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Hurricane KENNETH Tropical Storm HATO Investigation HARVEY Situation Map

What is a Hurricane?

A hurricane (or typhoon, or severe tropical cyclone), the strongest storm on Earth, is a cyclonic (rotary) storm that derives its energy from cloud formation and rainfall, unlike frontal cyclones that derive their power from a temperature gradient. Full Article

Saffir-Simpson Scale

Category 1 – 74-95 mph (64-82 knots; 119-153 km/hr). Damage is limited to foliage, signage, unanchored boats and mobile homes. There is no significant damage to buildings. The main threat to life and property may be flooding from heavy rains.

Category 2 – 96-110 mph (83-95 knots; 154-177 km/hr). Roof damage to buildings. Doors and windows damaged. Mobile homes severely damaged. Piers damaged by storm surge. Some trees blown down, more extensive limb damage. Full Article

Tropical Cyclone Formation

Tropical Cyclone Genesis is the technical term for the process of storm formation that leads ultimately to what are called hurricanes, typhoons, or tropical cyclones in various parts of the world.

This occurs when, in the Northern Hemisphere, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ, shifts northward out of the doldrums and atmospheric conditions become favorable for tropical cyclone formation after about the middle of May. Full Article

Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook
Graphic provided by Climate Prediction Center
NHC Forecast Track (Hurricane KENNETH)
Hurricane KENNETH Forecast Track (National Hurricane Center)
Hurricane KENNETH Storm-Centered Infrared
Hurricane KENNETH Storm-Centered Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement)
Hurricane KENNETH Storm-Centered Visible

Summary for Hurricane Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)

...KENNETH QUICKLY WEAKENING... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 the center of Kenneth was located near 20.0, -132.5 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Hurricane Kenneth Public Advisory Number 16

...KENNETH QUICKLY WEAKENING...
Location: 20.0°N 132.5°W
Max sustained: 90 mph
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 978 mb

Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 16

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 22 2017

Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 16

Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Hurricane Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 22 2017

Hurricane Kenneth Graphics

Hurricane Kenneth 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Aug 2017 08:41:53 GMT

Hurricane Kenneth 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Aug 2017 08:41:53 GMT

Hurricane Kenneth 5-Day Track, Uncertainty Cone, Warnings (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Tue, 22 Aug 2017 08:42:05 GMT

Hurricane Kenneth Best Track Information (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Tue, 22 Aug 2017 08:42:05 GMT

Hurricane Kenneth Best Track Information (.kmz)

GIS Data last updated Tue, 22 Aug 2017 08:42:05 GMT

Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Information (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Tue, 22 Aug 2017 08:42:05 GMT

Hurricane Kenneth Information by ATCF XML Prototype

Issued at Tue, 22 Aug 2017 08:36:42 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format may change without notice.

SpaghettiHurricane KENNETH Spaghetti Models (UWM)

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Tropical Storm HATO Forecast Graphic
Tropical Storm HATO Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Storm HATO Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Storm HATO Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Storm HATO Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Storm HATO Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (HATO) WARNING NR 010    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z --- NEAR 20.4N 118.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 118.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 21.3N 116.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 22.1N 113.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 23.0N 109.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 23.4N 106.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 118.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (HATO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 220600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z,
230300Z AND 230900Z.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm HATO Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (HATO) WARNING NR 
10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (HATO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH A FORMATIVE 20-NM DIAMETER EYE. A 220510Z AMSR2 89GHZ 
IMAGE REVEALS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH 
TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE 
FEATURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DECREASE IN CONVERGENT 
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH HAS ALLOWED 
FOR SLIGHTLY IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING 
FROM T3.5 (55 KNOTS) TO T4.0 (65 KNOTS), WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH 
THE FORMATIVE EYE. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS IMPROVED / HIGH CONFIDENCE 
IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF THE EYE FEATURE. TS 
15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-
WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. 
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BREAK PRESENT BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONES FORMING 
THE STR, A WEAK MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FILLING AND 
PROPAGATING EASTWARD, THEREFORE THERE IS NO DYNAMIC MECHANISM TO 
INITIATE ANY POLEWARD STEERING INFLUENCE.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII HAVE 
BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF A RECENT 
ASCAT IMAGE. 
   B. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR 
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL JUST 
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG NEAR TAU 24 AND WILL TRACK INLAND, RAPIDLY 
DECAYING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 
TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS OVER ROUGH TERRAIN WITH MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS 
RANGING FROM 4000 TO 6000 FEET. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT 
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST 
TRACK. TS HATO IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UNTIL IT APPROACHES LAND TO 
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 12. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE 
EXACT PEAK INTENSITY, WHICH COULD BE HIGHER IF A STRONG EYE 
DEVELOPS. THE BULK OF INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
SHOWING A PEAK INTENSITY RANGING FROM 65 TO 75 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 
24 HOURS.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm HATO JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN51 PGTW 220900    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 15W NWP 170822071446
2017082206 15W HATO       010  01 285 12 SATL 015
T000 204N 1187E 060 R050 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 125 SW QD 095 NW QD 
T012 213N 1160E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 115 SE QD 135 SW QD 105 NW QD 
T024 221N 1131E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 115 SE QD 135 SW QD 105 NW QD 
T036 230N 1099E 050 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 115 SE QD 135 SW QD 075 NW QD 
T048 234N 1067E 020 
AMP
    036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 15W (HATO) WARNING NR 010    
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (HATO) WARNING NR 010    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z --- NEAR 20.4N 118.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 118.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 21.3N 116.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 22.1N 113.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 23.0N 109.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 23.4N 106.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 118.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (HATO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 220600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z,
230300Z AND 230900Z.//
1517081818 195N1348E  15
1517081900 197N1335E  15
1517081906 198N1317E  15
1517081912 196N1305E  20
1517081918 195N1298E  20
1517082000 194N1288E  30
1517082006 194N1276E  30
1517082012 196N1264E  35
1517082018 198N1257E  35
1517082100 200N1250E  35
1517082106 201N1237E  35
1517082112 200N1226E  45
1517082118 200N1213E  45
1517082200 201N1199E  50
1517082200 201N1199E  50
1517082206 204N1187E  60
1517082206 204N1187E  60
NNNN

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