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Tropical Cyclone OMA Tropical Depression 02W Situation Map

Tropical Cyclone Formation

Tropical Cyclone Genesis is the technical term for the process of storm formation that leads ultimately to what are called hurricanes, typhoons, or tropical cyclones in various parts of the world.

This occurs when, in the Northern Hemisphere, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ, shifts northward out of the doldrums and atmospheric conditions become favorable for tropical cyclone formation after about the middle of May.

A series of low-pressure ripples develops within the ITCZ. These are known as tropical waves and progress from east to west. In the late season, they typically shift their movement toward the west-nothwest, or even northwest, after crossing 45° or 50° W longitude. Full Article

Tropical Cyclone OMA Forecast Graphic
Tropical Cyclone OMA Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Cyclone OMA Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Cyclone OMA Storm-Centered Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement)
Tropical Cyclone OMA Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Cyclone OMA Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPS31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 031    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191200Z --- NEAR 20.6S 162.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 162.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 21.3S 161.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 22.0S 160.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 22.9S 160.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 23.9S 159.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 25.9S 159.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 26.5S 160.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            300 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 25.6S 161.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 161.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO A LARGE, RAGGED EYE. A 191132Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION 
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 75 
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 4.5 
TO 5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO 
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST, NEAR 
RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH 
A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 15P IS 
FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE 
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 36, THE 
SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED 
WITH A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS 
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS 
EAST AND DEEPENS OVER NEW ZEALAND. THIS ALLOWS THE STR TO QUICKLY 
BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM LEADING TO SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AND, 
POTENTIALLY, A PERIOD OF QUASISTATIONARY MOTION. THEREFORE, THERE IS 
LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST 
TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 
KNOTS BY TAU 12 BUT SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF 
THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL, 
CONVERGENT WESTERLIES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST 
(LESS THAN 26C). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 25 
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone OMA JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPS51 PGTW 191500    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190219124900
2019021912 15P OMA        031  01 190 06 SATL 040
T000 206S 1620E 075 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 175 SE QD 160 SW QD 135 NW QD 
T012 213S 1614E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD 
T024 220S 1607E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 210 SE QD 220 SW QD 170 NW QD 
T036 229S 1600E 070 R064 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 220 SW QD 180 NW QD 
T048 239S 1595E 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 260 SW QD 200 NW QD 
T072 259S 1594E 050 R050 050 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 270 SE QD 320 SW QD 280 NW QD 
T096 265S 1605E 045 R034 130 NE QD 270 SE QD 300 SW QD 230 NW QD 
T120 256S 1614E 040 R034 060 NE QD 170 SE QD 200 SW QD 170 NW QD 
AMP
    120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 031    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 031    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191200Z --- NEAR 20.6S 162.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 162.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 21.3S 161.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 22.0S 160.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 22.9S 160.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 23.9S 159.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 25.9S 159.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 26.5S 160.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            300 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 25.6S 161.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 161.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
1519021100 164S1603E  25
1519021106 155S1612E  25
1519021112 151S1625E  25
1519021118 144S1636E  30
1519021200 140S1645E  35
1519021206 137S1649E  35
1519021212 137S1655E  45
1519021218 140S1658E  45
1519021300 143S1654E  45
1519021306 144S1650E  45
1519021312 141S1654E  55
1519021312 141S1654E  55
1519021318 144S1654E  55
1519021318 144S1654E  55
1519021400 147S1655E  55
1519021400 147S1655E  55
1519021406 149S1655E  55
1519021406 149S1655E  55
1519021412 151S1655E  55
1519021412 151S1655E  55
1519021418 152S1654E  55
1519021418 152S1654E  55
1519021500 151S1650E  60
1519021500 151S1650E  60
1519021506 151S1651E  65
1519021506 151S1651E  65
1519021506 151S1651E  65
1519021512 152S1648E  70
1519021512 152S1648E  70
1519021512 152S1648E  70
1519021518 153S1645E  70
1519021518 153S1645E  70
1519021518 153S1645E  70
1519021600 154S1643E  70
1519021600 154S1643E  70
1519021600 154S1643E  70
1519021606 154S1642E  70
1519021606 154S1642E  70
1519021606 154S1642E  70
1519021612 153S1642E  70
1519021612 153S1642E  70
1519021612 153S1642E  70
1519021618 153S1644E  65
1519021618 153S1644E  65
1519021618 153S1644E  65
1519021700 155S1642E  65
1519021700 155S1642E  65
1519021700 155S1642E  65
1519021706 160S1643E  60
1519021706 160S1643E  60
1519021712 164S1644E  60
1519021712 164S1644E  60
1519021718 168S1644E  55
1519021718 168S1644E  55
1519021800 173S1640E  50
1519021800 173S1640E  50
1519021806 180S1636E  45
1519021812 185S1631E  50
1519021812 185S1631E  50
1519021818 190S1627E  60
1519021818 190S1627E  60
1519021900 195S1624E  75
1519021900 195S1624E  75
1519021900 195S1624E  75
1519021906 200S1621E  75
1519021906 200S1621E  75
1519021906 200S1621E  75
1519021912 206S1620E  75
1519021912 206S1620E  75
1519021912 206S1620E  75
NNNN

Radar

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Tropical Depression 02W Forecast Graphic
Tropical Depression 02W Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Depression 02W Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Depression 02W Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Depression 02W Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Depression 02W Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 002    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191200Z --- NEAR 4.4N 157.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 4.4N 157.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 4.4N 154.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 5.0N 152.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 6.0N 150.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 7.2N 149.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 9.5N 145.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 11.4N 143.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 12.8N 141.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 4.4N 156.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 908 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 191200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z,
200900Z AND 201500Z.//
NNNN
Tropical Depression 02W Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) 
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 970 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING 
OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, 
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 190812Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE 
MICROWAVE IMAGE (MI) DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE EASTERN 
SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF PERSISTENT CORE 
CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING. BASED ON THE MI, THERE IS FAIR 
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 
KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY 
FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE MIDLATITUDE 
WESTERLIES, WARM SST (29 TO 30C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. 
TD 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN 
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED 
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.     
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE 
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. THROUGH TAU 72, TD 02W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR 
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY, NEAR 
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF INTENSIFICATION, TO 70 KNOTS BY TAU 72. 
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 165NM 
AT TAU 72.   
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY 
WITH A BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. GFS (AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE) 
AND NAVGEM INDICATE A RECURVE SCENARIO JUST WEST OF GUAM, WHICH 
APPEARS UNLIKELY (LOW PROBABILITY). BOTH THESE MODELS ERRONEOUSLY 
DRIVE THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY INTO AND THROUGH A STRONG STR POSITIONED 
OVER GUAM WITH NO MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENT...IN FACT, 
GFS AND NAVGEM SHOW A BROAD STR TO THE EAST OF JAPAN. THE REMAINDER 
OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE (ECMF, EEMN, HWRF, JGSM, EGRR) 
INDICATES A FLATTER TRACK MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE JTWC OFFICIAL 
FORECAST FAVORS A NON-RECURVE SCENARIO CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION 
DUE TO THE LACK OF A MIDLATITUDE RECURVE MECHANISM (DEEP SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM), AND PRESENCE OF A STRONG STR. 
TD 02W IS FORECAST, HOWEVER, TO INTENSIFY TO 90 KNOTS AS IT SKIRTS 
SOUTH OF GUAM, AND MAY STILL PRODUCE GALE-FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS AND 
ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS OVER GUAM. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE REMAINS 
LOW DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.//
NNNN
Tropical Depression 02W JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN51 PGTW 191500    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 02W NWP 190219141948
2019021912 02W TWO        002  01 270 13 SATL 045
T000 044N 1570E 030 
T012 044N 1547E 040 R034 170 NE QD 100 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD 
T024 050N 1527E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 140 SE QD 150 SW QD 170 NW QD 
T036 060N 1509E 070 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 180 NW QD 
T048 072N 1491E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD 
T072 095N 1456E 100 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 180 NW QD 
T096 114N 1430E 105 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 110 SW QD 160 NW QD 
T120 128N 1411E 100 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD 
AMP
SUBJ:  TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 002    
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 002    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191200Z --- NEAR 4.4N 157.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 4.4N 157.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 4.4N 154.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 5.0N 152.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 6.0N 150.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 7.2N 149.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 9.5N 145.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 11.4N 143.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 12.8N 141.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 4.4N 156.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 908 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 191200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z,
200900Z AND 201500Z.//
0219021806  42N1634E  20
0219021812  42N1621E  20
0219021818  42N1609E  20
0219021900  43N1596E  20
0219021906  44N1583E  25
0219021912  44N1570E  30
NNNN

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