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Tropical Cyclone DESMOND Situation Map

Tropical Cyclone Formation

Tropical Cyclone Genesis is the technical term for the process of storm formation that leads ultimately to what are called hurricanes, typhoons, or tropical cyclones in various parts of the world.

This occurs when, in the Northern Hemisphere, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ, shifts northward out of the doldrums and atmospheric conditions become favorable for tropical cyclone formation after about the middle of May.

A series of low-pressure ripples develops within the ITCZ. These are known as tropical waves and progress from east to west. In the late season, they typically shift their movement toward the west-nothwest, or even northwest, after crossing 45° or 50° W longitude. Full Article

Tropical Cyclone DESMOND Forecast Graphic
Tropical Cyclone DESMOND Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Cyclone DESMOND Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Cyclone DESMOND Storm-Centered Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement)
Tropical Cyclone DESMOND Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Cyclone DESMOND Warning Text (JTWC)
WTXS31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 003    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201200Z --- NEAR 22.2S 38.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 38.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 20.5S 38.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 19.0S 37.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 18.1S 37.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 17.1S 36.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 38.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DESMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM WEST
OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A WEAK BUT
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION DISPLACED 40 NM TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE
201110Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT ALSO HIGHLIGHTS THE DISPLACEMENT
OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION, FULLY REVEALING THE LLC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 AND REFLECTS THE
SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET
BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TC 10S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST AND
ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AFRICA, MAKING LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36 OVER
NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS TO A PEAK OF 50
KNOTS BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING MOSTLY DUE TO DIMINISHING OUTFLOW
AND INCREASING VWS. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 10S WILL RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SPREAD OUT EVEN MORE WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING A
REVERSE TRACK BACK INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AFTER LANDFALL. THIS
IS LIKELY AN INDICATION OF EXCESSIVE BINARY INTERACTION WITH A
SECONDARY CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF
MADAGASCAR. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.//
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone DESMOND JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTXS51 PGTW 201500    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 10S SIO 190120135824
2019012012 10S DESMOND    003  01 010 07 SATL 025
T000 222S 0389E 040 R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD 280 SW QD 080 NW QD 
T012 205S 0386E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 125 SE QD 200 SW QD 180 NW QD 
T024 190S 0379E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 125 SE QD 200 SW QD 180 NW QD 
T036 181S 0372E 040 R034 020 NE QD 110 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD 
T048 171S 0367E 030 
AMP
    036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 003    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 003    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201200Z --- NEAR 22.2S 38.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 38.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 20.5S 38.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 19.0S 37.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 18.1S 37.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 17.1S 36.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 38.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM WEST
OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED  AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z AND 211500Z.
//
1019011718 249S 391E  25
1019011800 244S 386E  20
1019011806 239S 380E  25
1019011812 234S 375E  25
1019011818 231S 368E  25
1019011900 236S 369E  25
1019011906 239S 372E  25
1019011912 245S 380E  25
1019011918 242S 383E  30
1019012000 237S 384E  40
1019012006 229S 388E  40
1019012012 222S 389E  40
NNNN

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