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Tropical Cyclone MAHA Situation Map

Tropical Cyclone Formation

Tropical Cyclone Genesis is the technical term for the process of storm formation that leads ultimately to what are called hurricanes, typhoons, or tropical cyclones in various parts of the world.

This occurs when, in the Northern Hemisphere, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ, shifts northward out of the doldrums and atmospheric conditions become favorable for tropical cyclone formation after about the middle of May.

A series of low-pressure ripples develops within the ITCZ. These are known as tropical waves and progress from east to west. In the late season, they typically shift their movement toward the west-nothwest, or even northwest, after crossing 45° or 50° W longitude. Full Article

Tropical Cyclone MAHA (05A)Up
Tropical Cyclone MAHA Forecast Graphic
Tropical Cyclone MAHA Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)		 Tropical Cyclone MAHA Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Cyclone MAHA Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Cyclone MAHA Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Cyclone MAHA Warning Text (JTWC)
WTIO32 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 012    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020000Z --- NEAR 16.2N 68.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 68.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 17.0N 67.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 17.5N 66.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 17.8N 65.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 18.0N 63.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 18.8N 62.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 19.1N 63.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 19.5N 67.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 68.3E.
02NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DISPLAYS AN ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH INCREASED
SPIRAL BANDING SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE WITH HELP FROM A 
012123Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE THAT DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING 
INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 
PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 3.5 (55 KTS) AND A 2100Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 
51 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ENHANCED EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28C) SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE 
NORTHEAST UP TO TAU 72. AFTERWARD, A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL GREATLY WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE TC 05A TO
DEFLECT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
ENHANCE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 75KTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD,
INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FUEL
RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 105 KTS BY TAU 72 AS TC MAHA
ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS WILL PRIMARILY 
CAUSE GRADUAL DECAY DOWN TO 55KTS BY TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, BUT WITH
SIGNIFICANT SPREADING TO OVER 160NM AROUND TAU 72. IN VIEW OF THIS,
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS PLACED
NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
020000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND
030300Z.//
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone MAHA JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC) 
WTIO52 PGTW 020300    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191102015042
2019110200 05A MAHA       012  01 300 06 SATL 030
T000 162N 0686E 050 R050 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 005 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD 
T012 170N 0676E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD 
T024 175N 0665E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD 
T036 178N 0653E 075 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD 
T048 180N 0639E 090 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD 
T072 188N 0624E 105 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD 
T096 191N 0639E 080 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD 
T120 195N 0674E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD 
AMP
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 012    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 012    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020000Z --- NEAR 16.2N 68.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 68.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 17.0N 67.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 17.5N 66.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 17.8N 65.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 18.0N 63.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 18.8N 62.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 19.1N 63.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 19.5N 67.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 68.3E.
02NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301
NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 
AT 020000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z 
AND 030300Z.//
0519102900  48N 777E  20
0519102906  52N 773E  25
0519102912  58N 770E  25
0519102918  67N 765E  25
0519103000  77N 757E  30
0519103006  88N 748E  35
0519103012  99N 740E  45
0519103018 106N 736E  50
0519103100 113N 733E  55
0519103100 113N 733E  55
0519103106 120N 735E  55
0519103106 120N 735E  55
0519103112 132N 729E  55
0519103112 132N 729E  55
0519103118 141N 724E  45
0519110100 146N 715E  45
0519110106 151N 703E  45
0519110112 156N 696E  45
0519110118 159N 691E  45
0519110200 162N 686E  50
0519110200 162N 686E  50
NNNN

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