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Tropical Storm DANAS Situation Map

Tropical Cyclone Formation

Tropical Cyclone Genesis is the technical term for the process of storm formation that leads ultimately to what are called hurricanes, typhoons, or tropical cyclones in various parts of the world.

This occurs when, in the Northern Hemisphere, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ, shifts northward out of the doldrums and atmospheric conditions become favorable for tropical cyclone formation after about the middle of May.

A series of low-pressure ripples develops within the ITCZ. These are known as tropical waves and progress from east to west. In the late season, they typically shift their movement toward the west-nothwest, or even northwest, after crossing 45° or 50° W longitude. Full Article

Tropical Storm DANAS Forecast Graphic
Tropical Storm DANAS Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Storm DANAS Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Storm DANAS Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Storm DANAS Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Storm DANAS Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR 003    
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161800Z --- NEAR 17.2N 123.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 123.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 18.3N 122.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 20.2N 121.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 22.6N 121.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 24.9N 121.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 29.3N 121.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 33.4N 123.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 37.5N 126.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 123.1E.
16JUL19. TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 209 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
161800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 
172100Z.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm DANAS Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) 
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 209 NM NORTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A RECENT SATELLITE FIX
FROM PGTW AND 161741Z AMSR2 IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON
ASCAT PASSES FROM 161244Z AND 161311Z INDICATING EXTENSIVE COVERAGE
OF 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS. FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE COMPETING STEERING
INFLUENCES OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAJORITY OF DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DISPLACED WELL TO THE
WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS), LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
PARTIALLY EXPOSED. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS) AND
STRONG WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT ARE ALSO OBSERVED.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. RECENT SLOW MOTION SUGGESTS THAT TS 06W IS UNDERGOING A
STEERING CHANGE, WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN A
PREVIOUSLY-ANTICIPATED POLEWARD TURN. A REORIENTING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE,
TAKING THE SYSTEM CENTER TOWARD TAIWAN BY TAU 36 AND THE EASTERN
COAST OF MAINLAND CHINA BY TAU 72. THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN EXTENSIVE. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR-TERM
AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION COUNTERACT THE FAVORABLE
INFLUENCES OF PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT.
FORECAST MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST
SCENARIO, BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD BETWEEN THE WESTERN
OUTLIER, ECMWF, AND A GROUPING OF MODELS PREDICTING A TRACK FARTHER
TO THE EAST, INCLUDING THE UKMET MODEL. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
PATTERN NEAR TS 06W REMAINS COMPLEX, WHICH IS INFLUENCING THE OUTCOME
OF THE MODEL FORECASTS. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MOST
PROBABLE ORIENTATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW PATTERN, IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST AND LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN NOTED SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LOW.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE POLEWARD
AND EASTWARD AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. SOME WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED,
ALTHOUGH FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH
SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN GALE FORCE OR STRONGER WINDS
DURING THE TRANSITION. THE STORM TRACK DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN NEAR TO MEDIUM-TERM TRACK,
SO CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO LOW.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm DANAS JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN51 PGTW 162100    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 06W NWP 190716202851
2019071618 06W DANAS      003  01 270 03 SATL SYNP 025
T000 172N 1234E 035 R034 110 NE QD 175 SE QD 120 SW QD 145 NW QD 
T012 183N 1221E 040 R034 115 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 090 NW QD 
T024 202N 1214E 045 R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 105 NW QD 
T036 226N 1212E 045 R034 230 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 050 NW QD 
T048 249N 1213E 045 R034 180 NE QD 250 SE QD 160 SW QD 090 NW QD 
T072 293N 1217E 040 R034 150 NE QD 220 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD 
T096 334N 1232E 040 R034 150 NE QD 220 SE QD 090 SW QD 085 NW QD 
T120 375N 1260E 040 R034 120 NE QD 220 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD 
AMP
    120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR 003    
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR 003    
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161800Z --- NEAR 17.2N 123.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 123.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 18.3N 122.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 20.2N 121.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 22.6N 121.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 24.9N 121.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 29.3N 121.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 33.4N 123.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 37.5N 126.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 123.1E.
16JUL19. TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 209 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.
//
0619071106  62N1444E  15
0619071112  62N1431E  15
0619071118  64N1421E  15
0619071200  66N1414E  15
0619071206  71N1406E  15
0619071212  76N1400E  15
0619071218  81N1393E  15
0619071300  89N1383E  15
0619071306  97N1376E  15
0619071312 103N1369E  15
0619071318 116N1363E  15
0619071400 126N1360E  15
0619071406 141N1356E  15
0619071412 152N1351E  15
0619071418 158N1340E  20
0619071500 160N1329E  20
0619071506 168N1305E  20
0619071512 169N1290E  20
0619071518 170N1276E  20
0619071600 167N1265E  20
0619071606 170N1251E  25
0619071612 172N1237E  30
0619071618 172N1234E  35
NNNN

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