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Tropical Depression KAI-TAK Situation Map
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Tropical Depression KAI-TAK Forecast Graphic
Tropical Depression KAI-TAK Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Depression KAI-TAK Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Depression KAI-TAK Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Depression KAI-TAK Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Depression KAI-TAK Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 017    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171800Z --- NEAR 10.9N 120.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N 120.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 10.4N 118.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 9.9N 116.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 9.2N 115.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 119.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122 NM
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.//
NNNN
Tropical Depression KAI-TAK Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (KAI-TAK) 
WARNING NR 17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122 NM
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PALAWAN, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO COLLAPSE, DISPERSE, AND STRAY WESTWARD OF AN EXPOSED AND
UNRAVELING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON NEARBY OBSERVATIONS AND ON
AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE INUNDATED WITH STRONG
(30 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY STRONG
WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE REMNANT
CONVECTION. SSTS REMAIN WARM AND CONDUCIVE AT 28 CELSIUS. TD 32W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO STEER TD 32W WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE CYCLONE WILL
CROSS PALAWAN AND EMERGE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
(SCS). HOWEVER, AT THE SAME TIME, THE TD WILL ALSO BE EXPOSED TO A
WIDESPREAD GALE-FORCE NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE. IN VIEW OF THIS, VWS
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER AND LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36,
POSSIBLY SOONER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AND TRAJECTORY, LENDING OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
Tropical Depression KAI-TAK JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN51 PGTW 172100    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 32W NWP 171217194120
2017121718 32W KAI-TAK    017  01 245 14 SATL RADR 015
T000 109N 1204E 025 
T012 104N 1183E 025 
T024 099N 1166E 025 
T036 092N 1152E 020 
AMP
    024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 017    
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 017    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171800Z --- NEAR 10.9N 120.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N 120.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 10.4N 118.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 9.9N 116.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 9.2N 115.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 119.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122 NM NORTHEAST
OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 10 
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.//
3217121018  71N1345E  15
3217121100  72N1335E  15
3217121106  76N1327E  20
3217121112  82N1320E  20
3217121118  85N1319E  20
3217121200  89N1316E  15
3217121206  97N1310E  15
3217121212 107N1303E  20
3217121218 111N1297E  15
3217121300 112N1294E  20
3217121306 112N1288E  20
3217121312 113N1285E  20
3217121318 113N1283E  25
3217121400 113N1281E  30
3217121406 114N1279E  30
3217121412 115N1277E  35
3217121418 116N1277E  40
3217121500 117N1277E  45
3217121506 118N1278E  45
3217121512 116N1278E  45
3217121518 121N1271E  45
3217121600 125N1266E  50
3217121606 124N1258E  45
3217121612 123N1254E  40
3217121618 122N1249E  35
3217121700 122N1242E  30
3217121706 122N1227E  25
3217121712 115N1217E  25
3217121718 109N1204E  25
NNNN

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