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Typhoon LAN Tropical Depression 27W Situation Map
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Typhoon LAN Forecast Graphic
Typhoon LAN Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Typhoon LAN Storm-Centered Infrared
Typhoon LAN Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Typhoon LAN Storm-Centered Visible
Typhoon LAN Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNING NR 031    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230000Z --- NEAR 37.3N 141.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 36 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 37.3N 141.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 42.4N 149.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            415 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 52 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 46.9N 162.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 325 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            520 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 38.6N 143.6E.
TYPHOON (TY) 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 187 NM SOUTH OF MISAWA,
JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 36 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. TY 25W IS ASSESSED AS AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HAS 
CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL 
STRUCTURE WITH AN EXPOSED, BROAD CENTER AND RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP 
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO 
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW BUT IS 
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN STORM-FORCE WINDS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON 
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM 
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 28 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY 
UPDATES.//
NNNN
Typhoon LAN Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)

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Typhoon LAN JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN52 PGTW 230300    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25W NWP 171023012457
2017102300 25W LAN        031  02 040 36 SATL RADR 060
T000 373N 1416E 065 R064 055 NE QD 085 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 155 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 270 SE QD 165 SW QD 125 NW QD 
T012 424N 1496E 055 R050 055 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 330 NE QD 415 SE QD 270 SW QD 165 NW QD 
T024 469N 1627E 050 R050 065 NE QD 205 SE QD 170 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 325 NE QD 520 SE QD 320 SW QD 270 NW QD 
AMP 000HR EXTRATROPICAL
    012HR EXTRATROPICAL
    024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNING NR 031    
1. TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNING NR 031    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230000Z --- NEAR 37.3N 141.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 36 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 37.3N 141.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 42.4N 149.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            415 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 52 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 46.9N 162.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 325 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            520 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 38.6N 143.6E.
TYPHOON 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 187 NM SOUTH OF MISAWA,
JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 36 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT 
TYPHOONWRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY 
MONITORED FORSIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHT AT 230000ZIS 28 FEET. FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2517101218  83N1442E  15
2517101300  85N1435E  15
2517101306  87N1428E  15
2517101312  87N1417E  15
2517101318  87N1406E  15
2517101400  85N1397E  20
2517101406  83N1392E  20
2517101412  78N1387E  20
2517101418  79N1382E  20
2517101500  85N1379E  20
2517101506  90N1373E  20
2517101512  93N1368E  25
2517101518 101N1364E  30
2517101600 106N1357E  35
2517101606 107N1345E  35
2517101612 107N1333E  35
2517101618 106N1325E  40
2517101700 103N1321E  50
2517101706 100N1322E  50
2517101706 100N1322E  50
2517101712 104N1323E  55
2517101712 104N1323E  55
2517101718 111N1323E  60
2517101718 111N1323E  60
2517101800 119N1323E  65
2517101800 119N1323E  65
2517101800 119N1323E  65
2517101806 129N1323E  65
2517101806 129N1323E  65
2517101806 129N1323E  65
2517101812 140N1318E  65
2517101812 140N1318E  65
2517101812 140N1318E  65
2517101818 147N1314E  65
2517101818 147N1314E  65
2517101818 147N1314E  65
2517101900 154N1306E  65
2517101900 154N1306E  65
2517101900 154N1306E  65
2517101906 163N1301E  75
2517101906 163N1301E  75
2517101906 163N1301E  75
2517101912 170N1300E  75
2517101912 170N1300E  75
2517101912 170N1300E  75
2517101918 180N1299E  75
2517101918 180N1299E  75
2517101918 180N1299E  75
2517102000 188N1300E  85
2517102000 188N1300E  85
2517102000 188N1300E  85
2517102006 197N1301E 100
2517102006 197N1301E 100
2517102006 197N1301E 100
2517102012 202N1303E 110
2517102012 202N1303E 110
2517102012 202N1303E 110
2517102018 207N1307E 130
2517102018 207N1307E 130
2517102018 207N1307E 130
2517102100 214N1312E 135
2517102100 214N1312E 135
2517102100 214N1312E 135
2517102106 223N1319E 135
2517102106 223N1319E 135
2517102106 223N1319E 135
2517102112 238N1326E 135
2517102112 238N1326E 135
2517102112 238N1326E 135
2517102118 255N1333E 135
2517102118 255N1333E 135
2517102118 255N1333E 135
2517102200 278N1338E 125
2517102200 278N1338E 125
2517102200 278N1338E 125
2517102206 299N1346E 115
2517102206 299N1346E 115
2517102206 299N1346E 115
2517102212 321N1363E 105
2517102212 321N1363E 105
2517102212 321N1363E 105
2517102218 346N1386E  90
2517102218 346N1386E  90
2517102218 346N1386E  90
2517102300 373N1416E  65
2517102300 373N1416E  65
2517102300 373N1416E  65
NNNN

Radar

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

Tropical Depression 27W Forecast Graphic
Tropical Depression 27W Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Depression 27W Storm-Centered Infrared
Tropical Depression 27W Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared
Tropical Depression 27W Storm-Centered Visible
Tropical Depression 27W Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN33 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 015    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230600Z --- NEAR 9.2N 147.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.2N 147.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 10.4N 145.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 12.4N 142.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 14.7N 139.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 16.8N 136.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 20.4N 133.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 24.2N 131.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 28.9N 132.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 9.5N 146.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Tropical Depression 27W Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN33 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) 
WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF DEEP 
CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE ABOUT AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE FIXES WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS AND IS HEDGED HIGER 
THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) BASED ON PERSISTENCE 
AND A 222314Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWING SPORADIC AREAS OF 30 KNOTS 
SURROUNDING THE LLCC. THE OSCAT IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A REGION OF 40 
KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS APPROXIMATELY 220 NM TO 
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS IMPROVEMENT 
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS DUE TO A DECREASE IN EASTERLY FLOW AS A WEAK 
INVERTED TROUGH IS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS 
DECREASING INTO THE MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE CATEGORY. SSTS IN THE 
REGION ARE ALSO VERY WARM NEAR 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TD 27W IS 
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF A 
BUILDING MID-TO-LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE 
NORTHEAST.    
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT A MORE 
WESTWARD TRACK WITH AN EARLIER PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED BY 
A WEAKENING TREND IN THE LATER TAUS.
   B. THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE 24 TO 36 HOURS 
WHICH WILL ACCELERATE TD 27W TO THE NORTHWEST. THE EASTERN TUTT WILL 
ADVERSELY INFLUENCE OUTFLOW AND CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS, BUT THEREAFTER CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL SHOW GREAT IMPROVEMENT 
AND TD 27 IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE 
REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL 
GUIDANCE SHOWS A WIDE RANGE OF TRACK POSSIBILITIES IN THE EARLY TAUS 
RELATED TO THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. THE JAPANESE MODELS AND 
NAVGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGH TAU 36 AND 
FAVOR A MORE EASTWARD TRACK. GFS AND HWRF ARE SHOWING A MORE 
AGGRESSIVE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36 AND FAVOR THE FAR 
WESTWARD TRACK SOLUTIONS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 IS 
CONSISTENT WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST, FOLLOWING A TRACK NEAR THE 
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HEDGED TOWARD GFS AND HWRF WITH FAIR 
CONFIDENCE.   
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THERE IS FURTHER UNCERTAINTY DUE TO A 
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING AROUND TAU 48 THROUG 72, PASSING 
POLEWARD OF TD 27W. AS A RESULT OF THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH, THE 
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ERODED TO SOME DEGREE AND UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW WILL BE ENHANCED HELPING TD 27W TO REACH THE PEAK 90 KNOT 
INTENSITY. BEYOND TAU 72 THE STR IS FORECAST TO AGAIN STRENGTHEN 
RESTRICTING THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FROM ENHANCED 
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STRONG ZONAL FLOW FROM THE THE MID-
LATITUDE JET POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN IS ALSO FORECAST TO 
INCREASE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LEADING TO A WEAKENING TREND BEYOND TAU 
96, AND SHOULD KEEP THE TRACK BEYOND TAU 120 SOUTH OF JAPAN. 
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH LARGER SEPARATION IN THE LATER 
TAUS AS A RESULT OF THE DISPARITY IN INTENSITIES BETWEEN MODELS, 
DEPENDENT ON STEERING LEVELS, AND THE TROUGH-RIDGE INTERACTION 
AROUND TAU 48. THE GFS SOLUTION IS STILL THE FURTHEST WESTWARD 
OUTLIER WITH NAVGEM AND THE JAPANESE MODELS SHOWING AN UNREALISTIC 
EASTWARD TURN INTO THE STEERING RIDGE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS 
NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HEDGED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WITH 
LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
Tropical Depression 27W JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN53 PGTW 230900    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 27W NWP 171023080651
2017102306 27W TWENTYSEVE 015  02 285 04 SATL 050
T000 092N 1470E 030 
T012 104N 1450E 035 R034 200 NE QD 160 SE QD 145 SW QD 050 NW QD 
T024 124N 1423E 045 R034 250 NE QD 210 SE QD 155 SW QD 125 NW QD 
T036 147N 1392E 055 R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 250 SE QD 165 SW QD 150 NW QD 
T048 168N 1365E 065 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 175 SE QD 155 SW QD 135 NW QD 
T072 204N 1333E 090 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 165 NW QD 
T096 242N 1315E 075 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 145 SE QD 140 SW QD 185 NW QD 
T120 289N 1326E 075 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 165 SE QD 175 SW QD 210 NW QD 
AMP
SUBJ:  TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 015    
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 015    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230600Z --- NEAR 9.2N 147.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.2N 147.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 10.4N 145.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 12.4N 142.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 14.7N 139.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 16.8N 136.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 20.4N 133.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 24.2N 131.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 28.9N 132.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 9.5N 146.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2717101906 135N1500E  20
2717101912 124N1515E  20
2717101918 122N1517E  25
2717101921 117N1521E  25
2717102000 115N1519E  35
2717102006 116N1515E  35
2717102012 119N1507E  30
2717102018 122N1502E  30
2717102100 121N1496E  30
2717102106 120N1488E  30
2717102112 117N1483E  30
2717102118 113N1477E  30
2717102200 103N1475E  30
2717102206  90N1482E  30
2717102209  89N1487E  30
2717102212  90N1485E  30
2717102218  90N1478E  30
2717102300  91N1474E  30
2717102306  92N1470E  30
NNNN

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