N 80.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 10.9N 78.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 10.8N 75.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 11.1N 72.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 11.1N 68.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 11.3N 66.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 83.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (GAJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 667 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.
//
0718110606  78N1047E  15
0718110612  78N1041E  15
0718110618  79N1034E  15
0718110700  80N1027E  15
0718110706  79N1022E  15
0718110712  80N1018E  15
0718110718  78N1014E  20
0718110800  83N1007E  20
0718110806  89N1000E  20
0718110812  98N 993E  20
0718110818 102N 981E  20
0718110900 102N 965E  20
0718110906 106N 955E  25
0718110912 110N 945E  25
0718110918 116N 931E  25
0718111000 120N 924E  25
0718111006 123N 915E  25
0718111012 127N 905E  30
0718111018 131N 897E  35
0718111100 133N 892E  40
0718111106 133N 885E  35
0718111112 131N 876E  35
0718111118 128N 874E  35
0718111200 125N 874E  35
0718111206 125N 875E  40
0718111212 126N 876E  40
0718111218 132N 877E  35
0718111300 137N 874E  35
0718111306 138N 865E  35
0718111312 136N 861E  35
0718111318 134N 857E  35
0718111400 131N 853E  40
0718111406 128N 848E  45
0718111412 123N 840E  45
NNNN

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