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Tropical Storm AMPIL Tropical Depression 13W Tropical Depression SON-TINH Tropical Depression 14W Investigation 96W Situation Map

What is a Hurricane?

A hurricane (or typhoon, or severe tropical cyclone), the strongest storm on Earth, is a cyclonic (rotary) storm that derives its energy from cloud formation and rainfall, unlike frontal cyclones that derive their power from a temperature gradient. Full Article

The Saffir-Simpson Scale

Category 1 – 74-95 mph (64-82 knots; 119-153 km/hr). Damage is limited to foliage, signage, unanchored boats and mobile homes. There is no significant damage to buildings. The main threat to life and property may be flooding from heavy rains.

Category 2 – 96-110 mph (83-95 knots; 154-177 km/hr). Roof damage to buildings. Doors and windows damaged. Mobile homes severely damaged. Piers damaged by storm surge. Some trees blown down, more extensive limb damage. Full Article

Tropical Cyclone Formation

Tropical Cyclone Genesis is the technical term for the process of storm formation that leads ultimately to what are called hurricanes, typhoons, or tropical cyclones in various parts of the world.

This occurs when, in the Northern Hemisphere, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ, shifts northward out of the doldrums and atmospheric conditions become favorable for tropical cyclone formation after about the middle of May. Full Article

Tropical Storm AMPIL Forecast Graphic
Tropical Storm AMPIL Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Storm AMPIL Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Storm AMPIL Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Storm AMPIL Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Storm AMPIL Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 019    
   05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z --- NEAR 31.9N 122.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 31.9N 122.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 33.7N 120.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 35.5N 118.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 37.4N 118.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 39.6N 118.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 32.4N 121.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (AMPIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 328 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER 
TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) 
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W 
(THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS 
(WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm AMPIL Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 
19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (AMPIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 328 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD WITH THE REMAINING
DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 220611Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS
GOOD BANDING WITH AFOREMENTIONED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 12W HAS WEAK TO MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW COOLER BUT REMAIN FAVORABLE, RANGING BETWEEN 27
TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 12W IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH REMAINS
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 12W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. LAND INTERACTION
WILL CAUSE TS 12W TO STEADILY DECREASE IN INTENSITY, REACHING 40
KNOTS BY TAU 12. TS 12W WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN CHINA
THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TS 12W WILL TRACK FARTHER INLAND, THEN
CROSS OVER BOHAI BAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD, AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE
OVER LAND WITH AN INTENSITY OF 20 KNOTS BY TAU 48. OVERALL, DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm AMPIL JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN52 PGTW 220900    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 12W NWP 180722071602
2018072206 12W AMPIL      019  05 330 14 SATL 030
T000 319N 1221E 045 R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD 
T012 337N 1203E 040 R034 125 NE QD 095 SE QD 000 SW QD 070 NW QD 
T024 355N 1187E 035 R034 065 NE QD 045 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD 
T036 374N 1180E 030 
T048 396N 1181E 020 
AMP
    012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 12W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 019    
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (AMPIL) WARNING NR 019    
   05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z --- NEAR 31.9N 122.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 31.9N 122.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 33.7N 120.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 35.5N 118.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 37.4N 118.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 39.6N 118.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 32.4N 121.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (AMPIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 328 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER 
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W 
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS 
HOURLY UPDATES.//
1218071506 150N1311E  15
1218071512 156N1312E  15
1218071518 161N1308E  20
1218071600 166N1302E  20
1218071606 172N1295E  20
1218071612 175N1288E  20
1218071618 182N1288E  20
1218071700 186N1283E  20
1218071706 188N1279E  20
1218071712 190N1275E  20
1218071718 189N1270E  25
1218071800 191N1268E  25
1218071806 193N1276E  30
1218071812 194N1287E  35
1218071818 196N1297E  35
1218071900 201N1306E  40
1218071906 204N1313E  40
1218071912 211N1315E  40
1218071918 220N1313E  45
1218072000 227N1310E  50
1218072000 227N1310E  50
1218072006 233N1306E  50
1218072012 243N1299E  45
1218072018 254N1293E  45
1218072100 268N1280E  45
1218072106 282N1263E  45
1218072112 292N1252E  45
1218072118 300N1241E  45
1218072200 307N1229E  45
1218072206 319N1221E  45
NNNN

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Tropical Depression 13W Forecast Graphic
Tropical Depression 13W Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Depression 13W Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Depression 13W Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Depression 13W Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Depression 13W Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 007    
   05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z --- NEAR 21.9N 124.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 124.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 24.2N 124.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 26.7N 124.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 29.1N 123.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 31.0N 121.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 124.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 
239 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD 
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 
222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W 
(SON-TINH) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (AMPIL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) 
WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) 
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Tropical Depression 13W Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) 
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 239
NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAIN BUT THE OVERALL STORM
STRUCTURE HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS BECOMING DISORGANIZED AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A
220641Z 36GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS EVIDENCE OF WEAK LOW
LEVEL BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TD 13W HAS VERY WEAK POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS
FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE, RANGING BETWEEN 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 13W IS
TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 13W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD WHILE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE ALSO
BECOMES INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED. TD 13W WILL MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY
OF 30 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24 TD 13W WILL TRACK
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS
A DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER TAU 24 AND THAT TD 13W MAY DISSIPATE
JUST PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN A 100NM SPREAD. THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
Tropical Depression 13W JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN51 PGTW 220900    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 13W NWP 180722075846
2018072206 13W THIRTEEN   007  05 040 15 SATL 060
T000 219N 1241E 030 
T012 242N 1244E 030 
T024 267N 1240E 030 
T036 291N 1230E 025 
T048 310N 1218E 020 
AMP
    036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 007    
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 007    
   05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z --- NEAR 21.9N 124.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 124.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 24.2N 124.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 26.7N 124.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 29.1N 123.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 31.0N 121.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 124.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 
239 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD 
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 
222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W 
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) 
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1318071912 193N1140E  15
1318071918 190N1146E  15
1318072000 187N1151E  15
1318072006 184N1157E  15
1318072012 180N1164E  20
1318072018 179N1172E  25
1318072100 179N1185E  30
1318072106 184N1198E  30
1318072112 191N1207E  30
1318072118 200N1215E  30
1318072200 207N1231E  30
1318072206 219N1241E  30
NNNN

Radar

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Tropical Storm SON-TINH Forecast Graphic
Tropical Storm SON-TINH Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Storm SON-TINH Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Storm SON-TINH Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Storm SON-TINH Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Storm SON-TINH Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN33 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 018    
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W
   05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z --- NEAR 19.2N 108.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 108.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 19.6N 109.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 20.3N 109.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 21.0N 109.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 21.5N 109.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 22.0N 107.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 108.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z 
IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (AMPIL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) 
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) 
WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm SON-TINH Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN33 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (SON-TINH) 
WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE THAT IS ELONGATED (400NM DIAMETER) EAST TO WEST 
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. 
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON VISIBLE 
IMAGERY AND A 220202Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A DEFINED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND BROAD WIND FIELD THAT EXTENDS EAST OF 
HAINAN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING T1.0 TO T2.0 (25 TO 35 
KNOTS), BASED ON AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS 
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF 30 KNOTS 
AND ONE 35 KNOT BARB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS 
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS SLIGHTLY 
INHIBITED BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE 
NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 11W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-
10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH THE WARM (29 
TO 30 CELSIUS) WATERS OF THE GULF OF TONKIN. TS 11W IS TRACKING 
EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL 
RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE 
COAST OF HAINAN AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE SHIFTS FROM THE NER 
TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL 
CONTINUE TO RE-CURVE, REACHING THE AXIS OF CURVATURE AROUND TAU 30 
BEFORE SETTLING ON A NORTHWESTERN TRACK DIRECTION SHORTLY AFTER TAU 
36. OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TONKIN WILL ALLOW TS 
11W TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 DESPITE SOME LAND 
INTERACTION. AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL 
LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, AS THE SYSTEM 
TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CHINA. DYNAMIC MODEL 
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE TO 
THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, AT TAU 36 THERE IS A SPREAD OF OVER 100NM IN 
THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS 
OF THE TURN. THE SPREAD CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH TAU 72. DUE TO 
THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE 
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm SON-TINH JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN53 PGTW 220900    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 11W NWP 180722075445
2018072206 11W SON-TINH   018  05 090 04 SATL 025
T000 192N 1083E 035 R034 000 NE QD 130 SE QD 065 SW QD 000 NW QD 
T012 196N 1092E 035 R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 055 SW QD 020 NW QD 
T024 203N 1098E 035 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 030 NW QD 
T036 210N 1097E 030 
T048 215N 1092E 025 
T072 220N 1073E 020 
AMP
    048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 018    
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 018    
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W
   05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z --- NEAR 19.2N 108.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 108.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 19.6N 109.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 20.3N 109.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 21.0N 109.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 21.5N 109.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 22.0N 107.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 108.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1118071218 160N1398E  20
1118071300 169N1390E  20
1118071306 179N1383E  20
1118071312 187N1379E  20
1118071318 194N1370E  20
1118071400 196N1360E  20
1118071406 202N1352E  20
1118071412 205N1339E  20
1118071418 206N1322E  20
1118071500 203N1308E  20
1118071506 198N1294E  20
1118071512 191N1281E  25
1118071518 190N1268E  25
1118071600 190N1253E  30
1118071606 188N1240E  30
1118071612 187N1222E  30
1118071618 190N1204E  30
1118071700 193N1181E  35
1118071706 193N1157E  35
1118071712 191N1134E  40
1118071718 189N1112E  35
1118071800 189N1093E  35
1118071806 189N1080E  40
1118071812 188N1067E  40
1118071818 190N1055E  45
1118071900 192N1046E  40
1118071906 194N1038E  35
1118071912 196N1030E  30
1118071918 201N1027E  25
1118072000 206N1025E  20
1118072006 207N1034E  20
1118072012 210N1042E  15
1118072018 210N1049E  15
1118072100 209N1056E  15
1118072106 204N1063E  20
1118072112 196N1067E  25
1118072118 194N1073E  25
1118072200 192N1079E  30
1118072206 192N1083E  35
NNNN

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Tropical Depression 14W Forecast Graphic
Tropical Depression 14W Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Depression 14W Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Depression 14W Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Depression 14W Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Depression 14W Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN34 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 003    
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W
   05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z --- NEAR 23.0N 160.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 160.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 24.4N 160.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 26.1N 159.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 27.5N 159.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 29.1N 159.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 32.8N 157.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 38.6N 154.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 43.3N 151.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 160.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 338 NM EAST
OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z 
IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (AMPIL) WARNINGS 
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
13W (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER 
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Tropical Depression 14W Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN34 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) 
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 338 NM EAST
OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE 
EAST OF AN EXPOSED AND ELONGATED (EAST-WEST) LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE DUE TO 
THE ELONGATION OF THE EXPOSED LLCC SEEN IN THE MSI LOOP, SUPPORTED 
BY A 220501Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 
35 IS HEDGED JUST HIGHER THAN A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 
KNOTS) AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.2 (32 
KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TS 14W HAS STRONG POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW WHICH IS ENHANCED BY A LARGE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH 
(TUTT) CELL THAT IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MARGINALLY 
UNFAVORABLE (20-25 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) 
WHICH IS CAUSING THE CONVECTION TO SHEAR INTO THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (27-28 CELSIUS). TS 
14W IS TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN 
EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE 
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK INITIALLY NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH 
TAU 48 BEFORE THE TRACK SHIFTS MORE NORTHWESTWARD. INITIAL ALONG 
TRACK SPEED WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 6 AND 8 KNOTS DURING THE FIRST 
72 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TS 14W WILL REMAIN UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM 
WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY UNDER MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
THROUGH TAU 72. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN 
FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 72; HOWEVER, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES 
ARE LOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH 
TAU 72, AND THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED BY 
THE TUTT CELL TO THE EAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY 
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC 
TRACK FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 14W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM 
IS FORECAST TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY OF AROUND 65 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 
72 AND TAU 96. AFTER PEAKING AT TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A 
STEADY WEAKENING TREND AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE 
EAST, INTRODUCING INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
ADDITIONALLY, AFTER TAU 80, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF 35 
DEGREES LATITUDE, WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BECOME UNFAVORABLE 
(< 26 CELSIUS) AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING TREND. AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM 
WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. AFTER TAU 72, THE CONSENSUS 
MEMBERS BEGIN TO SPREAD, LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD BY TAU 96, 
AND AN EVEN GREATER SPREAD AT TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS 
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND DUE TO THE SPREAD IN 
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE 
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
Tropical Depression 14W JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN54 PGTW 220900    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 14W NWP 180722084906
2018072206 14W FOURTEEN   003  05 020 08 SATL 035
T000 230N 1600E 035 R034 120 NE QD 145 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD 
T012 244N 1601E 045 R034 115 NE QD 125 SE QD 010 SW QD 065 NW QD 
T024 261N 1598E 050 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 145 SE QD 025 SW QD 065 NW QD 
T036 275N 1595E 055 R050 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD 
T048 291N 1591E 060 R050 055 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 215 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD 
T072 328N 1577E 065 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 225 NE QD 210 SE QD 065 SW QD 135 NW QD 
T096 386N 1547E 050 R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 060 SW QD 095 NW QD 
T120 433N 1513E 025 
AMP
    096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 003    
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 003    
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W
   05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z --- NEAR 23.0N 160.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 160.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 24.4N 160.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 26.1N 159.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 27.5N 159.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 29.1N 159.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 32.8N 157.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 38.6N 154.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 43.3N 151.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 160.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 338 NM EAST
OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1418071912 152N1593E  15
1418071918 159N1589E  15
1418072000 165N1588E  15
1418072006 172N1590E  15
1418072012 179N1594E  15
1418072018 192N1593E  15
1418072100 203N1588E  15
1418072106 208N1589E  20
1418072112 212N1593E  20
1418072118 218N1595E  25
1418072200 223N1597E  30
1418072206 230N1600E  35
NNNN

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Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook
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