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Tropical Storm KIROGI Situation Map
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Tropical Storm KIROGI Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 31W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 006    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z --- NEAR 10.7N 111.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 111.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 10.8N 109.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 10.9N 106.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 10.8N 104.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 111.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 31W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301 NM EAST OF
HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm KIROGI Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 31W (KIROGI) WARNING 
NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 31W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301 NM EAST OF 
HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH COLLAPSING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM 
CENTER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON 
THE EXPOSED LLCC AND A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE IN A 181345Z 89GHZ 
AMSU-B IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED 
ON CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATED OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM ALL 
REPORTING AGENCIES. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE SUPPORTIVE AROUND 28 
CELSIUS, HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONE 
NORTHEAST OF TS 31W CREATING MODERATE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR, 
DISPLACING BUILDING CONVECTION AND PREVENTING ANY FURTHER 
CONSOLIDATION. TS 31W IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE 
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.  
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 31W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD GUIDED BY THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. MODERATE WIND 
SHEAR WILL PERSIST AND THE CHANCE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SEVERELY 
HINDERED AS LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM IS FORECAST AROUND TAU 18. TS 31W 
WILL CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND FULLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC 
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE 
TO THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm KIROGI JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN51 PGTW 182100    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 31W NWP 171118185235
2017111818 31W KIROGI     006  01 255 11 SATL 025
T000 107N 1118E 035 R034 055 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 070 NW QD 
T012 108N 1094E 030 
T024 109N 1068E 025 
T036 108N 1044E 020 
AMP
    024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 31W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 006    
1. TROPICAL STORM 31W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 006    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z --- NEAR 10.7N 111.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 111.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 10.8N 109.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 10.9N 106.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 10.8N 104.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 111.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 31W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301 NM EAST OF
HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.
//
3117111418  48N1331E  15
3117111500  50N1322E  15
3117111506  53N1310E  15
3117111512  57N1295E  15
3117111518  62N1283E  20
3117111600  68N1270E  20
3117111606  71N1258E  15
3117111612  70N1235E  15
3117111618  77N1218E  20
3117111700  87N1207E  20
3117111706  92N1194E  20
3117111712 101N1178E  30
3117111718 107N1166E  35
3117111800 111N1149E  40
3117111806 112N1138E  35
3117111812 110N1129E  35
3117111818 107N1118E  35
NNNN

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