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Tropical Cyclone VERONICA Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA Situation Map

Tropical Cyclone Formation

Tropical Cyclone Genesis is the technical term for the process of storm formation that leads ultimately to what are called hurricanes, typhoons, or tropical cyclones in various parts of the world.

This occurs when, in the Northern Hemisphere, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ, shifts northward out of the doldrums and atmospheric conditions become favorable for tropical cyclone formation after about the middle of May.

A series of low-pressure ripples develops within the ITCZ. These are known as tropical waves and progress from east to west. In the late season, they typically shift their movement toward the west-nothwest, or even northwest, after crossing 45° or 50° W longitude. Full Article

Tropical Cyclone VERONICA Forecast Graphic
Tropical Cyclone VERONICA Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Cyclone VERONICA Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Cyclone VERONICA Storm-Centered Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement)
Tropical Cyclone VERONICA Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Cyclone VERONICA Warning Text (JTWC)
WTXS32 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 019    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240600Z --- NEAR 20.4S 117.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 117.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 20.6S 117.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 20.7S 116.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 20.9S 115.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 21.4S 113.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 21.9S 111.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 117.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 231 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DEFORMING SYSTEM 
WITH DEEP, BUT INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC EYEWALL CONVECTION, THAT IS 
MAINTAINING A SMALL EYE. THE EYE REMAINS OVER WATER, AND THE NEARBY 
TERRAIN IS FLAT AND RELATIVELY MOIST WITH MANY RIVER BASINS, BUT 
CONVECTION IS STILL STRONGEST IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM 
THAT REMAINS OVER WATER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR 
CONFIDENCE ON THE PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, RADAR LOOP AND SMALL EYE 
IN MSI SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 
KTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE LAND INTERACTION AND 
STRUCTURAL DEFORMATION. MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T5.0 (90 KTS) TO T6.0 (115 KTS), THOUGH THE 
FINAL T NUMBERS ARE DROPPING. A 240559Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 110 KTS. 
OBSERVATIONS FROM PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM TO 
THE EAST OF THE CENTER, READ SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KTS AND SURFACE 
PRESSURE OF 993MB. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST WITH A STRONG 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH AND LOW TO 
MODERATE (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK 
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THEN BEGIN A TURN TO THE WEST AND ACCELERATE AFTER 
TAU 12 AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM 
WILL SKIRT THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA, POSSIBLY EVEN 
BRIEFLY MAKING LANDFALL, AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO LAND 
INTERACTION, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
AS IT MOVES UNDER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL 
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES LEARMONTH, STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN 
THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE 
SYSTEM AND THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW 
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE 
TRACK SPEEDS, SOME NORTH-SOUTH SPREAD, AND TIMING OF THE WESTWARD 
TURN, WITH A 144NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. THE ECMWF, UKMET, 
AND GALWEM SOLUTIONS ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, 
WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION IS TO THE SOUTH. THE JTWC FORECAST IS 
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 
242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S 
(JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone VERONICA JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTXS52 PGTW 240900    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 21S SIO 190324074411
2019032406 21S VERONICA   019  02 150 04 SATL 020
T000 204S 1177E 105 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 090 NW QD 
T012 206S 1176E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD 
T024 207S 1166E 065 R064 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD 
T036 209S 1153E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD 
T048 214S 1139E 040 R034 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD 
T072 219S 1112E 030 
AMP
    048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 019    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 019    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240600Z --- NEAR 20.4S 117.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 117.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 20.6S 117.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 20.7S 116.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 20.9S 115.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 21.4S 113.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 21.9S 111.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 117.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 231 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2119031806 130S1233E  20
2119031812 135S1225E  20
2119031818 139S1218E  30
2119031900 141S1213E  30
2119031906 144S1208E  30
2119031912 146S1202E  35
2119031918 150S1196E  40
2119032000 154S1190E  50
2119032000 154S1190E  50
2119032006 156S1183E  55
2119032006 156S1183E  55
2119032012 157S1179E  75
2119032012 157S1179E  75
2119032012 157S1179E  75
2119032018 159S1177E 110
2119032018 159S1177E 110
2119032018 159S1177E 110
2119032100 163S1176E 125
2119032100 163S1176E 125
2119032100 163S1176E 125
2119032106 168S1175E 125
2119032106 168S1175E 125
2119032106 168S1175E 125
2119032112 172S1173E 115
2119032112 172S1173E 115
2119032112 172S1173E 115
2119032118 175S1170E 110
2119032118 175S1170E 110
2119032118 175S1170E 110
2119032200 176S1169E 110
2119032200 176S1169E 110
2119032200 176S1169E 110
2119032206 178S1169E 110
2119032206 178S1169E 110
2119032206 178S1169E 110
2119032212 180S1169E  95
2119032212 180S1169E  95
2119032212 180S1169E  95
2119032218 182S1169E  90
2119032218 182S1169E  90
2119032218 182S1169E  90
2119032300 187S1170E  80
2119032300 187S1170E  80
2119032300 187S1170E  80
2119032306 190S1171E  85
2119032306 190S1171E  85
2119032306 190S1171E  85
2119032312 194S1173E 100
2119032312 194S1173E 100
2119032312 194S1173E 100
2119032318 198S1175E 105
2119032318 198S1175E 105
2119032318 198S1175E 105
2119032400 201S1175E 115
2119032400 201S1175E 115
2119032400 201S1175E 115
2119032406 204S1177E 105
2119032406 204S1177E 105
2119032406 204S1177E 105
NNNN

Radar

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA Forecast Graphic
Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA Storm-Centered Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement)
Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA Warning Text (JTWC)
WTXS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 010    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 61.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 61.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 17.2S 61.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 17.8S 61.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 18.3S 62.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 19.0S 63.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 20.3S 64.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 21.3S 66.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 23.1S 68.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 61.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 311 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH CONVECTIVE 
BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE. A 
240454Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE 
BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE EYEWALL WITH A RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, 
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH NEAR RADIAL 
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES (28-
29C) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS DUE TO THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE, BETWEEN A RANGE 
OF MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T4.5 (77 
KNOTS) TO T5.0 (90 KTS), ALTHOUGH THE 240417Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 
LOWER, AT 69 KTS. A COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING, 
REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 24, AND CONTINUE TO 
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 115 KTS AT 72 HOURS. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING 
VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT AS TC 22S MOVES UNDER UPPER-LEVEL 
WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AND SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION 
BY TAU 120. TC 22S HAS BACKTRACKED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, 
UNDER THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES OF AN EXTENSION OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS SOUTHWEST AND A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE 
(NER) TO THE NORTH. THE NER WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH, CAUSING TC 
22S TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER TAU 12. DYNAMIC MODEL 
GUIDANCE DID NOT CAPTURE THE CURRENT QUASISTATIONARY PERIOD AND 
SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERS IN NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST SPREAD AS WELL AS ALONG-
TRACK SPEED. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED BEHIND AND WEST OF 
CONSENSUS, TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S 
(VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone JOANINHA JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTXS51 PGTW 240900    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 22S SIO 190324084244
2019032406 22S JOANINHA   010  02 360 02 SATL 040
T000 169S 0616E 080 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 145 SE QD 125 SW QD 110 NW QD 
T012 172S 0616E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD 
T024 178S 0618E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD 
T036 183S 0622E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD 
T048 190S 0630E 110 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD 
T072 203S 0648E 115 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD 
T096 213S 0664E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD 
T120 231S 0681E 080 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 260 SE QD 230 SW QD 120 NW QD 
AMP
    120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 010    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNING NR 010    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 61.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 61.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 17.2S 61.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 17.8S 61.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 18.3S 62.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 19.0S 63.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 20.3S 64.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 21.3S 66.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 23.1S 68.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 61.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 311 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2219031906 117S 631E  20
2219031912 121S 630E  20
2219031918 124S 628E  25
2219032000 127S 624E  25
2219032006 128S 618E  25
2219032012 126S 612E  25
2219032018 126S 610E  25
2219032100 126S 608E  25
2219032106 128S 607E  25
2219032112 132S 613E  25
2219032118 138S 620E  30
2219032200 145S 625E  35
2219032206 147S 627E  35
2219032212 151S 625E  40
2219032218 156S 623E  45
2219032300 160S 623E  55
2219032300 160S 623E  55
2219032306 163S 621E  55
2219032306 163S 621E  55
2219032312 165S 619E  60
2219032312 165S 619E  60
2219032318 168S 617E  65
2219032318 168S 617E  65
2219032318 168S 617E  65
2219032400 171S 616E  75
2219032400 171S 616E  75
2219032400 171S 616E  75
2219032406 169S 616E  80
2219032406 169S 616E  80
2219032406 169S 616E  80
NNNN

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