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Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Situation Map
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Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Forecast Graphic
Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 007    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150600Z --- NEAR 11.7N 127.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N 127.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 12.0N 127.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 12.1N 126.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 12.1N 124.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 12.0N 123.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            380 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 11.3N 120.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 10.5N 117.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            325 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 9.3N 114.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            360 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 127.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 423 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 150600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z,
160300Z AND 160900Z.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm KAI-TAK Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK) 
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 423 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY-DEVELOPING CENTRAL COLD COVER (WITH CLOUD 
TOP TEMPERATURES -82C) OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 150714Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWING CONVECTIVE BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED BUT BROAD CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS AND REMAINS HEDGED ABOVE THE DVORAK ESTIMATES 
OF T2.0-2.5 (30-35 KNOTS) BASED ON A 150700Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 44 
KNOTS AND RECENT ASCAT DATA SHOWING AT LEAST 40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE 
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM PAGASA SHOWS HEAVY 
RAIN BANDS PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. UPPER-LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG 
(30 TO 35 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY STRONG 
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TS 32W IS LOCATED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING 
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND 
NORTHEAST, AND A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH, 
THEREFORE, MOTION IS SLOW AND PERHAPS QUASI-STATIONARY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE IS A MODERATE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN 
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING 
INFLUENCES AND BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC. HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODEL 
TRACKERS ARE NOW IN EXCEPTIONALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, AND 
DEPICT A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER WATER THROUGH TAU 36.  
THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS 
IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MAINTAIN AT 50 KNOTS AS IS TYPICAL WITH 
CENTRAL COLD COVER SCENARIOS. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, TS 32W SHOULD 
WEAKEN GRADUALLY DUE TO PERSISTENT VWS AND LAND INTERACTION AS IT 
TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 32W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH A 
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT. SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION IS 
EXPECTED BUT THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW. 
DISSIPATION IS ANTICIPATED AFTER TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW. OVERALL, THERE IS 
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm KAI-TAK JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN51 PGTW 150900    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 32W NWP 171215074240
2017121506 32W KAI-TAK    007  01 270 01 SATL RADR 060
T000 117N 1276E 045 R034 105 NE QD 080 SE QD 105 SW QD 130 NW QD 
T012 120N 1270E 050 R050 035 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 085 SE QD 140 SW QD 190 NW QD 
T024 121N 1261E 050 R050 035 NE QD 015 SE QD 025 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 070 SE QD 125 SW QD 235 NW QD 
T036 121N 1249E 045 R034 160 NE QD 040 SE QD 085 SW QD 290 NW QD 
T048 120N 1233E 035 R034 235 NE QD 020 SE QD 050 SW QD 380 NW QD 
T072 113N 1200E 030 
T096 105N 1172E 035 R034 250 NE QD 055 SE QD 195 SW QD 325 NW QD 
T120 093N 1147E 040 R034 310 NE QD 060 SE QD 255 SW QD 360 NW QD 
AMP
SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 007    
1. TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 007    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150600Z --- NEAR 11.7N 127.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N 127.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 12.0N 127.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 12.1N 126.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 12.1N 124.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 12.0N 123.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            380 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 11.3N 120.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 10.5N 117.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            325 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 9.3N 114.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            360 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 127.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 423 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 150600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z,
160300Z AND 160900Z.//
3217121018  71N1345E  15
3217121100  72N1335E  15
3217121106  76N1327E  20
3217121112  82N1320E  20
3217121118  85N1319E  20
3217121200  89N1316E  15
3217121206  97N1310E  15
3217121212 107N1303E  20
3217121218 111N1297E  15
3217121300 112N1294E  20
3217121306 112N1288E  20
3217121312 113N1285E  20
3217121318 113N1283E  25
3217121400 113N1281E  30
3217121406 114N1279E  30
3217121412 115N1277E  35
3217121418 116N1277E  40
3217121500 117N1277E  45
3217121506 117N1276E  45
NNNN

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