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Tropical Depression 33W Tropical Cyclone BOUCHRA Investigation 92W Situation Map

Tropical Cyclone Formation

Tropical Cyclone Genesis is the technical term for the process of storm formation that leads ultimately to what are called hurricanes, typhoons, or tropical cyclones in various parts of the world.

This occurs when, in the Northern Hemisphere, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ, shifts northward out of the doldrums and atmospheric conditions become favorable for tropical cyclone formation after about the middle of May.

A series of low-pressure ripples develops within the ITCZ. These are known as tropical waves and progress from east to west. In the late season, they typically shift their movement toward the west-nothwest, or even northwest, after crossing 45° or 50° W longitude. Full Article

Tropical Depression 33W Forecast Graphic
Tropical Depression 33W Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Depression 33W Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Depression 33W Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Depression 33W Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Depression 33W Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE) WARNING NR 006    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191200Z --- NEAR 9.1N 129.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.1N 129.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 10.0N 127.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 10.4N 124.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 10.7N 121.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 10.9N 118.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 11.2N 113.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 11.4N 110.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 12.1N 107.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 129.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 608
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
NNNN
Tropical Depression 33W Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE) 
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 
608 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN 
ELONGATED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY. A 
191220Z METOP-A MHS 89GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE 
BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL 
POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. TD 33W CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP 
DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW AND WARM SST (28-29C). 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE REMAINED FLAT AT T1.5 (25 KNOTS), 
HOWEVER, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT 
30 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS. 
TD 33W IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.     
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 33W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD 
THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
STR. TD 33W SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT CONTINUES 
TO STRUGGLE IN MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND CROSSES THE PHILIPPINES.  
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 160NM 
IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.  
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 33W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WHILE TRANSITIONING 
TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN STR. THERE IS INCREASING 
UNCERTAINTY WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED AND THE 
TIMING OF LANDFALL OVER EASTERN VIETNAM. HOWEVER, THE JTWC 
FORECAST TRACK FAVORS A FLATTER TRACK AND IS POSITIONED ON THE 
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. TD 
33W SHOULD REINTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 96 UNDER 
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY IMPROVED POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW AND SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES OF VWS. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
Tropical Depression 33W JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN52 PGTW 191500    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 33W NWP 181119140419
2018111912 33W THIRTYTHRE 006  01 295 12 SATL 060
T000 091N 1297E 030 
T012 100N 1274E 030 
T024 104N 1248E 035 R034 100 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 140 NW QD 
T036 107N 1218E 035 R034 080 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 140 NW QD 
T048 109N 1187E 040 R034 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 080 NW QD 
T072 112N 1138E 050 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 120 NW QD 
T096 114N 1102E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD 
T120 121N 1074E 040 R034 060 NE QD 130 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD 
AMP
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING    
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE) WARNING NR 006    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191200Z --- NEAR 9.1N 129.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.1N 129.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 10.0N 127.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 10.4N 124.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 10.7N 121.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 10.9N 118.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 11.2N 113.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 11.4N 110.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 12.1N 107.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 129.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 608
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
3318110206  80N1590W  20
3318110212  80N1592W  20
3318110218  81N1597W  20
3318110300  83N1603W  20
3318110306  84N1613W  20
3318110312  84N1625W  25
3318110318  82N1637W  25
3318110400  78N1648W  25
3318110406  76N1658W  25
3318110412  74N1672W  25
3318110418  77N1689W  25
3318110500  76N1708W  25
3318110506  75N1727W  25
3318110512  73N1743W  25
3318110518  73N1756W  25
3318110600  73N1770W  25
3318110606  72N1780W  25
3318110612  69N1791W  25
3318110618  71N1799W  25
3318110700  70N1791E  20
3318110706  66N1784E  20
3318110712  63N1781E  20
3318110718  68N1779E  20
3318110800  70N1772E  20
3318110806  74N1767E  20
3318110812  77N1760E  20
3318110818  79N1752E  20
3318110900  80N1744E  20
3318110906  84N1734E  20
3318110912  86N1721E  20
3318110918  86N1708E  20
3318111000  85N1702E  20
3318111006  82N1696E  20
3318111012  81N1687E  15
3318111018  95N1672E  20
3318111100 106N1659E  20
3318111106 113N1644E  15
3318111112 116N1628E  15
3318111118 115N1617E  15
3318111200 113N1611E  15
3318111206 107N1602E  20
3318111212 101N1593E  20
3318111218  98N1581E  20
3318111300  95N1570E  20
3318111306  91N1559E  20
3318111312  90N1551E  20
3318111318  91N1544E  20
3318111400  94N1536E  20
3318111406  91N1525E  20
3318111412  87N1512E  20
3318111418  83N1501E  20
3318111500  78N1485E  20
3318111506  73N1477E  20
3318111512  72N1470E  20
3318111518  74N1463E  20
3318111600  74N1456E  20
3318111606  73N1447E  20
3318111612  73N1434E  20
3318111618  72N1421E  20
3318111700  72N1409E  20
3318111706  72N1396E  20
3318111712  71N1383E  20
3318111718  69N1368E  20
3318111800  65N1356E  20
3318111806  64N1342E  25
3318111812  66N1336E  30
3318111818  72N1330E  30
3318111900  80N1321E  30
3318111906  86N1308E  30
3318111912  91N1297E  30
NNNN

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Tropical Cyclone BOUCHRA Forecast Graphic
Tropical Cyclone BOUCHRA Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Cyclone BOUCHRA Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Cyclone BOUCHRA Storm-Centered Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement)
Tropical Cyclone BOUCHRA Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Cyclone BOUCHRA Warning Text (JTWC)
WTXS32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 019    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191200Z --- NEAR 15.2S 80.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 80.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 15.8S 79.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 16.3S 77.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 16.5S 76.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 16.5S 74.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 80.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 672 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WITH A LARGE AREA OF 
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 191159Z F-18 
SSMIS 91GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN 
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION 
DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA AS WELL AS A PGTW 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/3.5 (45/55 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 04S IS TRACKING 
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING 
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN 
WESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO ANOTHER STR EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE 
SOUTHWEST. TC 04S WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD 
AS VWS INCREASES AND SST VALUES DECREASE TO 25C. THE SYSTEM IS 
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT 
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTIMODEL 
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 18 FEET. 
NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone BOUCHRA JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTXS52 PGTW 191500    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 04S SIO 181119130740
2018111912 04S BOUCHRA    019  01 225 10 SATL 060
T000 152S 0804E 050 R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD 
T012 158S 0791E 045 R034 060 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 000 NW QD 
T024 163S 0777E 040 R034 010 NE QD 090 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD 
T036 165S 0762E 035 R034 010 NE QD 120 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD 
T048 165S 0747E 030 
AMP
    036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 019    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191200Z --- NEAR 15.2S 80.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 80.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 15.8S 79.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 16.3S 77.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 16.5S 76.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 16.5S 74.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 80.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 672 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
0418110812  58S 881E  15
0418110818  60S 886E  15
0418110900  57S 893E  15
0418110906  52S 899E  15
0418110912  49S 903E  20
0418110918  48S 906E  25
0418111000  50S 908E  30
0418111006  55S 905E  35
0418111012  58S 900E  35
0418111018  56S 895E  35
0418111100  56S 890E  35
0418111106  55S 882E  45
0418111109  53S 885E  45
0418111112  53S 889E  40
0418111118  53S 890E  40
0418111200  55S 891E  35
0418111206  59S 893E  40
0418111212  62S 893E  40
0418111218  66S 893E  40
0418111300  69S 899E  35
0418111306  72S 902E  30
0418111312  71S 904E  25
0418111318  71S 906E  25
0418111400  66S 915E  25
0418111406  66S 917E  25
0418111412  71S 914E  25
0418111418  73S 910E  25
0418111500  82S 913E  25
0418111506  84S 919E  25
0418111512  87S 926E  25
0418111518  87S 919E  25
0418111600  87S 912E  25
0418111606  99S 919E  25
0418111612 102S 913E  25
0418111618 104S 903E  25
0418111700 107S 893E  30
0418111706 112S 884E  30
0418111712 114S 874E  30
0418111718 114S 863E  35
0418111800 116S 853E  40
0418111806 122S 844E  50
0418111812 128S 837E  50
0418111812 128S 837E  50
0418111818 134S 823E  50
0418111818 134S 823E  50
0418111900 138S 818E  55
0418111900 138S 818E  55
0418111906 145S 811E  55
0418111906 145S 811E  55
0418111912 152S 804E  50
0418111912 152S 804E  50
NNNN

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