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What is a Hurricane?

A hurricane (or typhoon, or severe tropical cyclone), the strongest storm on Earth, is a cyclonic (rotary) storm that derives its energy from cloud formation and rainfall, unlike frontal cyclones that derive their power from a temperature gradient. Full Article

The Saffir-Simpson Scale

Category 1 – 74-95 mph (64-82 knots; 119-153 km/hr). Damage is limited to foliage, signage, unanchored boats and mobile homes. There is no significant damage to buildings. The main threat to life and property may be flooding from heavy rains.

Category 2 – 96-110 mph (83-95 knots; 154-177 km/hr). Roof damage to buildings. Doors and windows damaged. Mobile homes severely damaged. Piers damaged by storm surge. Some trees blown down, more extensive limb damage. Full Article

Tropical Cyclone Formation

Tropical Cyclone Genesis is the technical term for the process of storm formation that leads ultimately to what are called hurricanes, typhoons, or tropical cyclones in various parts of the world.

This occurs when, in the Northern Hemisphere, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ, shifts northward out of the doldrums and atmospheric conditions become favorable for tropical cyclone formation after about the middle of May. Full Article

Tropical Storm HECTOR Forecast Graphic
Tropical Storm HECTOR Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Storm HECTOR Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Storm HECTOR Storm-Centered Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement)
Tropical Storm HECTOR Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Storm HECTOR Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (HECTOR) WARNING NR 056    
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140600Z --- NEAR 26.3N 176.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.3N 176.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 27.4N 173.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 28.7N 170.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 30.1N 167.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 31.5N 165.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 35.3N 164.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 38.8N 165.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 26.6N 175.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 10E (HECTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 992 NM
NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
140600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 
150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) 
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm HECTOR JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN52 PGTW 140900    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 10E NEP 180814080358
2018081406 10E HECTOR     056  03 295 10 SATL 020
T000 263N 1760E 035 
T012 274N 1731E 035 R034 065 NE QD 010 SE QD 005 SW QD 045 NW QD 
T024 287N 1702E 035 R034 070 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 050 NW QD 
T036 301N 1675E 030 
T048 315N 1653E 025 
T072 353N 1642E 025 
T096 388N 1656E 020 
AMP
    072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 10E (HECTOR) WARNING NR 056    
1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (HECTOR) WARNING NR 056    
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140600Z --- NEAR 26.3N 176.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.3N 176.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 27.4N 173.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 28.7N 170.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 30.1N 167.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 31.5N 165.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 35.3N 164.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 38.8N 165.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 26.6N 175.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 10E (HECTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 992 NM
NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1018072800  86N 981W  15
1018072806  86N 981W  20
1018072812  91N 995W  20
1018072818  94N1009W  20
1018072900  96N1021W  25
1018072906  98N1035W  25
1018072912 100N1049W  25
1018072918 102N1062W  25
1018073000 104N1075W  20
1018073006 105N1089W  20
1018073012 107N1102W  25
1018073018 110N1115W  25
1018073100 113N1128W  25
1018073106 118N1141W  25
1018073112 123N1151W  30
1018073118 126N1162W  30
1018080100 130N1176W  35
1018080106 133N1187W  35
1018080112 135N1197W  40
1018080118 137N1207W  45
1018080200 139N1217W  50
1018080200 139N1217W  50
1018080206 141N1228W  60
1018080206 141N1228W  60
1018080212 142N1240W  75
1018080212 142N1240W  75
1018080212 142N1240W  75
1018080218 141N1252W  90
1018080218 141N1252W  90
1018080218 141N1252W  90
1018080300 141N1263W  90
1018080300 141N1263W  90
1018080300 141N1263W  90
1018080306 140N1273W  85
1018080306 140N1273W  85
1018080306 140N1273W  85
1018080312 141N1283W  80
1018080312 141N1283W  80
1018080312 141N1283W  80
1018080318 141N1293W  90
1018080318 141N1293W  90
1018080318 141N1293W  90
1018080400 142N1303W 100
1018080400 142N1303W 100
1018080400 142N1303W 100
1018080406 142N1313W 105
1018080406 142N1313W 105
1018080406 142N1313W 105
1018080412 142N1322W 105
1018080412 142N1322W 105
1018080412 142N1322W 105
1018080418 142N1332W 110
1018080418 142N1332W 110
1018080418 142N1332W 110
1018080500 143N1342W 110
1018080500 143N1342W 110
1018080500 143N1342W 110
1018080506 143N1352W 115
1018080506 143N1352W 115
1018080506 143N1352W 115
1018080512 143N1363W 110
1018080512 143N1363W 110
1018080512 143N1363W 110
1018080518 143N1374W 115
1018080518 143N1374W 115
1018080518 143N1374W 115
1018080600 145N1386W 120
1018080600 145N1386W 120
1018080600 145N1386W 120
1018080606 147N1399W 120
1018080606 147N1399W 120
1018080606 147N1399W 120
1018080612 149N1413W 125
1018080612 149N1413W 125
1018080612 149N1413W 125
1018080618 152N1426W 135
1018080618 152N1426W 135
1018080618 152N1426W 135
1018080700 155N1440W 135
1018080700 155N1440W 135
1018080700 155N1440W 135
1018080706 157N1456W 130
1018080706 157N1456W 130
1018080706 157N1456W 130
1018080712 160N1471W 115
1018080712 160N1471W 115
1018080712 160N1471W 115
1018080718 163N1485W 115
1018080718 163N1485W 115
1018080718 163N1485W 115
1018080800 165N1500W 115
1018080800 165N1500W 115
1018080800 165N1500W 115
1018080806 165N1516W 115
1018080806 165N1516W 115
1018080806 165N1516W 115
1018080812 164N1532W 110
1018080812 164N1532W 110
1018080812 164N1532W 110
1018080818 165N1546W 100
1018080818 165N1546W 100
1018080818 165N1546W 100
1018080900 166N1561W 100
1018080900 166N1561W 100
1018080900 166N1561W 100
1018080906 166N1577W 100
1018080906 166N1577W 100
1018080906 166N1577W 100
1018080912 166N1593W 105
1018080912 166N1593W 105
1018080912 166N1593W 105
1018080918 168N1608W 105
1018080918 168N1608W 105
1018080918 168N1608W 105
1018081000 170N1624W 110
1018081000 170N1624W 110
1018081000 170N1624W 110
1018081006 172N1637W 115
1018081006 172N1637W 115
1018081006 172N1637W 115
1018081012 175N1652W 115
1018081012 175N1652W 115
1018081012 175N1652W 115
1018081018 178N1666W 120
1018081018 178N1666W 120
1018081018 178N1666W 120
1018081100 181N1678W 115
1018081100 181N1678W 115
1018081100 181N1678W 115
1018081106 185N1687W 105
1018081106 185N1687W 105
1018081106 185N1687W 105
1018081112 190N1697W 105
1018081112 190N1697W 105
1018081112 190N1697W 105
1018081118 197N1704W  95
1018081118 197N1704W  95
1018081118 197N1704W  95
1018081200 207N1713W  95
1018081200 207N1713W  95
1018081200 207N1713W  95
1018081206 215N1723W  85
1018081206 215N1723W  85
1018081206 215N1723W  85
1018081212 224N1736W  75
1018081212 224N1736W  75
1018081212 224N1736W  75
1018081218 233N1750W  65
1018081218 233N1750W  65
1018081218 233N1750W  65
1018081300 242N1764W  60
1018081300 242N1764W  60
1018081306 247N1780W  55
1018081306 247N1780W  55
1018081312 251N1797W  45
1018081318 255N1786E  40
1018081400 259N1770E  35
1018081406 263N1760E  35
NNNN
SpaghettiTropical Storm HECTOR Spaghetti Models (UWM)

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Tropical Storm LEEPI Forecast Graphic
Tropical Storm LEEPI Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Storm LEEPI Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Storm LEEPI Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Storm LEEPI Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Storm LEEPI Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 013    
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140000Z --- NEAR 29.3N 136.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 29.3N 136.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 31.4N 132.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 32.8N 129.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 33.4N 128.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 33.5N 127.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 33.0N 125.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 32.3N 124.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 29.8N 135.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
140000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 
150300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) 
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm LEEPI Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 
13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 132316Z GPM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE, HOWEVER, THE
VORTEX IS MUCH MORE POORLY DEFINED IN THE 89 GHZ CHANNEL. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE GMI MICROWAVE EYE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS, BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) AND ROUNDED DOWN SLIGHTLY GIVEN AUTOMATED
FIXES, SCATTEROMETRY DATA, AND THE DEEP LEVEL VORTEX STRUCTURE WHICH
DON'T SUPPORT TYPHOON INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND MODERATE EASTWARD
OUTFLOW INTO A VERY NARROW CHANNEL EXTENDING INTO A STRONG TUTT CELL
TO THE EAST. TS 19W CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND 
NORTHEAST.       
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN, HOWEVER, THE TRACK HAS BEEN 
SHIFTED NORTHWARD BASED ON THE LATEST AVAILABLE ANALYSIS OF TRACK 
MOTION.
   B. TS 19W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36 WHEN A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DISRUPTS THE
STEERING FLOW AND BRINGS HIGH VALUES OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
THE POSITIVE TILT OF THE TROUGH AXIS SUGGESTS THAT RE-CURVATURE IS
UNLIKELY. INSTEAD, THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AND
WEAKEN DUE TO THE VWS AND LOWER SST VALUES. THE WEAKENED SYSTEM WILL
THEN DEFLECT TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW AND
DISSIPATE OVER WATER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE REMNANT CIRCULATION MAY
INTERACT WITH INVEST 98W TO THE SOUTH. THE AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS BI-FURCATED BETWEEN THE RE-CURVE AND SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK
SCENARIOS. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THE TAU 36 BI-FURCATION
POINT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm LEEPI JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN51 PGTW 140300    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 19W NWP 180814015001
2018081400 19W LEEPI      013  03 320 14 SATL 030
T000 293N 1361E 060 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 095 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD 
T012 314N 1328E 050 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 080 SE QD 035 SW QD 055 NW QD 
T024 328N 1297E 040 R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD 
T036 334N 1283E 035 R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD 
T048 335N 1273E 030 
T072 330N 1259E 025 
T096 323N 1247E 020 
AMP
    072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 013    
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNING NR 013    
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140000Z --- NEAR 29.3N 136.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 29.3N 136.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 31.4N 132.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 32.8N 129.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 33.4N 128.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 33.5N 127.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 33.0N 125.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 32.3N 124.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 29.8N 135.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1918080712 126N1535E  15
1918080718 126N1527E  15
1918080800 126N1520E  15
1918080806 126N1514E  15
1918080812 126N1507E  15
1918080818 127N1500E  15
1918080900 129N1496E  15
1918080906 131N1494E  15
1918080912 138N1492E  15
1918080918 149N1484E  15
1918081000 159N1468E  20
1918081006 169N1461E  20
1918081012 171N1454E  20
1918081018 176N1446E  20
1918081100 183N1444E  35
1918081106 191N1440E  45
1918081112 200N1435E  60
1918081112 200N1435E  60
1918081118 207N1430E  55
1918081118 207N1430E  55
1918081200 216N1426E  60
1918081200 216N1426E  60
1918081206 228N1421E  60
1918081206 228N1421E  60
1918081212 237N1415E  65
1918081212 237N1415E  65
1918081212 237N1415E  65
1918081218 247N1406E  65
1918081218 247N1406E  65
1918081218 247N1406E  65
1918081300 257N1396E  65
1918081300 257N1396E  65
1918081306 265N1386E  65
1918081306 265N1386E  65
1918081306 265N1386E  65
1918081312 274N1378E  55
1918081312 274N1378E  55
1918081318 282N1371E  60
1918081318 282N1371E  60
1918081400 293N1361E  60
1918081400 293N1361E  60
NNNN

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Tropical Storm BEBINCA Forecast Graphic
Tropical Storm BEBINCA Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Storm BEBINCA Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Storm BEBINCA Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Storm BEBINCA Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Storm BEBINCA Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN33 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 008    
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140600Z --- NEAR 21.0N 113.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 113.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 21.3N 113.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 21.5N 112.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 21.3N 110.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 20.9N 109.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 19.9N 105.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 20.1N 102.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 113.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 83 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
140600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 
150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNINGS 
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm BEBINCA Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN33 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNING 
NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 83 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH 
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) AND A 140646Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE WHICH DEPICT A PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION 
SHEARED TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED 
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 
(35 KNOTS) BASED ON A 140226Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE WITH A FAIRLY 
LARGE AREA OF 35 KNOTS SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF STRONG (25 TO 
35 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MARGINAL OUTFLOW. TS 20W IS 
DRIFTING SLOWLY IN THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG STEERING INFLUENCE AT 
THIS TIME.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. 
   B. TS 20W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING WESTWARD AS A 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THE INTENSITY SHOULD 
REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT, WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT SKIRTS THE COAST 
OF CHINA BEFORE RE-EMERGING OVER WATER BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48. AFTER 
TAU 48, THE STR SHOULD DEFLECT THE TRACK SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD OVER 
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND SOME REINTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE 
MAKING LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM JUST PRIOR TO TAU 72. 
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 20W WILL MOVE INLAND AND SHOULD DISSIPATE 
BY TAU 96. ALTHOUGH, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HWRF, THE MODEL GUIDANCE 
SHOWS A SIMILAR TRACK, THE SPREAD AMONG THE MEMBERS IS FAIRLY LARGE 
AND, AS A RESULT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST 
TRACK.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm BEBINCA JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN53 PGTW 140900    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 20W NWP 180814075000
2018081406 20W BEBINCA    008  03 300 02 SATL 045
T000 210N 1137E 040 R034 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 085 SW QD 055 NW QD 
T012 213N 1133E 040 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD 
T024 215N 1122E 035 R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD 
T036 213N 1107E 030 
T048 209N 1090E 030 
T072 199N 1056E 035 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD 
T096 201N 1026E 025 
AMP
    096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 008    
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 008    
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140600Z --- NEAR 21.0N 113.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 113.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 21.3N 113.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 21.5N 112.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 21.3N 110.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 20.9N 109.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 19.9N 105.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 20.1N 102.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 113.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 83 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2018080712 152N1140E  20
2018080718 156N1139E  20
2018080800 158N1130E  20
2018080806 160N1126E  20
2018080812 165N1126E  20
2018080818 170N1126E  20
2018080900 175N1126E  20
2018080906 181N1121E  20
2018080912 187N1113E  20
2018080918 193N1112E  20
2018081000 198N1111E  20
2018081006 204N1111E  20
2018081012 207N1114E  20
2018081018 209N1117E  20
2018081100 215N1118E  20
2018081106 217N1115E  20
2018081112 217N1112E  20
2018081118 213N1111E  20
2018081200 210N1119E  20
2018081206 209N1121E  20
2018081212 206N1124E  25
2018081218 206N1127E  30
2018081300 206N1129E  30
2018081306 206N1131E  35
2018081312 206N1132E  35
2018081318 206N1136E  40
2018081400 209N1139E  40
2018081406 210N1137E  40
NNNN

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook
Graphic provided by Climate Prediction Center