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Tropical Depression DANAS Investigation 97E Situation Map

Tropical Cyclone Formation

Tropical Cyclone Genesis is the technical term for the process of storm formation that leads ultimately to what are called hurricanes, typhoons, or tropical cyclones in various parts of the world.

This occurs when, in the Northern Hemisphere, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ, shifts northward out of the doldrums and atmospheric conditions become favorable for tropical cyclone formation after about the middle of May.

A series of low-pressure ripples develops within the ITCZ. These are known as tropical waves and progress from east to west. In the late season, they typically shift their movement toward the west-nothwest, or even northwest, after crossing 45° or 50° W longitude. Full Article

Tropical Depression DANAS Forecast Graphic
Tropical Depression DANAS Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Depression DANAS Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Depression DANAS Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Depression DANAS Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Depression DANAS Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR 018    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201200Z --- NEAR 35.6N 126.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 35.6N 126.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 37.9N 128.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 40.4N 130.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 36.2N 126.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 20 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE 
INITIAL POSITION WHICH RELIED ON ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY TO REVEAL AN ASYMMETRIC CLOUD SIGNATURE AND 
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF, AND PARTIALLY OBSCURING, THE LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS 
CONSISTENT WITH SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF 15-25 KTS AND A 
201153Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWING A SMALL AREA OF 25 KT WINDS NEAR 
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF KOREA. DESPITE GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE DUE TO COOL SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND IMMINENT LANDFALL NEAR KUNSAN AB. FOR THE 
DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TD 06W WILL TRACK AROUND THE NORTHWEST 
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL 
CAUSE TD 06W TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 12 AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE SEA 
OF JAPAN ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT RE-INTENSIFICATION. BASED ON 
STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY 
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY 
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 
AT 201200Z IS 11 FEET.//
NNNN
Tropical Depression DANAS Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (DANAS) 
WARNING NR 17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) 
WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN BANDS AND ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE 
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION 
BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI AND OBSERVED WIND AND PRESSURE DATA FROM 
BUOY 22102 AND HEUKSANDO. THE 30 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT 
WITH THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) AND A 
SAMPLING OF OBSERVED WINDS UP TO 29 KTS AROUND THE KOREAN PENINSULA. 
COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (22-23 CELSIUS) AND PROXIMITY TO LAND 
ARE OFFSETTING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO 
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TD 06W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF 
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 06W WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT RECURVES 
AND TRACKS OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA, STEADILY WEAKEN OVER LAND, AND 
DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG 
AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
Tropical Depression DANAS JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN51 PGTW 201500    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 06W NWP 190720131346
2019072012 06W DANAS      018  01 030 11 SATL SYNP 030
T000 356N 1264E 025 
T012 379N 1283E 020 
T024 404N 1301E 020 
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR 018    
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR 018    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201200Z --- NEAR 35.6N 126.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 35.6N 126.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 37.9N 128.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 40.4N 130.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 36.2N 126.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 20 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 11 FEET.//
0619071106  62N1444E  15
0619071112  62N1431E  15
0619071118  64N1421E  15
0619071200  66N1414E  15
0619071206  71N1406E  15
0619071212  76N1400E  15
0619071218  81N1393E  15
0619071300  89N1383E  15
0619071306  97N1376E  15
0619071312 103N1369E  15
0619071318 116N1363E  15
0619071400 126N1360E  15
0619071406 141N1356E  15
0619071412 152N1351E  15
0619071418 158N1340E  20
0619071500 160N1329E  20
0619071506 168N1305E  20
0619071512 169N1290E  20
0619071518 170N1276E  20
0619071600 167N1265E  20
0619071606 170N1251E  25
0619071612 172N1237E  30
0619071618 173N1235E  35
0619071700 181N1235E  35
0619071706 190N1237E  35
0619071712 204N1240E  35
0619071718 223N1242E  35
0619071800 241N1242E  35
0619071806 257N1239E  40
0619071812 269N1238E  40
0619071818 280N1238E  40
0619071900 290N1240E  40
0619071906 302N1243E  45
0619071912 317N1249E  45
0619071918 330N1252E  40
0619072000 342N1256E  35
0619072006 347N1257E  30
0619072012 356N1264E  25
NNNN

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