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Tropical Cyclone OMA Investigation 92W Situation Map

Tropical Cyclone Formation

Tropical Cyclone Genesis is the technical term for the process of storm formation that leads ultimately to what are called hurricanes, typhoons, or tropical cyclones in various parts of the world.

This occurs when, in the Northern Hemisphere, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ, shifts northward out of the doldrums and atmospheric conditions become favorable for tropical cyclone formation after about the middle of May.

A series of low-pressure ripples develops within the ITCZ. These are known as tropical waves and progress from east to west. In the late season, they typically shift their movement toward the west-nothwest, or even northwest, after crossing 45° or 50° W longitude. Full Article

Tropical Cyclone OMA Forecast Graphic
Tropical Cyclone OMA Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Cyclone OMA Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Cyclone OMA Storm-Centered Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement)
Tropical Cyclone OMA Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Cyclone OMA Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 028    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 162.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 162.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 19.8S 162.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 20.6S 161.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 22.2S 160.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 24.3S 159.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 26.3S 159.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 27.3S 161.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 28.1S 165.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 162.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 267 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS 
CONVECTION INTENSIFIES AND RAIN BANDS WRAP INTO A RAGGED EYE-LIKE 
FEATURE SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE TC 
REMAINS EXPANSIVE WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION WITHIN THE 
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE ON A 181717Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. WITH OBJECTIVE DVORAK 
ESTIMATES OF PGTW 4.0 (65 KNOTS) AND KNES 4.5 (77 KNOTS), THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS CONSERVATIVELY RAISED TO 60 KNOTS, GIVEN THE 
RAGGED NATURE OF THE LARGE EYE-LIKE FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES TC 15P IS UNDER LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) 
THAT IS PARTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS 
CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER FAVORABLE (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC 15P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER 
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 
AFTER TAU 72, IT WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE ALONG AN 
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMING SSTS AND 
INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FUEL A MODEST INTENSIFICATION THAT 
WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING 
SSTS WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE TO 50 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. AROUND TAU 96, TC 15P WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION 
AND BY TAU 120 WILL BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL AS A STORM-FORCE COLD-
CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48, BUT SPREADS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY 
AFTERWARD. SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS INCLUDE THE ECMI, WHICH INDICATES A 
TRACK OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA AND EGRI, WHICH TURNS THE SYSTEM TO THE 
EAST. THUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP 
TO TAU 48 AND LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 
AT 181800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z 
AND 192100Z.//
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone OMA JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPS51 PGTW 182100    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 15P SWP 190218203421
2019021818 15P OMA        028  01 215 06 SATL 050
T000 190S 1627E 060 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 185 SE QD 160 SW QD 150 NW QD 
T012 198S 1621E 065 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 160 NW QD 
T024 206S 1616E 065 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 170 NW QD 
T036 222S 1604E 065 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 170 NW QD 
T048 243S 1594E 060 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD 
T072 263S 1596E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 200 SE QD 260 SW QD 200 NW QD 
T096 273S 1619E 055 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 210 SE QD 270 SW QD 260 NW QD 
T120 281S 1653E 050 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 230 SE QD 280 SW QD 260 NW QD 
AMP
    096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 028    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 028    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 162.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 162.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 19.8S 162.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 20.6S 161.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 22.2S 160.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 24.3S 159.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 26.3S 159.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 27.3S 161.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 28.1S 165.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 162.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 267 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.
//
1519021006 174S1564E  20
1519021012 174S1577E  20
1519021018 174S1590E  25
1519021100 164S1603E  25
1519021106 155S1612E  25
1519021112 151S1625E  25
1519021118 144S1636E  30
1519021200 140S1645E  35
1519021206 137S1649E  35
1519021212 137S1655E  45
1519021218 140S1658E  45
1519021300 143S1654E  45
1519021306 144S1650E  45
1519021312 141S1654E  55
1519021312 141S1654E  55
1519021318 144S1654E  55
1519021318 144S1654E  55
1519021400 147S1655E  55
1519021400 147S1655E  55
1519021406 149S1655E  55
1519021406 149S1655E  55
1519021412 151S1655E  55
1519021412 151S1655E  55
1519021418 152S1654E  55
1519021418 152S1654E  55
1519021500 151S1650E  60
1519021500 151S1650E  60
1519021506 151S1651E  65
1519021506 151S1651E  65
1519021506 151S1651E  65
1519021512 152S1648E  70
1519021512 152S1648E  70
1519021512 152S1648E  70
1519021518 153S1645E  70
1519021518 153S1645E  70
1519021518 153S1645E  70
1519021600 154S1643E  70
1519021600 154S1643E  70
1519021600 154S1643E  70
1519021606 154S1642E  70
1519021606 154S1642E  70
1519021606 154S1642E  70
1519021612 153S1642E  70
1519021612 153S1642E  70
1519021612 153S1642E  70
1519021618 153S1644E  65
1519021618 153S1644E  65
1519021618 153S1644E  65
1519021700 155S1642E  65
1519021700 155S1642E  65
1519021700 155S1642E  65
1519021706 160S1643E  60
1519021706 160S1643E  60
1519021712 164S1644E  60
1519021712 164S1644E  60
1519021718 168S1644E  55
1519021718 168S1644E  55
1519021800 173S1640E  50
1519021800 173S1640E  50
1519021806 180S1636E  45
1519021812 185S1631E  50
1519021812 185S1631E  50
1519021818 190S1627E  60
1519021818 190S1627E  60
NNNN

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