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What is a Hurricane?

A hurricane (or typhoon, or severe tropical cyclone), the strongest storm on Earth, is a cyclonic (rotary) storm that derives its energy from cloud formation and rainfall, unlike frontal cyclones that derive their power from a temperature gradient. Full Article

The Saffir-Simpson Scale

Category 1 – 74-95 mph (64-82 knots; 119-153 km/hr). Damage is limited to foliage, signage, unanchored boats and mobile homes. There is no significant damage to buildings. The main threat to life and property may be flooding from heavy rains.

Category 2 – 96-110 mph (83-95 knots; 154-177 km/hr). Roof damage to buildings. Doors and windows damaged. Mobile homes severely damaged. Piers damaged by storm surge. Some trees blown down, more extensive limb damage. Full Article

Tropical Cyclone Formation

Tropical Cyclone Genesis is the technical term for the process of storm formation that leads ultimately to what are called hurricanes, typhoons, or tropical cyclones in various parts of the world.

This occurs when, in the Northern Hemisphere, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ, shifts northward out of the doldrums and atmospheric conditions become favorable for tropical cyclone formation after about the middle of May. Full Article

Hurricane LANE Forecast Graphic
Hurricane LANE Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Hurricane LANE Storm-Centered Infrared
Hurricane LANE Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Hurricane LANE Storm-Centered Visible
Hurricane LANE Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN31 PHNC 201000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 14E (LANE) WARNING NR 022    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200600Z --- NEAR 13.7N 146.5W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 146.5W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 13.9N 148.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 14.1N 150.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 14.4N 152.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 14.7N 153.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 15.9N 156.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 17.5N 158.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 20.0N 160.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
201000Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 147.2W.
HURRICANE 14E (LANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 611 NM SOUTHEAST OF
HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201600Z, 202200Z, 210400Z AND 211000Z.//
NNNN
Hurricane LANE JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN51 PHNC 201000    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 14E NEP 180820090123
2018082006 14E LANE       022  01 275 12 SATL 020
T000 137N 1465W 110 R064 025 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 085 NW QD 
T012 139N 1486W 110 R064 025 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 085 NW QD 
T024 141N 1505W 110 R064 025 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 085 NW QD 
T036 144N 1523W 105 R064 025 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 085 NW QD 
T048 147N 1538W 095 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD 
T072 159N 1566W 085 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 095 NW QD 
T096 175N 1585W 075 
T120 200N 1605W 060 
AMP
SUBJ:  HURRICANE 14E (LANE) WARNING NR 022    
1. HURRICANE 14E (LANE) WARNING NR 022    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200600Z --- NEAR 13.7N 146.5W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 146.5W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 13.9N 148.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 14.1N 150.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 14.4N 152.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 14.7N 153.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 15.9N 156.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 17.5N 158.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 20.0N 160.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
201000Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 147.2W.
HURRICANE 14E (LANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 611 NM SOUTHEAST OF
HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201600Z, 202200Z, 210400Z AND 211000Z.
//
1418081012  90N 998W  25
1418081018  90N1009W  25
1418081100  90N1021W  25
1418081106  90N1033W  25
1418081112  90N1046W  25
1418081118  90N1060W  25
1418081200  91N1073W  25
1418081206  93N1085W  20
1418081212  96N1097W  20
1418081218  99N1109W  20
1418081300 102N1121W  20
1418081306 106N1133W  20
1418081312 109N1147W  20
1418081318 111N1159W  20
1418081400 111N1166W  25
1418081406 111N1174W  25
1418081412 111N1183W  25
1418081418 111N1194W  25
1418081500 110N1206W  30
1418081506 108N1217W  30
1418081512 107N1228W  35
1418081518 105N1239W  40
1418081600 104N1249W  45
1418081606 104N1259W  45
1418081612 104N1269W  50
1418081612 104N1269W  50
1418081618 105N1279W  55
1418081618 105N1279W  55
1418081700 110N1292W  65
1418081700 110N1292W  65
1418081700 110N1292W  65
1418081706 112N1307W  70
1418081706 112N1307W  70
1418081706 112N1307W  70
1418081712 112N1321W  85
1418081712 112N1321W  85
1418081712 112N1321W  85
1418081718 113N1336W  90
1418081718 113N1336W  90
1418081718 113N1336W  90
1418081800 116N1349W 100
1418081800 116N1349W 100
1418081800 116N1349W 100
1418081806 119N1362W 115
1418081806 119N1362W 115
1418081806 119N1362W 115
1418081812 121N1375W 120
1418081812 121N1375W 120
1418081812 121N1375W 120
1418081818 124N1389W 120
1418081818 124N1389W 120
1418081818 124N1389W 120
1418081900 126N1403W 115
1418081900 126N1403W 115
1418081900 126N1403W 115
1418081906 128N1416W 110
1418081906 128N1416W 110
1418081906 128N1416W 110
1418081912 131N1429W 105
1418081912 131N1429W 105
1418081912 131N1429W 105
1418081918 134N1441W 110
1418081918 134N1441W 110
1418081918 134N1441W 110
1418082000 136N1453W 105
1418082000 136N1453W 105
1418082000 136N1453W 105
1418082006 137N1465W 110
1418082006 137N1465W 110
1418082006 137N1465W 110
NNNN
SpaghettiHurricane LANE Spaghetti Models (UWM)

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Typhoon SOULIK Forecast Graphic
Typhoon SOULIK Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Typhoon SOULIK Storm-Centered Infrared
Typhoon SOULIK Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Typhoon SOULIK Storm-Centered Visible
Typhoon SOULIK Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN35 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 021    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201200Z --- NEAR 26.4N 134.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.4N 134.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 27.6N 132.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 29.0N 130.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 30.7N 128.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 32.6N 126.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 37.2N 126.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 42.7N 128.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 46.3N 129.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 134.0E.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST OF KADENA
AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Typhoon SOULIK Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN35 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST OF KADENA 
AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 
AN APPROXIMATELY 40 NM WIDE EYE IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE APPEARS ANNULAR WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM 
CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 
100 KNOTS, CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS 
GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (5-
10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 
ABOUT 28 CELSIUS. TY 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. 
   B. THROUGH TAU 36, TY 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE STR TO THE NORTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT 
THROUGH TAU 36 BUT SPREAD BEGINS TO GROW AS THE CYCLONE STARTS 
ROUNDING THE STR AXIS AROUND TAU 48. BECAUSE THE CYCLONE HAS TAKEN 
ON AN ANNULAR APPEARANCE, THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING VWS 
AND LAND INTERACTION OVER KOREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING THE 
CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF 
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE 
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, SOLELY DUE TO THE 
INCREASING SPREAD AFTER TAU 36 AS 22W ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. 
   C. TY 22W WILL BEGIN TRACKING INLAND OVER KOREA AROUND TAU 72. 
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL 
TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE 
BAROCLINIC ZONE. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK HAS GROWN CONSIDERABLY 
WITH THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUN. THIS RUN, THE WESTERNMOST MODELS 
KEEP THE LLCC OVER THE YELLOW SEA WHILE THE EASTERNMOST MODELS BRING 
THE CYCLONE ASHORE NEAR BUSAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY 
FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS TRACK AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. 
THROUGHOUT THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, HIGH VWS AND LAND 
INTERACTION ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TY 22W, AND THE INTENSITY IS 
EXPECTED TO FALL TO 20 KNOTS AS IT COMPLETES ETT AROUND TAU 120. 
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW DUE TO HIGH 
UNCERTAINTY DURING AND AFTER ROUNDING THE STR AXIS.//
NNNN
Typhoon SOULIK JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN55 PGTW 201500    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 22W NWP 180820130745
2018082012 22W SOULIK     021  02 295 10 SATL 030
T000 264N 1345E 100 R064 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 150 SE QD 145 SW QD 165 NW QD 
T012 276N 1323E 100 R064 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 165 NW QD 
T024 290N 1300E 100 R064 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 125 NE QD 105 SE QD 080 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 185 SE QD 140 SW QD 165 NW QD 
T036 307N 1280E 100 R064 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 105 SE QD 080 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 185 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD 
T048 326N 1267E 090 R064 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 110 SE QD 075 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD 125 SW QD 140 NW QD 
T072 372N 1268E 060 R050 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 175 SE QD 115 SW QD 120 NW QD 
T096 427N 1286E 040 R034 135 NE QD 100 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD 
T120 463N 1299E 020 
AMP
    096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 021    
1. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 021    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201200Z --- NEAR 26.4N 134.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.4N 134.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 27.6N 132.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 29.0N 130.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 30.7N 128.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 32.6N 126.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 37.2N 126.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 42.7N 128.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 46.3N 129.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 134.0E.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST OF KADENA
AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2218081300  94N1536E  15
2218081306  94N1526E  15
2218081312  94N1517E  15
2218081318  94N1505E  15
2218081400  92N1501E  15
2218081406  94N1494E  15
2218081412 101N1469E  15
2218081418 110N1459E  20
2218081500 115N1452E  20
2218081506 119N1448E  20
2218081512 126N1444E  25
2218081518 137N1439E  30
2218081600 152N1431E  35
2218081606 169N1424E  45
2218081612 185N1419E  55
2218081612 185N1419E  55
2218081618 202N1415E  60
2218081618 202N1415E  60
2218081700 217N1409E  65
2218081700 217N1409E  65
2218081700 217N1409E  65
2218081706 231N1403E  75
2218081706 231N1403E  75
2218081706 231N1403E  75
2218081712 237N1401E  80
2218081712 237N1401E  80
2218081712 237N1401E  80
2218081718 242N1401E  85
2218081718 242N1401E  85
2218081718 242N1401E  85
2218081800 246N1401E  90
2218081800 246N1401E  90
2218081800 246N1401E  90
2218081806 249N1401E  95
2218081806 249N1401E  95
2218081806 249N1401E  95
2218081812 248N1399E 100
2218081812 248N1399E 100
2218081812 248N1399E 100
2218081818 249N1397E 105
2218081818 249N1397E 105
2218081818 249N1397E 105
2218081900 251N1391E 100
2218081900 251N1391E 100
2218081900 251N1391E 100
2218081906 251N1387E 100
2218081906 251N1387E 100
2218081906 251N1387E 100
2218081912 252N1381E  95
2218081912 252N1381E  95
2218081912 252N1381E  95
2218081918 256N1373E  95
2218081918 256N1373E  95
2218081918 256N1373E  95
2218082000 257N1365E  95
2218082000 257N1365E  95
2218082000 257N1365E  95
2218082006 260N1355E 100
2218082006 260N1355E 100
2218082006 260N1355E 100
2218082012 264N1345E 100
2218082012 264N1345E 100
2218082012 264N1345E 100
NNNN

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Tropical Storm CIMARON Forecast Graphic
Tropical Storm CIMARON Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Storm CIMARON Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Storm CIMARON Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Storm CIMARON Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Storm CIMARON Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 012    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201200Z --- NEAR 18.6N 147.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 147.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 20.2N 145.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 22.0N 143.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 24.3N 140.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 27.1N 138.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 34.1N 135.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 41.1N 138.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 44.5N 146.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 147.0E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 101 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PAGAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm CIMARON Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 101 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PAGAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO AN PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE 
SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED 
ON A 201128Z MHS 89 GHZ IMAGE WHICH SHOWS RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO A 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED 
ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 
KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH MODERATE 
(10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(ABOUT 29 CELSIUS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR UNTIL ROUNDING 
THE RIDGE AXIS AT ABOUT TAU 72. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN 
FAVORABLE AND SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION UNTIL 23W REACHES A 
PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KTS AROUND TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE 
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS TY 23W MOVES 
AWAY FROM A TUTT CELL THAT IS CURRENTLY AIDING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
CHANNEL. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK THROUGH TAU 
48 BUT SPREAD INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AS TY 23W ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. 
NOTABLY, THE GALWEM MODEL HAS SHIFTED TO BE A SOUTHERN OUTLIER, WITH 
A TRACK THAT BRINGS THE CYCLONE NEAR SASEBO AT TAU 72. THE JTWC 
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH 
POOR CONFIDENCE DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY ONCE THE CYCLONE NEARS THE 
STR AXIS.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL TURN POLEWARD, EVENTUALLY 
ATTAINING AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AT 
TAU 120. TRACK UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO GROW DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN 
RATE OF TURNING AND ALONG-TRACK SPEED BETWEEN THE MODELS. LAND 
INTERACTION AND HIGH VWS WILL CAUSE TY 23W TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT 
TRACKS OVER HONSHU INTO COOLER WATER AND INTERACTS WITH A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY 
CONSENSUS, WITHIN 5-10 KNOTS OF THE MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE 
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS 
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK DIRECTION 
AND SPEED AFTER THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE STR AXIS.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm CIMARON JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN51 PGTW 201500    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 23W NWP 180820134548
2018082012 23W CIMARON    012  02 335 11 SATL 050
T000 186N 1475E 065 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 000 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 180 SW QD 120 NW QD 
T012 202N 1454E 075 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 205 SE QD 160 SW QD 155 NW QD 
T024 220N 1431E 080 R064 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 225 SE QD 155 SW QD 180 NW QD 
T036 243N 1407E 085 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 225 NE QD 225 SE QD 160 SW QD 170 NW QD 
T048 271N 1381E 080 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 105 SE QD 055 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 195 SE QD 155 SW QD 145 NW QD 
T072 341N 1352E 065 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 095 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 170 SE QD 165 SW QD 130 NW QD 
T096 411N 1388E 040 R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 075 NW QD 
T120 445N 1468E 030 
AMP
    096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 012    
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 012    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201200Z --- NEAR 18.6N 147.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 147.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 20.2N 145.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 22.0N 143.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 24.3N 140.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 27.1N 138.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 34.1N 135.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 41.1N 138.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 44.5N 146.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 147.0E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 101 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PAGAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2318081512 133N1645E  20
2318081518 132N1631E  20
2318081600 132N1617E  20
2318081606 131N1608E  20
2318081612 127N1593E  20
2318081618 126N1588E  20
2318081700 126N1583E  20
2318081706 127N1581E  20
2318081712 130N1569E  20
2318081718 133N1556E  25
2318081800 137N1547E  30
2318081806 141N1545E  35
2318081812 144N1537E  35
2318081818 147N1529E  40
2318081900 151N1522E  40
2318081906 156N1511E  45
2318081912 160N1505E  55
2318081912 160N1505E  55
2318081918 165N1498E  60
2318081918 165N1498E  60
2318082000 170N1488E  65
2318082000 170N1488E  65
2318082000 170N1488E  65
2318082006 176N1480E  65
2318082006 176N1480E  65
2318082006 176N1480E  65
2318082012 186N1475E  65
2318082012 186N1475E  65
2318082012 186N1475E  65
NNNN

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