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Tropical Cyclone KENNETH Tropical Cyclone LORNA Situation Map

Tropical Cyclone Formation

Tropical Cyclone Genesis is the technical term for the process of storm formation that leads ultimately to what are called hurricanes, typhoons, or tropical cyclones in various parts of the world.

This occurs when, in the Northern Hemisphere, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ, shifts northward out of the doldrums and atmospheric conditions become favorable for tropical cyclone formation after about the middle of May.

A series of low-pressure ripples develops within the ITCZ. These are known as tropical waves and progress from east to west. In the late season, they typically shift their movement toward the west-nothwest, or even northwest, after crossing 45° or 50° W longitude. Full Article

Tropical Cyclone KENNETH Forecast Graphic
Tropical Cyclone KENNETH Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Cyclone KENNETH Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Cyclone KENNETH Storm-Centered Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement)
Tropical Cyclone KENNETH Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Cyclone KENNETH Warning Text (JTWC)
WTXS31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 008    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z --- NEAR 11.2S 43.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 43.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 11.5S 41.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 11.9S 40.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 12.2S 39.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 12.4S 39.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 42.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM
NORTH OF COMOROS ISLAND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY 
REVEALS A NEW EYE AND STRONG CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE IN THE EIR 
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK 
FIXES OF T5.5 (102 KTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES DUE TO THE EMERGENT EYE. 
HOWEVER, IT IS A COMPACT SYSTEM. THE 241800Z OBSERVATION FROM HAHAYA 
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ON COMOROS ISLAND, 30 NM TO THE SOUTH, 
REPORTED WINDS RISING, CURRENTLY AT 36 KTS, AND PRESSURE FALLING, 
CURRENTLY AT 1000MB. LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND WELL-DEFINED WESTWARD AND 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN 
THE NEAR TERM. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 24S WILL TRACK 
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 
24S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TO 110 KTS IN THE NEXT 12 
HOURS UNDER CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BEFORE 
MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 18. TC 24S WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT 
MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE COAST. THE CURRENT 
FORECAST HAS TC 24S DISSIPATING OVER LAND AFTER TAU 48. HOWEVER, THE 
FLAT TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE AND CONTINUED LOW VWS MAY ALLOW 
THE CIRCULATION TO REMAIN ORGANIZED OVER LAND. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH 
WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH AND CAUSE THE CURRENT DOMINANT STEERING 
STR TO RE-ORIENT AND ALLOW ANOTHER STR TO BUILD IN FROM THE 
SOUTHWEST, BRINGING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT 
MAY PUSH THE REMNANTS OF TC 24S BACK OVER WATER AROUND TAU 96-120. 
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM, 
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. GUIDANCE AFTER 
THE FORECAST PERIOD DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH SOME MODELS LOOPING 
THEN RECURVING TC 24S TO THE NORTHEAST AND RE-EMERGING OVER WATER, 
SOME MODELS MOVING TC 24S NORTHWARD BUT REMAINING OVER LAND, AND 
UKMET TURNING TC 24S TO THE SOUTH BACK OVER WATER. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S 
(LORNA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone KENNETH JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTXS51 PGTW 242100    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 24S SIO 190424194602
2019042418 24S KENNETH    008  02 265 11 SATL 010
T000 112S 0433E 100 R064 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 075 NW QD 
T012 115S 0414E 110 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD 
T024 119S 0400E 085 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD 
T036 122S 0394E 055 
T048 124S 0392E 035 
AMP
    036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 008    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 008    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z --- NEAR 11.2S 43.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 43.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 11.5S 41.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 11.9S 40.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 12.2S 39.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 12.4S 39.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 42.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 684 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2419042118  97S 530E  20
2419042200  97S 524E  25
2419042206  97S 519E  25
2419042212  97S 513E  30
2419042218  98S 512E  25
2419042300 100S 507E  30
2419042306 103S 498E  40
2419042312 106S 488E  45
2419042318 106S 478E  60
2419042318 106S 478E  60
2419042400 107S 468E  65
2419042400 107S 468E  65
2419042400 107S 468E  65
2419042406 109S 457E  70
2419042406 109S 457E  70
2419042406 109S 457E  70
2419042412 111S 444E  85
2419042412 111S 444E  85
2419042412 111S 444E  85
2419042418 112S 433E 100
2419042418 112S 433E 100
2419042418 112S 433E 100
NNNN

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Tropical Cyclone LORNA Forecast Graphic
Tropical Cyclone LORNA Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Cyclone LORNA Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Cyclone LORNA Storm-Centered Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement)
Tropical Cyclone LORNA Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Cyclone LORNA Warning Text (JTWC)
WTXS32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 006    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z --- NEAR 10.3S 84.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.3S 84.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 10.5S 85.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 11.2S 85.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 12.0S 86.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 13.4S 87.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 16.2S 89.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 20.2S 89.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            315 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 23.6S 89.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 84.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 743 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF, 
AND OBSCURING, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON AMBIGUITIES FROM A 
241616Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE ASCAT PASS SHOWED 30 KT WINDS TO THE 
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A SWATH OF 35-39 KT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST, 
DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS 
AVERAGED BETWEEN PGTW, FMEE, AND KNES DVORAK FIXES OF T2.5-T3.0 (35-
45 KTS) AND SUPPORTED BY THE ASCAT PASS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 25S IS TRACKING SLOWLY IN AN AMBIGUOUS 
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE (STR) TO ITS SOUTHEAST. BY TAU 48, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO 
SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT AS A PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH 
TO THE SOUTH ERODES THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY, A 
DEVELOPING CIRCULATION (92S) ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THE EAST IS 
EXPECTED TO INTERACT AND POSSIBLY MERGE WITH TC 25S, ADDING MORE 
COMPLEXITY TO THE TRACK FORECAST. VWS IS EXPECTED TO ABATE IN THE 
NEAR TERM, ALLOWING STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 65 KTS BY TAU 48. 
AFTER TAU 48, HIGH VWS AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALOFT ARE EXPECTED 
TO CAUSE TC 25S TO WEAKEN STEADILY. BY TAU 120, INTERACTION WITH THE 
MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED 
TO INITIATE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO 
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS DEPICT A 
POLEWARD TRACK BUT THERE IS WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN THE MODELS AFTER TAU 
48 DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT. GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE 
MEAN ARE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND 
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER IN ALONG-TRACK MOTION, WHILE UKMET AND GALWEM 
ARE THE EASTERN OUTLIERS. THE ECMWF TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER AT LATER TAUS. BASED ON 
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVING OVER 600 NM OF SPREAD BY TAU 120 AND THE 
COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC 
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 20 
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone LORNA JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTXS52 PGTW 242100    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25S SIO 190424204652
2019042418 25S LORNA      006  02 045 03 SATL 060
T000 103S 0846E 040 R034 115 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 130 NW QD 
T012 105S 0853E 045 R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD 
T024 112S 0859E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 150 NW QD 
T036 120S 0866E 060 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 140 NW QD 
T048 134S 0876E 065 R064 010 NE QD 005 SE QD 005 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD 
T072 162S 0892E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 145 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD 
T096 202S 0899E 055 R050 010 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 315 SE QD 160 SW QD 090 NW QD 
T120 236S 0897E 035 R034 200 NE QD 330 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD 
AMP
    120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 006    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 006    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z --- NEAR 10.3S 84.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.3S 84.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 10.5S 85.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 11.2S 85.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 12.0S 86.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 13.4S 87.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 16.2S 89.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 20.2S 89.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            315 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 23.6S 89.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 84.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 743 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2519042118  40S 790E  25
2519042200  43S 794E  25
2519042206  47S 799E  25
2519042212  51S 805E  25
2519042218  55S 811E  25
2519042300  63S 814E  30
2519042306  75S 817E  30
2519042312  86S 820E  35
2519042318  95S 828E  40
2519042400 101S 836E  40
2519042406 104S 840E  40
2519042412 105S 844E  40
2519042418 103S 846E  40
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