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Tropical Cyclone GABEKILE Situation Map

Tropical Cyclone Formation

Tropical Cyclone Genesis is the technical term for the process of storm formation that leads ultimately to what are called hurricanes, typhoons, or tropical cyclones in various parts of the world.

This occurs when, in the Northern Hemisphere, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ, shifts northward out of the doldrums and atmospheric conditions become favorable for tropical cyclone formation after about the middle of May.

A series of low-pressure ripples develops within the ITCZ. These are known as tropical waves and progress from east to west. In the late season, they typically shift their movement toward the west-nothwest, or even northwest, after crossing 45° or 50° W longitude. Full Article

Tropical Cyclone GABEKILE Forecast Graphic
Tropical Cyclone GABEKILE Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Cyclone GABEKILE Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Cyclone GABEKILE Storm-Centered Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement)
Tropical Cyclone GABEKILE Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Cyclone GABEKILE Warning Text (JTWC)
WTXS32 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 004    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161200Z --- NEAR 20.2S 75.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 75.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 20.8S 74.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 21.3S 74.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 21.8S 74.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 22.3S 73.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 23.2S 73.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 24.2S 72.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 75.0E.
16FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GABEKILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 
799 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS (KTS) 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) REVEALS A SMALL SYSTEM WITH SOME EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND 
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A PARTIAL EYEWALL IN A 161141Z GMI 
COLORIZED 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL 75 KT INTENSITY IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, AS 
EVIDENCED BY MULTI-AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK FIX INTENSITIES RANGING 
FROM AROUND T4.0 TO T5.0 (65 TO 90 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY MODERATE VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS), CURRENTLY AT AROUND 20 KTS BUT WITH MUCH STRONGER 
VWS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 16S IS TRACKING ALONG THE 
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). ALSO, THERE IS A 
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST THAT MAY BE BEGINNING TO IMPACT 
THE SYSTEM, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI SUGGESTS VWS MAY BE INCREASING 
AND THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE 
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS GENERALLY POLEWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE 
FORECAST. HOWEVER, WITH THOSE TWO STEERING INFLUENCES ALONG WITH 
ANOTHER STR SITUATED BEHIND THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, THE STEERING 
ENVIRONMENT IS VERY COMPLEX. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK 
POLEWARD, VWS WILL INCREASE AND 16S SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY UNTIL 
DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY 
UNCERTAIN, IT GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM THE 
COAMPS-TC WITH GFS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS BECAUSE THE TRACK FROM THAT 
INTENSITY MODEL MOST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREDICTED STORM TRACK. 
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND, 
SUBSEQUENTLY, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
170300Z AND 171500Z.//
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone GABEKILE JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTXS52 PGTW 161500    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 16S SIO 200216130325
2020021612 16S GABEKILE   004  01 170 09 SATL 020
T000 202S 0750E 075 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD 
T012 208S 0749E 075 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD 
T024 213S 0746E 070 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD 
T036 218S 0742E 060 R050 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD 
T048 223S 0738E 045 R034 020 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD 
T072 232S 0731E 035 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD 
T096 242S 0724E 030 
AMP
    072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 004    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 004    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161200Z --- NEAR 20.2S 75.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 75.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 20.8S 74.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 21.3S 74.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 21.8S 74.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 22.3S 73.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 23.2S 73.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 24.2S 72.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 75.0E.
16FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GABEKILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 799 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z.//
1620021400 144S 749E  25
1620021406 145S 752E  25
1620021412 149S 752E  30
1620021418 154S 750E  30
1620021500 160S 747E  35
1620021506 164S 745E  40
1620021512 171S 743E  45
1620021518 176S 743E  55
1620021518 176S 743E  55
1620021600 184S 745E  75
1620021600 184S 745E  75
1620021600 184S 745E  75
1620021606 193S 748E  75
1620021606 193S 748E  75
1620021606 193S 748E  75
1620021612 202S 750E  75
1620021612 202S 750E  75
1620021612 202S 750E  75
NNNN

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