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Tropical Cyclone PAWAN Tropical Cyclone BELNA Tropical Cyclone AMBALI Situation Map

Tropical Cyclone Formation

Tropical Cyclone Genesis is the technical term for the process of storm formation that leads ultimately to what are called hurricanes, typhoons, or tropical cyclones in various parts of the world.

This occurs when, in the Northern Hemisphere, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ, shifts northward out of the doldrums and atmospheric conditions become favorable for tropical cyclone formation after about the middle of May.

A series of low-pressure ripples develops within the ITCZ. These are known as tropical waves and progress from east to west. In the late season, they typically shift their movement toward the west-nothwest, or even northwest, after crossing 45° or 50° W longitude. Full Article

Tropical Cyclone PAWAN Forecast Graphic
Tropical Cyclone PAWAN Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Cyclone PAWAN Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Cyclone PAWAN Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Cyclone PAWAN Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Cyclone PAWAN Warning Text (JTWC)
WTIO31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (PAWAN) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (PAWAN) WARNING NR 017    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z --- NEAR 8.2N 49.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.2N 49.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 7.5N 47.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 8.0N 49.2E.
07DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (PAWAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 391
NM SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE 
OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS TC 06A MOVES OVER THE HORN OF 
AFRICA. A 062157Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW 
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON EXPECTED 
WEAKENING OVER LAND AND DECAYING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. TC 06A IS 
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 12 DUE TO CONTINUED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT 
AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AS IT MOVES OVER LAND. TC 06A IS FORECAST TO 
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. NUMERICAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE 
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE 
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY 
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone PAWAN JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTIO51 PGTW 070300    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 06A NIO 191207023857
2019120700 06A PAWAN      017  01 270 10 SATL 060
T000 082N 0497E 035 R034 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD 
T012 075N 0477E 025 
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (PAWAN) WARNING NR 017    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (PAWAN) WARNING NR 017    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z --- NEAR 8.2N 49.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.2N 49.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 7.5N 47.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 8.0N 49.2E.
07DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (PAWAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 391
NM SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
//
0619120118  50N 569E  25
0619120200  52N 570E  25
0619120206  54N 570E  30
0619120212  56N 570E  30
0619120218  60N 573E  30
0619120300  64N 573E  35
0619120306  68N 573E  35
0619120312  70N 575E  35
0619120318  71N 576E  35
0619120400  72N 577E  35
0619120406  74N 577E  35
0619120412  81N 572E  40
0619120418  89N 570E  40
0619120500  94N 566E  40
0619120506  95N 558E  40
0619120512  90N 548E  40
0619120518  84N 540E  35
0619120600  81N 535E  35
0619120606  79N 528E  35
0619120612  78N 518E  35
0619120618  82N 507E  40
0619120700  82N 497E  35
NNNN

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Tropical Cyclone BELNA Forecast Graphic
Tropical Cyclone BELNA Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Cyclone BELNA Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Cyclone BELNA Storm-Centered Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement)
Tropical Cyclone BELNA Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Cyclone BELNA Warning Text (JTWC)
WTXS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 005    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z --- NEAR 9.2S 48.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S 48.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 10.1S 47.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 11.3S 47.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 12.5S 46.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 14.0S 46.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 16.9S 45.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 19.3S 44.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 22.3S 46.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 9.4S 48.2E.
06DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 
787 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OBSCURED BY CYCLING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON 061822Z METOP-B 
AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KTS 
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATE OF 4.0 (65 KTS) AND HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN A 061500Z 
SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 59 KTS AND A 061500Z ADVANCED DVORAK 
TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T3.7 (57 KTS). OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS, TC 
02S HAS TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 
WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDING IN TO THE EAST. AN OVERALL 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), 
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND GOOD 
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. 
TC 02S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KTS AT TAU 
36. FOLLOWING THAT, IT WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND TURN TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. SHORTLY BEFORE 
TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN 
MADAGASCAR WHERE LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE TC 02S TO BEGIN TO 
DISSIPATE. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER TAU 12, 
CREATING A LARGE SOLUTION SPREAD (470 NM) BY TAU 96. OF THESE 
SOLUTIONS, ECWMF IS THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIER AND PRESENTS A SOLUTION 
WHERE TC 02S TRACKS INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND DOES NOT 
INTERACT WITH LAND UNTIL AFTER TAU 120. THIS DIFFERENCE IN MODEL 
SOLUTIONS IS DUE TO THE TIMING OF A TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OVER 
SOUTH AFRICA THAT IS INTERACTING WITH THE STEERING OF THE SYSTEM. 
WITH THIS SPREAD, THE SYSTEM COULD MAINTAIN HIGHER INTENSITIES 
THROUGH LATER TAUS IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER FOR A LONGER 
PERIOD OF TIME. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST 
TRACK BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 
072100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 
PGTW) FOR UPDATES.//
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone BELNA JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTXS51 PGTW 062100    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 02S SIO 191206205108
2019120618 02S BELNA      005  02 190 06 SATL 020
T000 092S 0484E 065 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD 
T012 101S 0477E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD 
T024 113S 0473E 090 R064 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD 
T036 125S 0469E 095 R064 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD 
T048 140S 0462E 090 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD 
T072 169S 0450E 060 
T096 193S 0447E 035 
T120 223S 0467E 030 
AMP
    096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 005    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 005    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z --- NEAR 9.2S 48.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S 48.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 10.1S 47.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 11.3S 47.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 12.5S 46.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 14.0S 46.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 16.9S 45.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 19.3S 44.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 22.3S 46.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 9.4S 48.2E.
0219120218  64S 532E  20
0219120300  63S 531E  20
0219120306  63S 530E  20
0219120312  63S 529E  20
0219120318  63S 528E  25
0219120400  65S 520E  25
0219120406  65S 518E  25
0219120412  65S 516E  30
0219120418  65S 515E  35
0219120500  66S 513E  35
0219120506  67S 509E  40
0219120512  69S 505E  45
0219120518  72S 497E  55
0219120518  72S 497E  55
0219120600  75S 491E  60
0219120600  75S 491E  60
0219120606  80S 487E  65
0219120606  80S 487E  65
0219120606  80S 487E  65
0219120612  86S 485E  65
0219120612  86S 485E  65
0219120612  86S 485E  65
0219120618  92S 484E  65
0219120618  92S 484E  65
0219120618  92S 484E  65
NNNN

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Tropical Cyclone AMBALI Forecast Graphic
Tropical Cyclone AMBALI Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Cyclone AMBALI Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Cyclone AMBALI Storm-Centered Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement)
Tropical Cyclone AMBALI Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Cyclone AMBALI Warning Text (JTWC)
WTXS32 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 007    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z --- NEAR 12.0S 62.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 62.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 12.5S 61.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 12.9S 61.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 13.6S 60.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 14.3S 59.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 15.8S 58.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 62.6E.
07DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AMBALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 
583 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM WITH 
CYCLING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE 
BASED ON THE CLEAR MICROWAVE EYE EVIDENT IN A 062310Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE 
APPARENT WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, DVORAK CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T4.5-5.0 77-90 KNOTS) AND 
A 062345Z ADVANCED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 67 KNOTS. TC 03S CONTINUES TO 
TRACK THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST), BUT IS WEAKENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES 
BEGIN TO ERODE THE OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 03S IS TRACKING ALONG THE 
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST. AS THE SYSTEM 
TRACKS ALONG THIS RIDGE AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN A SECOND DEEP LAYER 
RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM BY TAU 
12, CAUSING THE FORECAST TRACK TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM 
TRAVELS ALONG THIS SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN 
AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 48 AND FINISH DISSIPATING 
BY TAU 72. NAVGEM IS A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN OUTLIER WHICH CONTINUES 
DIRECTLY POLEWARD. DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN AND COMPETING 
STEERING RIDGES IN THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT 
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN TC 03S WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. THE 
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IS 55NM BY TAU 72, LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE 
TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK ONCE THE TURN HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED. 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS 
AT 071500Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) 
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR UPDATES.//
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone AMBALI JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTXS52 PGTW 070300    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 03S SIO 191207021311
2019120700 03S AMBALI     007  02 140 06 SATL 050
T000 120S 0629E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD 
T012 125S 0619E 060 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD 
T024 129S 0612E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD 
T036 136S 0604E 045 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD 
T048 143S 0595E 040 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD 
T072 158S 0580E 030 
AMP
    048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 007    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 007    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z --- NEAR 12.0S 62.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 62.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 12.5S 61.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 12.9S 61.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 13.6S 60.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 14.3S 59.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 15.8S 58.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 62.6E.
07DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 583
NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0319120206  39S 678E  15
0319120212  39S 666E  15
0319120218  39S 655E  15
0319120300  41S 653E  15
0319120306  42S 652E  15
0319120312  43S 650E  20
0319120318  46S 650E  25
0319120400  51S 650E  25
0319120406  58S 647E  30
0319120412  65S 646E  30
0319120418  73S 641E  35
0319120500  78S 636E  35
0319120506  86S 632E  50
0319120506  86S 632E  50
0319120512  92S 628E  70
0319120512  92S 628E  70
0319120512  92S 628E  70
0319120518  99S 624E 105
0319120518  99S 624E 105
0319120518  99S 624E 105
0319120600 105S 622E 135
0319120600 105S 622E 135
0319120600 105S 622E 135
0319120606 109S 622E 110
0319120606 109S 622E 110
0319120606 109S 622E 110
0319120612 114S 622E  90
0319120612 114S 622E  90
0319120612 114S 622E  90
0319120618 115S 625E  85
0319120618 115S 625E  85
0319120618 115S 625E  85
0319120700 120S 629E  75
0319120700 120S 629E  75
0319120700 120S 629E  75
NNNN

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