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Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Situation Map
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Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
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Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 012    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161200Z --- NEAR 12.1N 125.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 125.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 11.7N 123.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 11.3N 121.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 11.1N 119.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 10.7N 118.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 9.6N 115.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            320 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 8.5N 112.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 275 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            340 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 7.5N 110.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 305 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            285 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 125.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK) 
WARNING NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM NOW OVER LAND WITH FLARING CENTRAL 
CONVECTION SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS AND BEING 
SHEARED TO WEST. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION 
BASED ON AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN 
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY REGIONAL 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS 
AND IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO 
T3.5 (30 TO 55 KNOTS), TAKING INTO ACCOUNT LAND INTERACTION WITH THE 
DISSIPATING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD DIVERGENCE 
TO WEST OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, STRONG EASTERLIES ARE CREATING A 
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE 
SUPPORTIVE NEAR 28 TO 29 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TS 32W IS TRACKING 
WESTWARD AS STEERING TRANSITIONS FROM THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST TO ANOTHER RIDGE LOCATED TO THE 
NORTHWEST.  
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 32W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE NORTHWESTERN STR FOR THE DURATION OF THE 
FORECAST. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TS 32W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS 
STRONG WIND SHEAR PERSISTS AND THE LOW LEVER CIRCULATION TRACKS OVER 
THE VISAYAN ISLANDS. AROUND TAU 36 TS 32W WILL REEMERGE AND 
RECONSOLIDATE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. AROUND 
THIS TIME A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE IS FORECAST TO FEED INTO THE 
REGION IMPARTING ENERGY TO LLCC. WIND SHEAR AROUND THIS TIME IS 
FORECAST TO RELAX SOME BUT REMAIN OVERALL MARGINAL. DUE TO 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TS 32W WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO 
REINTENSIFY.   
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE AND 
TS 32W WILL REINTENSIFY TO 45 KNOTS. THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL 
EXTEND THE REACH OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ON THE 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD 
AGREEMENT ON TRACK MOTION WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK 
SPEED. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 
THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm KAI-TAK JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN51 PGTW 161500    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 32W NWP 171216132911
2017121612 32W KAI-TAK    012  01 235 05 SATL 035
T000 121N 1254E 040 R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 105 SW QD 125 NW QD 
T012 117N 1238E 035 R034 130 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 160 NW QD 
T024 113N 1219E 035 R034 215 NE QD 060 SE QD 075 SW QD 195 NW QD 
T036 111N 1199E 035 R034 225 NE QD 050 SE QD 065 SW QD 225 NW QD 
T048 107N 1182E 040 R034 215 NE QD 070 SE QD 095 SW QD 195 NW QD 
T072 096N 1155E 045 R034 270 NE QD 060 SE QD 205 SW QD 320 NW QD 
T096 085N 1129E 045 R034 275 NE QD 065 SE QD 195 SW QD 340 NW QD 
T120 075N 1100E 045 R034 305 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 285 NW QD 
AMP
SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 012    
1. TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 012    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161200Z --- NEAR 12.1N 125.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 125.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 11.7N 123.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 11.3N 121.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 11.1N 119.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 10.7N 118.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 9.6N 115.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            320 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 8.5N 112.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 275 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            340 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 7.5N 110.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 305 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            285 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 125.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.
//
3217121018  71N1345E  15
3217121100  72N1335E  15
3217121106  76N1327E  20
3217121112  82N1320E  20
3217121118  85N1319E  20
3217121200  89N1316E  15
3217121206  97N1310E  15
3217121212 107N1303E  20
3217121218 111N1297E  15
3217121300 112N1294E  20
3217121306 112N1288E  20
3217121312 113N1285E  20
3217121318 113N1283E  25
3217121400 113N1281E  30
3217121406 114N1279E  30
3217121412 115N1277E  35
3217121418 116N1277E  40
3217121500 117N1277E  45
3217121506 118N1278E  45
3217121512 116N1278E  45
3217121518 121N1271E  45
3217121600 125N1266E  50
3217121606 124N1258E  45
3217121612 121N1254E  40
NNNN

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