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Tropical Storm KALMAEGI Tropical Depression 21E Situation Map

Tropical Cyclone Formation

Tropical Cyclone Genesis is the technical term for the process of storm formation that leads ultimately to what are called hurricanes, typhoons, or tropical cyclones in various parts of the world.

This occurs when, in the Northern Hemisphere, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ, shifts northward out of the doldrums and atmospheric conditions become favorable for tropical cyclone formation after about the middle of May.

A series of low-pressure ripples develops within the ITCZ. These are known as tropical waves and progress from east to west. In the late season, they typically shift their movement toward the west-nothwest, or even northwest, after crossing 45° or 50° W longitude. Full Article

Tropical Storm KALMAEGI Forecast Graphic
Tropical Storm KALMAEGI Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Storm KALMAEGI Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Storm KALMAEGI Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Storm KALMAEGI Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Storm KALMAEGI Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN32 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 022    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180000Z --- NEAR 17.5N 123.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 123.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 18.2N 122.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 18.5N 121.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 17.7N 120.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 16.3N 119.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 13.3N 115.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 123.2E.
18NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222
NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 
AT 180000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z 
AND 190300Z.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm KALMAEGI Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN32 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (KALMAEGI) 
WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. 
   TYPHOON (TY) 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A 10-NM 
RAGGED EYE AND IMPROVED SPIRAL BANDING. THIS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION 
IS EVIDENT IN AN 180458Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWING A NEAR-COMPLETE 
EYEWALL SURROUNDING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS GOOD 
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EIR AND AMSR2 36GHZ 
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON AN 
AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 (55 KNOTS) 
TO T4.5 (77 KNOTS), WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE RAGGED EYE FEATURE. 
ADDITIONALLY, THE CIMSS SATCON AND ADT ESTIMATES INDICATE A SHARP 
SPIKE IN ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST EIGHT HOURS WITH CURRENT VALUES 
RANGING FROM 70-75 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW. TY 27W IS TRACKING SLOWLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE 
EAST.         
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM 
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE INITIAL 34-KNOT WIND 
RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF RECENT 
ASCAT IMAGERY. 
   B. TY 27W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 
TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY 
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN LUZON NEAR TAU 24. AFTER TAU 
24, TY 27W WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO INCREASED FRICTIONAL 
EFFECTS AND INCREASING VWS (25-30 KNOTS). NEAR TAU 36, THE SYSTEM 
WILL TRACK OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF 
THE WESTERN STR AND NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW WITH STEADY WEAKENING 
THROUGH TAU 72. TY KALMAEGI SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 UNDER STRONG 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE 
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm KALMAEGI JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN52 PGTW 180300    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 27W NWP 191118003658
2019111800 27W KALMAEGI   022  02 310 05 SATL 020
T000 175N 1234E 060 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 085 SE QD 055 SW QD 075 NW QD 
T012 182N 1226E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 190 NW QD 
T024 185N 1219E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 040 SE QD 090 SW QD 250 NW QD 
T036 177N 1207E 050 R050 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 010 SE QD 050 SW QD 210 NW QD 
T048 163N 1191E 035 R034 150 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 130 NW QD 
T072 133N 1155E 020 
AMP
    048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 022    
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 022    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180000Z --- NEAR 17.5N 123.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 123.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 18.2N 122.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 18.5N 121.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 17.7N 120.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 16.3N 119.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 13.3N 115.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 123.2E.
18NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222
NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 
AT 180000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z 
AND 190300Z.//
2719111018 135N1351E  15
2719111100 135N1347E  15
2719111106 131N1337E  15
2719111112 125N1330E  15
2719111118 121N1327E  20
2719111200 120N1324E  20
2719111206 119N1319E  20
2719111212 119N1314E  20
2719111218 121N1304E  25
2719111300 126N1292E  30
2719111306 129N1287E  30
2719111312 132N1284E  30
2719111318 138N1281E  30
2719111400 144N1273E  30
2719111406 148N1271E  30
2719111412 155N1267E  30
2719111418 157N1266E  30
2719111500 159N1265E  30
2719111506 160N1264E  30
2719111512 160N1262E  30
2719111518 159N1261E  35
2719111600 157N1261E  35
2719111606 156N1260E  35
2719111612 155N1259E  35
2719111618 155N1256E  35
2719111700 158N1252E  45
2719111706 165N1248E  50
2719111706 165N1248E  50
2719111712 169N1245E  50
2719111712 169N1245E  50
2719111718 172N1238E  50
2719111718 172N1238E  50
2719111800 175N1234E  60
2719111800 175N1234E  60
NNNN

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

NHC Forecast Track (Tropical Depression 21E)
Tropical Depression 21E Forecast Track (National Hurricane Center)
Tropical Depression 21E Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Depression 21E Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Depression 21E Storm-Centered Visible

Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E (EP1/EP212019)

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY TUESDAY... As of 3:00 AM CST Mon Nov 18 the center of Twenty-One-E was located near 12.2, -105.0 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Public Advisory Number 9

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY TUESDAY...
Location: 12.2°N 105.0°W
Max sustained: 30 mph
Moving: NW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb

Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Advisory Number 9

Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 18 2019

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 8

Issued at 900 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 18 2019

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Graphics

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Nov 2019 02:36:41 GMT

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Nov 2019 03:24:16 GMT

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E 5-Day Track, Uncertainty Cone, Warnings (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Mon, 18 Nov 2019 02:36:56 GMT

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Best Track Information (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Mon, 18 Nov 2019 02:37:06 GMT

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Best Track Information (.kmz)

GIS Data last updated Mon, 18 Nov 2019 02:37:06 GMT

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Information (.shp)

GIS Data last updated Mon, 18 Nov 2019 02:37:17 GMT

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Information by ATCF XML Prototype

Issued at Mon, 18 Nov 2019 08:31:22 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format may change without notice.
SpaghettiTropical Depression 21E Spaghetti Models (UWM)

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook
Graphic provided by Climate Prediction Center