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Tropical Cyclone VERONICA Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA Situation Map

Tropical Cyclone Formation

Tropical Cyclone Genesis is the technical term for the process of storm formation that leads ultimately to what are called hurricanes, typhoons, or tropical cyclones in various parts of the world.

This occurs when, in the Northern Hemisphere, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ, shifts northward out of the doldrums and atmospheric conditions become favorable for tropical cyclone formation after about the middle of May.

A series of low-pressure ripples develops within the ITCZ. These are known as tropical waves and progress from east to west. In the late season, they typically shift their movement toward the west-nothwest, or even northwest, after crossing 45° or 50° W longitude. Full Article

Tropical Cyclone VERONICA Forecast Graphic
Tropical Cyclone VERONICA Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Cyclone VERONICA Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Cyclone VERONICA Storm-Centered Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement)
Tropical Cyclone VERONICA Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Cyclone VERONICA Warning Text (JTWC)
WTXS32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 020    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241200Z --- NEAR 20.7S 117.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 117.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 21.0S 117.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 21.2S 116.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 21.5S 115.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 21.8S 114.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 22.5S 111.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 117.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRUGGLING, COMPACT BALL 
OF CENTRAL CONVECTION, WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER JUST ON 
LAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH POOR CONFIDENCE ON THE 
EMBEDDED CENTER IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED 
AT 85 KTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE LAND INTERACTION AND 
CONTINUALLY DIMINISHING CONVECTION AND STRUCTURE. A 240559Z SATCON 
ESTIMATE PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL AT 241052Z WAS 79 KTS. 
241200Z OBSERVATIONS FROM ROEBOURNE AERO STATION READ 46 KTS 
SUSTAINED WIND AND 994MB MSLP. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST WITH 
A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT 
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES TO ITS SOUTH, AND LOW TO MODERATE 
(15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 21S CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AND HAS NOT YET REALIZED THE PREDICTED TURN TO THE WEST. 
THE SYSTEM WILL NOW TRACK FURTHER INLAND THAN PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED, 
LEADING TO FASTER WEAKENING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, DRY AIR 
ENTRAINMENT, AND INCREASING VWS, THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. WHILE 
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES LEARMONTH, STRONGER WINDS 
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO GRADIENT 
FLOW BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AND THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. 
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO 
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK SPEEDS, SOME NORTH-SOUTH SPREAD, AND TIMING 
OF THE WESTWARD TURN, WITH A 210NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. 
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z. REFER TO 
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone VERONICA JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTXS52 PGTW 241500    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 21S SIO 190324134514
2019032412 21S VERONICA   020  02 150 04 SATL 060
T000 207S 1179E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD 
T012 210S 1178E 070 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD 
T024 212S 1169E 050 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 035 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD 
T036 215S 1155E 040 R034 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD 
T048 218S 1141E 035 R034 015 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD 
T072 225S 1115E 030 
AMP
    048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 020    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 020    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241200Z --- NEAR 20.7S 117.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 117.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 21.0S 117.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 21.2S 116.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 21.5S 115.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 21.8S 114.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 22.5S 111.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 117.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2119031806 130S1233E  20
2119031812 135S1225E  20
2119031818 139S1218E  30
2119031900 141S1213E  30
2119031906 144S1208E  30
2119031912 146S1202E  35
2119031918 150S1196E  40
2119032000 154S1190E  50
2119032000 154S1190E  50
2119032006 156S1183E  55
2119032006 156S1183E  55
2119032012 157S1179E  75
2119032012 157S1179E  75
2119032012 157S1179E  75
2119032018 159S1177E 110
2119032018 159S1177E 110
2119032018 159S1177E 110
2119032100 163S1176E 125
2119032100 163S1176E 125
2119032100 163S1176E 125
2119032106 168S1175E 125
2119032106 168S1175E 125
2119032106 168S1175E 125
2119032112 172S1173E 115
2119032112 172S1173E 115
2119032112 172S1173E 115
2119032118 175S1170E 110
2119032118 175S1170E 110
2119032118 175S1170E 110
2119032200 176S1169E 110
2119032200 176S1169E 110
2119032200 176S1169E 110
2119032206 178S1169E 110
2119032206 178S1169E 110
2119032206 178S1169E 110
2119032212 180S1169E  95
2119032212 180S1169E  95
2119032212 180S1169E  95
2119032218 182S1169E  90
2119032218 182S1169E  90
2119032218 182S1169E  90
2119032300 187S1170E  80
2119032300 187S1170E  80
2119032300 187S1170E  80
2119032306 190S1171E  85
2119032306 190S1171E  85
2119032306 190S1171E  85
2119032312 194S1173E 100
2119032312 194S1173E 100
2119032312 194S1173E 100
2119032318 198S1175E 105
2119032318 198S1175E 105
2119032318 198S1175E 105
2119032400 201S1175E 115
2119032400 201S1175E 115
2119032400 201S1175E 115
2119032406 204S1177E 105
2119032406 204S1177E 105
2119032406 204S1177E 105
2119032412 207S1179E  85
2119032412 207S1179E  85
2119032412 207S1179E  85
NNNN

Radar

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA Forecast Graphic
Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA Storm-Centered Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement)
Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA Warning Text (JTWC)
WTXS31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 011    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241200Z --- NEAR 17.1S 61.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 61.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 17.4S 61.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 18.1S 62.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 18.9S 63.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 19.6S 64.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 20.8S 66.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 22.0S 67.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 24.0S 68.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 61.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 308 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP 
CENTRAL CONVECTION MOSTLY PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND OCCASIONALLY THE BANDING WRAPS AROUND 
TO CREATE A FORMATIVE BUT EPHEMERAL EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER IN THE MSI IMAGERY AND A MICROWAVE EYE IN A 241213Z SSMIS 
37GHZ IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR 
INTENSIFICATION WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES (28-29C) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS, BETWEEN 
A RANGE OF MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T4.5 
(77 KNOTS) TO T5.5 (102 KTS), WHILE A 240924Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 88 
KTS. A COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING, REACHING AN 
INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 24, AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY 
TO 105 KTS AT 72 HOURS. THE PREDICTED PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN SCALED 
BACK, AS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS SLACKENED. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING 
VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT AS TC 22S MOVES UNDER UPPER-LEVEL 
WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AND SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION 
BY TAU 96. TC 22S HAS MOVED SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PAST 6 
HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE 
NORTH. THE NER WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH, CAUSING TC 22S TO 
ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER TAU 12. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE 
SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERS IN NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST SPREAD AS WELL AS ALONG-
TRACK SPEED, WITH A 295 NM SPREAD AT TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST 
TRACK IS HEDGED CLOSED TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW 
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 29 FEET. 
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTXS51 PGTW 241500    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190324141503
2019032412 22S JOANINHA   011  02 155 02 SATL 040
T000 171S 0617E 085 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 125 SW QD 110 NW QD 
T012 174S 0619E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD 
T024 181S 0623E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD 
T036 189S 0631E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD 
T048 196S 0640E 105 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD 
T072 208S 0660E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD 
T096 220S 0675E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD 
T120 240S 0689E 080 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 260 SE QD 230 SW QD 120 NW QD 
AMP
    096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 011    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 011    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241200Z --- NEAR 17.1S 61.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 61.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 17.4S 61.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 18.1S 62.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 18.9S 63.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 19.6S 64.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 20.8S 66.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 22.0S 67.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 24.0S 68.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 61.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 308 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2219031906 117S 631E  20
2219031912 121S 630E  20
2219031918 124S 628E  25
2219032000 127S 624E  25
2219032006 128S 618E  25
2219032012 126S 612E  25
2219032018 126S 610E  25
2219032100 126S 608E  25
2219032106 128S 607E  25
2219032112 132S 613E  25
2219032118 138S 620E  30
2219032200 145S 625E  35
2219032206 147S 627E  35
2219032212 151S 625E  40
2219032218 156S 623E  45
2219032300 160S 623E  55
2219032300 160S 623E  55
2219032306 163S 621E  55
2219032306 163S 621E  55
2219032312 165S 619E  60
2219032312 165S 619E  60
2219032318 168S 617E  65
2219032318 168S 617E  65
2219032318 168S 617E  65
2219032400 171S 616E  75
2219032400 171S 616E  75
2219032400 171S 616E  75
2219032406 169S 616E  80
2219032406 169S 616E  80
2219032406 169S 616E  80
2219032412 171S 617E  85
2219032412 171S 617E  85
2219032412 171S 617E  85
NNNN

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