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Tropical Cyclone GAJA Tropical Depression 33W Tropical Cyclone BOUCHRA Situation Map

Tropical Cyclone Formation

Tropical Cyclone Genesis is the technical term for the process of storm formation that leads ultimately to what are called hurricanes, typhoons, or tropical cyclones in various parts of the world.

This occurs when, in the Northern Hemisphere, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ, shifts northward out of the doldrums and atmospheric conditions become favorable for tropical cyclone formation after about the middle of May.

A series of low-pressure ripples develops within the ITCZ. These are known as tropical waves and progress from east to west. In the late season, they typically shift their movement toward the west-nothwest, or even northwest, after crossing 45° or 50° W longitude. Full Article

Tropical Cyclone GAJA Forecast Graphic
Tropical Cyclone GAJA Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Cyclone GAJA Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Cyclone GAJA Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Cyclone GAJA Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Cyclone GAJA Warning Text (JTWC)
WTIO31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (GAJA) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (GAJA) WARNING NR 033    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z --- NEAR 10.5N 67.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.5N 67.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 10.8N 66.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 11.0N 64.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 67.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (GAJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 789 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DIMINISHING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION 
SHEARED TO THE NORTH OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). A 181710Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED A COMPACT CIRCULATION WITH 
ONLY 15 KT WINDS WRAPPED AROUND THE LLCC, AND A SMALL AREA OF 20 
KT WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS 
IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS AND THE DECOUPLING OF 
CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC. THIS IS BELOW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS) FROM PGTW AND T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM 
KNES, ALTHOUGH THOSE FIXES WERE TRACKING THE CONVECTION BEING 
SHEARED TO THE NORTH AND ARE NORTH OF THE JTWC 181800Z BEST 
TRACK POSITION. ADDITIONALLY, A 181500Z BUOY OBSERVATION 60NM TO 
THE NNE REPORTED 14 KT WINDS AND 1008 MB ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURE. 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, AND 
ALONG WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS LED TO THE DRASTIC WEAKENING 
AND DISORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE LLCC WILL CONTINUE TO 
TRACK WESTWARD IN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE THE DECOUPLED 
CONVECTION IS NOW SUBJECT TO NORTHWESTWARD UPPER LEVEL STEERING 
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME EVEN MORE 
UNFAVORABLE AS THE DISSIPATED TC 07B TRACKS WESTWARD, WITH DRIER 
AIR, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DECREASING POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW TO SUSTAIN ANY REMAINING CONVECTION, AND REGENERATION IS 
NOT EXPECTED. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE 
NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WITH 
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE 
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY 
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone GAJA JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTIO51 PGTW 182100    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 07B NIO 181118193938
2018111818 07B GAJA       033  01 235 07 SATL 060
T000 105N 0678E 025 
T012 108N 0661E 025 
T024 110N 0641E 025 
AMP 000HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (GAJA) WARNING NR 033    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (GAJA) WARNING NR 033    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z --- NEAR 10.5N 67.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.5N 67.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 10.8N 66.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 11.0N 64.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 67.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (GAJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 789 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z
IS 10 FEET.
//
0718110606  78N1047E  15
0718110612  78N1041E  15
0718110618  79N1034E  15
0718110700  80N1027E  15
0718110706  79N1022E  15
0718110712  80N1018E  15
0718110718  78N1014E  20
0718110800  83N1007E  20
0718110806  89N1000E  20
0718110812  98N 993E  20
0718110818 102N 981E  20
0718110900 102N 965E  20
0718110906 106N 955E  25
0718110912 110N 945E  25
0718110918 116N 931E  25
0718111000 120N 924E  25
0718111006 123N 915E  25
0718111012 127N 905E  30
0718111018 131N 897E  35
0718111100 133N 892E  40
0718111106 133N 885E  35
0718111112 131N 876E  35
0718111118 128N 874E  35
0718111200 125N 874E  35
0718111206 125N 875E  40
0718111212 126N 876E  40
0718111218 132N 877E  35
0718111300 137N 874E  35
0718111306 138N 865E  35
0718111312 136N 861E  35
0718111318 134N 857E  35
0718111400 131N 853E  40
0718111406 128N 850E  45
0718111412 124N 845E  45
0718111418 120N 839E  45
0718111500 116N 831E  45
0718111506 113N 822E  55
0718111506 113N 822E  55
0718111512 109N 812E  65
0718111512 109N 812E  65
0718111512 109N 812E  65
0718111518 106N 803E  75
0718111518 106N 803E  75
0718111518 106N 803E  75
0718111600 104N 792E  75
0718111600 104N 792E  75
0718111600 104N 792E  75
0718111606 101N 778E  60
0718111612  97N 765E  40
0718111618  97N 752E  40
0718111700  97N 740E  45
0718111706  98N 728E  40
0718111712 100N 716E  40
0718111718 104N 705E  35
0718111800 105N 696E  35
0718111806 106N 690E  40
0718111812 109N 684E  40
0718111818 105N 678E  25
NNNN

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Tropical Depression 33W Forecast Graphic
Tropical Depression 33W Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Depression 33W Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Depression 33W Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Depression 33W Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Depression 33W Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE) WARNING NR 003    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z --- NEAR 7.0N 133.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.0N 133.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 8.1N 131.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 9.0N 129.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 9.8N 127.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 10.3N 125.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 11.0N 118.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 11.7N 114.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 11.6N 111.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 7.3N 132.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 841
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 32W (TORAJI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Tropical Depression 33W Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W 
(THIRTYTHREE) 
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 841
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING, 
EXPANSIVE CENTRAL CONVECTION. A PARTIAL 181841Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
IMAGE SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS TO THE 
EAST OF CONVECTION, WITH LOWER LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO IT. 
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND AFOREMENTIONED 
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
MAINTAINED AT 30 KTS BASED ON A 181241Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING A 
BROAD AREA OF 30 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE 
SYSTEM, ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
RANGING FROM T1.0 (25 KNOTS) TO T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, 
RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (15 TO 25 KNOTS) 
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS PUSHING THE 
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE 
ALOFT THAT IS SUPPORTING THE FORMATIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. 
TD 33W IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.     
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER 
NORTHEASTERN ASIA, LEADING TO A WEAKENING IN THE CENTER OF THE 
STR, AND A RE-ORIENTING OF TWO LOBES OF THE STR TO EITHER SIDE. 
TD 33W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
THROUGH TAU 72 TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS IN THE STR. TD 33W SHOULD 
INTENSIFY STEADILY TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AS WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW 
COMPETE WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VWS. AROUND TAU 48, TD 33W WILL 
MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHEAST MINDANAO. INTENSITY IS HELD THE 
SAME BETWEEN TAU 48 TO 72 AS TD 33W TRACKS THROUGH THE SHALLOW, 
WARM BODIES OF WATER BETWEEN THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS INCLUDING 
THE SULU SEA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH 
A SPREAD OF 205NM IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.  
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 33W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WHILE 
TRANSITIONING TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN STR, 
WHICH WILL BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF TD 33W. THE SPREAD BETWEEN 
MODELS REMAINS 205NM AT TAU 120, WITH THE MOST VARIATION IN 
NORTH TO SOUTH POSITIONING. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS A 
FLATTER TRACK AND IS POSITIONED BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL 
CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION, WHICH IS TO THE SOUTH 
OF CONSENSUS. NAVGEM IS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER AND PREDICTS A 
POLEWARD TURN AT TAU 120. TD 33W SHOULD INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 
55 KNOTS BY TAU 120 UNDER MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE 
SOUTH CHINA SEA. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
Tropical Depression 33W JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN52 PGTW 182100    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 33W NWP 181118210107
2018111818 33W THIRTYTHRE 003  02 305 07 SATL 060
T000 070N 1330E 030 
T012 081N 1318E 030 
T024 090N 1299E 035 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD 
T036 098N 1278E 040 R034 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 100 NW QD 
T048 103N 1250E 045 R034 080 NE QD 010 SE QD 040 SW QD 110 NW QD 
T072 110N 1186E 045 R034 100 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD 
T096 117N 1141E 050 R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD 
T120 116N 1111E 055 R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD 
AMP
SUBJ:  TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE) WARNING NR 003    
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE) WARNING NR 003    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z --- NEAR 7.0N 133.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.0N 133.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 8.1N 131.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 9.0N 129.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 9.8N 127.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 10.3N 125.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 11.0N 118.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 11.7N 114.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 11.6N 111.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 7.3N 132.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 841
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
3318110206  80N1590W  20
3318110212  80N1592W  20
3318110218  81N1597W  20
3318110300  83N1603W  20
3318110306  84N1613W  20
3318110312  84N1625W  25
3318110318  82N1637W  25
3318110400  78N1648W  25
3318110406  76N1658W  25
3318110412  74N1672W  25
3318110418  77N1689W  25
3318110500  76N1708W  25
3318110506  75N1727W  25
3318110512  73N1743W  25
3318110518  73N1756W  25
3318110600  73N1770W  25
3318110606  72N1780W  25
3318110612  69N1791W  25
3318110618  71N1799W  25
3318110700  70N1791E  20
3318110706  66N1784E  20
3318110712  63N1781E  20
3318110718  68N1779E  20
3318110800  70N1772E  20
3318110806  74N1767E  20
3318110812  77N1760E  20
3318110818  79N1752E  20
3318110900  80N1744E  20
3318110906  84N1734E  20
3318110912  86N1721E  20
3318110918  86N1708E  20
3318111000  85N1702E  20
3318111006  82N1696E  20
3318111012  81N1687E  15
3318111018  95N1672E  20
3318111100 106N1659E  20
3318111106 113N1644E  15
3318111112 116N1628E  15
3318111118 115N1617E  15
3318111200 113N1611E  15
3318111206 107N1602E  20
3318111212 101N1593E  20
3318111218  98N1581E  20
3318111300  95N1570E  20
3318111306  91N1559E  20
3318111312  90N1551E  20
3318111318  91N1544E  20
3318111400  94N1536E  20
3318111406  91N1525E  20
3318111412  87N1512E  20
3318111418  83N1501E  20
3318111500  78N1485E  20
3318111506  73N1477E  20
3318111512  72N1470E  20
3318111518  74N1463E  20
3318111600  74N1456E  20
3318111606  73N1447E  20
3318111612  73N1434E  20
3318111618  72N1421E  20
3318111700  72N1409E  20
3318111706  72N1396E  20
3318111712  71N1383E  20
3318111718  69N1368E  20
3318111800  65N1356E  20
3318111806  64N1342E  25
3318111812  66N1336E  30
3318111818  70N1330E  30
NNNN

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Tropical Cyclone BOUCHRA Forecast Graphic
Tropical Cyclone BOUCHRA Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Cyclone BOUCHRA Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Cyclone BOUCHRA Storm-Centered Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement)
Tropical Cyclone BOUCHRA Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Cyclone BOUCHRA Warning Text (JTWC)
WTXS32 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 017    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190000Z --- NEAR 13.7S 81.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 81.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 14.6S 80.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 15.2S 78.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 15.5S 77.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 15.7S 76.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 15.7S 72.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 81.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 672 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND 
SPIRAL RAINBANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 182341Z GMI 
36GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED AT 55 KTS, BASED ON 
A BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 (55 KTS) 
FROM KNES, T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM PGTW, SUPPORTED BY THE AUTOMATED 
DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 53 KTS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A 
REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS), 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) (27 DEGREES CELSIUS), AND 
GOOD OUTFLOW. TC 04S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST 
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
(STR) TO THE EAST. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 50 KTS 
THROUGH TAU 24 IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND TAU 
24, VWS WILL INCREASE, DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL DECREASE, AND SSTS 
WILL DROP BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AFTER TAU 48, RESULTING IN 
THE STEADY WEAKENING OF TC 04S WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 
72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL 
SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WESTWARD TRACK, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD OF 300 NM BY TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST 
TRACK IS PLACED JUST NORTH OF CONSENSUS WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT 
WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.//
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone BOUCHRA JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTXS52 PGTW 190300    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 04S SIO 181119013251
2018111900 04S BOUCHRA    017  01 245 07 SATL 060
T000 137S 0817E 055 R050 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD 
T012 146S 0801E 050 R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 040 NW QD 
T024 152S 0786E 050 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 150 SE QD 090 SW QD 030 NW QD 
T036 155S 0772E 045 R034 020 NE QD 150 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD 
T048 157S 0761E 040 R034 040 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD 
T072 157S 0727E 030 
AMP
    048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 017    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 017    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190000Z --- NEAR 13.7S 81.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 81.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 14.6S 80.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 15.2S 78.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 15.5S 77.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 15.7S 76.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 15.7S 72.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 81.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 672 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.
//
0418110812  58S 881E  15
0418110818  60S 886E  15
0418110900  57S 893E  15
0418110906  52S 899E  15
0418110912  49S 903E  20
0418110918  48S 906E  25
0418111000  50S 908E  30
0418111006  55S 905E  35
0418111012  58S 900E  35
0418111018  56S 895E  35
0418111100  56S 890E  35
0418111106  55S 882E  45
0418111109  53S 885E  45
0418111112  53S 889E  40
0418111118  53S 890E  40
0418111200  55S 891E  35
0418111206  59S 893E  40
0418111212  62S 893E  40
0418111218  66S 893E  40
0418111300  69S 899E  35
0418111306  72S 902E  30
0418111312  71S 904E  25
0418111318  71S 906E  25
0418111400  66S 915E  25
0418111406  66S 917E  25
0418111412  71S 914E  25
0418111418  73S 910E  25
0418111500  82S 913E  25
0418111506  84S 919E  25
0418111512  87S 926E  25
0418111518  87S 919E  25
0418111600  87S 912E  25
0418111606  99S 919E  25
0418111612 102S 913E  25
0418111618 104S 903E  25
0418111700 107S 893E  30
0418111706 112S 884E  30
0418111712 114S 874E  30
0418111718 114S 863E  35
0418111800 116S 853E  40
0418111806 122S 844E  50
0418111812 128S 837E  50
0418111812 128S 837E  50
0418111818 134S 823E  50
0418111818 134S 823E  50
0418111900 137S 817E  55
0418111900 137S 817E  55
NNNN

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook
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