HOME      ABOUT      ARTICLES      CONTACT      LINKS      CONVERTER
CLICK ON MAP TO ACCESS STORM DETAILS
Situation Map
Legend
Tropical Cyclone FAKIR Investigation 96S Situation Map
What is a Hurricane?     Saffir-Simpson Scale     Tropical Cyclone Formation
Tropical Cyclone FAKIR Forecast Graphic
Tropical Cyclone FAKIR Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Cyclone FAKIR Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Cyclone FAKIR Storm-Centered Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement)
Tropical Cyclone FAKIR Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Cyclone FAKIR Warning Text (JTWC)
WTXS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 002    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z --- NEAR 17.5S 54.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 54.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 20.3S 55.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 22.8S 57.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 24.4S 58.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 25.2S 59.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 54.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING 
INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED 
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES SATELLITE FIXES AND 
A 231642Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE 
BANDING, PREDOMINANTLY IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT, WRAPPING INTO 
A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE 
SYSTEM HAS A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS ENHANCED BY A 
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED OVER MADAGASCAR. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 20S IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH 27-28 
CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHICH REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR 
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED 
ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO 
T3.5 (45-55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. THE INTENSITY IS 
ALSO SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 52 KNOTS. TC FAKIR IS 
CURRENTLY ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD IN ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST 
OVER MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING 
SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SLOWING AFTER 
TAU 24 AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL 
BE FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 12, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO REACH A PEAK OF 
60 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 12, TC 20S WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS, CAUSING A RAPID 
WEAKENING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 20S IS 
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH 
TAU 24, DIVERGING RAPIDLY WITH NAVGEM AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE TURNING 
THE SYSTEM EQUATORWARD WHILE THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS TRACK 
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL GUIDANCE 
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z, AND 242100Z.//
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone FAKIR JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTXS51 PGTW 232100    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 20S SIO 180423194055
2018042318 20S FAKIR      002  01 145 19 SATL 030
T000 175S 0541E 050 R050 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 075 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD 
T012 203S 0558E 055 R050 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 005 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD 
T024 228S 0574E 055 R050 005 NE QD 005 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD 
T036 244S 0585E 045 R034 070 NE QD 145 SE QD 075 SW QD 045 NW QD 
T048 252S 0596E 030 
AMP
    036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 002    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 002    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z --- NEAR 17.5S 54.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 54.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 20.3S 55.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 22.8S 57.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 24.4S 58.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 25.2S 59.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 54.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.
//
2018042112  81S 519E  25
2018042118  86S 512E  25
2018042200  93S 508E  25
2018042206 101S 506E  25
2018042212 111S 506E  25
2018042218 122S 510E  25
2018042300 133S 515E  25
2018042306 146S 521E  35
2018042312 160S 529E  40
2018042318 175S 541E  50
2018042318 175S 541E  50
NNNN

Radar

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook
Graphic provided by Climate Prediction Center