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Updated: Mon 6 Apr 2020 21:07 GMT
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Tropical Cyclone IRONDRO Tropical Cyclone HAROLD Situation Map

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Tropical Cyclone IRONDRO Forecast Graphic
Tropical Cyclone IRONDRO Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Cyclone IRONDRO Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Cyclone IRONDRO Storm-Centered Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement)
Tropical Cyclone IRONDRO Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Cyclone IRONDRO Warning Text (JTWC)
WTXS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 009    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060600Z --- NEAR 26.7S 89.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 89.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 28.8S 92.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 27.2S 90.3E.
06APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
10009 NM SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM AND DEEP CONVECTION 
HAS COMPLETELY TAPERED OFF. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ELONGATED WIND FIELD SEEN IN 060348Z METOP-B 
ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE WIND BARBS SEEN 
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICRICLE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT WIND FIELD. 
TC 24S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A 
DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GIVEN INCREASING VWS (40-50 KNOTS) 
AND COOLING SST (BELOW 25C), TC 24S IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND WILL BECOME A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 12. 
NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE 
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM 
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE 
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 22 FEET.//
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone IRONDRO JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTXS51 PGTW 060900    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 24S SIO 200406074250
2020040606 24S IRONDRO    009  01 125 11 SATL 025
T000 267S 0895E 040 R034 140 NE QD 135 SE QD 135 SW QD 140 NW QD 
T012 288S 0928E 035 R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD 
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 009    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 008    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z --- NEAR 24.8S 88.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.8S 88.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 26.3S 91.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 28.5S 94.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 31.8S 99.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 25.2S 89.2E.
05APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (IRONDRO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1405 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 21
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z.
//
2420033118 130S 692E  20
2420040100 129S 693E  20
2420040106 128S 694E  20
2420040112 127S 695E  25
2420040118 126S 693E  30
2420040200 128S 692E  30
2420040206 131S 696E  35
2420040212 139S 709E  40
2420040218 151S 716E  45
2420040300 161S 725E  50
2420040300 161S 725E  50
2420040306 175S 733E  55
2420040306 175S 733E  55
2420040312 186S 742E  65
2420040312 186S 742E  65
2420040312 186S 742E  65
2420040318 196S 755E  75
2420040318 196S 755E  75
2420040318 196S 755E  75
2420040400 208S 768E  90
2420040400 208S 768E  90
2420040400 208S 768E  90
2420040406 215S 783E  95
2420040406 215S 783E  95
2420040406 215S 783E  95
2420040412 224S 794E  95
2420040412 224S 794E  95
2420040412 224S 794E  95
2420040418 230S 809E  95
2420040418 230S 809E  95
2420040418 230S 809E  95
2420040500 237S 825E  90
2420040500 237S 825E  90
2420040500 237S 825E  90
2420040506 242S 843E  80
2420040506 242S 843E  80
2420040506 242S 843E  80
2420040512 245S 863E  65
2420040512 245S 863E  65
2420040512 245S 863E  65
2420040518 248S 886E  55
2420040518 248S 886E  55
NNNN

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Tropical Cyclone HAROLD Forecast Graphic
Tropical Cyclone HAROLD Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Cyclone HAROLD Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Cyclone HAROLD Storm-Centered Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement)
Tropical Cyclone HAROLD Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Cyclone HAROLD Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 017    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 169.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 169.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 17.4S 172.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 18.7S 175.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 20.1S 179.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 22.1S 176.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 26.9S 165.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 32 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 33.6S 152.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 170.4E.
06APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 507
NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM, WITH THE EYE BECOMING MUCH 
SMALLER AND MORE RAGGED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 061706Z SSMIS 
PASS SHOWED THAT WHILE THE MICROWAVE EYE IS STILL WELL DEFINED IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS AS SHOWN IN THE 89 GHZ BAND, THE FEATURE HAS BECOME 
MUCH LESS DEFINED IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS SHOWN IN THE 37 GHZ BAND. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WRAPPING 
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, EVEN ENTRAINING AROUND 
TO THE EASTERN SIDE AS WELL, AS SHOWN BY A BAND OF WEAK TO NO 
CONVECTION AND A WEAKENING OF THE EYEWALL ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF 
THE CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED 
ON THE SMALL EYE IN BOTH THE INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY NOTED 
ABOVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE 
CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115-140 KTS) FROM PGTW AND PHFO, WITH AN ADVANCED 
DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T7.1 (142 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 25P REMAINS IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KT) VWS, WARM (28-29 DEG C) SSTS AND 
ROBUST OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE ON TOP OF THE 
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS STARTING TO MAKE AN IMPACT ON 
THE STORM, WRAPPING IN TOWARDS THE CORE AND WEAKENING CONVECTION. 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 25P WILL CONTINUE TRACKING 
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED STR 
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN 
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, TC 25P WILL 
STEADILY ACCELERATE TROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM 
ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD, VWS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WHILE SSTS 
DECREASE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN INTO THE SYSTEM, COMBINING 
TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TC 25P THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, 
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES 25-30 DEG LATITUDE, IT WILL BEGIN TO 
INTERACT WITH THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL 
BY TAU 96 AS IT RACES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEEP MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT 
THROUGH TAU 48, WITH SOMEWHAT INCREASED DIVERGENCE THEREAFTER. ALL 
MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO, ONLY DISAGREEING ON THE 
AMOUNT OF SOUTHWARD TRACK COMPONENT AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES 
EXTRATROPICAL, LEADING TO OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC 
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 45 
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.//
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone HAROLD JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPS51 PGTW 062100    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25P SWP 200406193848
2020040618 25P HAROLD     017  01 120 10 SATL 020
T000 165S 1697E 135 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 130 SE QD 115 SW QD 150 NW QD 
T012 174S 1724E 130 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD 
T024 187S 1756E 125 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 160 NW QD 
T036 201S 1792E 115 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 160 NW QD 
T048 221S 1763W 105 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 160 NW QD 
T072 269S 1653W 085 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 180 NW QD 
T096 336S 1527W 055 R050 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 270 SE QD 185 SW QD 180 NW QD 
AMP
    072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 017    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 017    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 169.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 169.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 17.4S 172.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 18.7S 175.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 20.1S 179.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 22.1S 176.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 26.9S 165.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 32 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 33.6S 152.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 170.4E.
06APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 507
NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM, WITH THE EYE BECOMING MUCH SMALLER AND MORE RAGGED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 061706Z SSMIS PASS SHOWED THAT WHILE THE MICROWAVE EYE IS STILL WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS SHOWN IN THE 89 GHZ BAND, THE FEATURE HAS BECOME MUCH LESS DEFINED IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS SHOWN IN THE 37 GHZ BAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, EVEN ENTRAINING AROUND TO THE EASTERN SIDE AS WELL, AS SHOWN BY A BAND OF WEAK TO NO CONVECTION AND A WEAKENING OF THE EYEWALL ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SMALL EYE IN BOTH THE INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY NOTED ABOVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115-140 KTS) FROM PGTW AND PHFO, WITH AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T7.1 (142 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 25P REMAINS IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KT) VWS, WARM (28-29 DEG C) SSTS AND ROBUST OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE ON TOP OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS STARTING TO MAKE AN IMPACT ON THE STORM, WRAPPING IN TOWARDS THE CORE AND WEAKENING CONVECTION. THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 25P WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN REPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, TC 25P WILL STEADILY ACCELERATE TROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM ACCLERATES SOUTHEASTWARD, VWS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WHILE SSTS DECREASE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN INTO THE SYSTEM, COMBINING TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TC 25P THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES 25-30 DEG LATITUDE, IT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND BECOME FULLY EXTRATOPICAL BY TAU 96 AS IT RACES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH SOMEWHAT INCREASED DIVERGENCE THEREAFTER. ALL MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO, ONLY DISAGREEING ON THE AMOUNT OF SOUTHWARD TRACK COMPONENT AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL, LEADING TO OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECSAT TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.//
2520033118  91S1534E  20
2520040100  89S1539E  20
2520040106  89S1544E  20
2520040112  90S1552E  20
2520040118  92S1559E  20
2520040200  94S1563E  25
2520040206  94S1572E  30
2520040212  97S1580E  30
2520040218  99S1595E  35
2520040300 106S1613E  40
2520040306 115S1624E  45
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040618 165S1697E 135
2520040618 165S1697E 135
2520040618 165S1697E 135
NNNN

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Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook
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