Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
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East Pacific Outlook Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 252306
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, and on Hurricane Lee, located over the
central Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)

...LITTLE LEE WEAKENS A LITTLE... ...NO THREAT TO LAND... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 25 the center of Lee was located near 30.5, -50.6 with movement WSW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 31

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2017


000
WTNT34 KNHC 252038
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2017

...LITTLE LEE WEAKENS A LITTLE...
...NO THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 50.6W
ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1440 MI...2315 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 50.6 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).  The hurricane is expected
to turn toward the west later tonight or on Tuesday, and then move
toward the west-northwest by Wednesday at a slightly faster forward
speed.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Lee remains a very compact a tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force
winds only extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles(55 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 31

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017


000
WTNT24 KNHC 252037
TCMAT4
 
HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017
2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N  50.6W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N  50.6W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N  50.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 30.4N  51.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 30.5N  53.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 31.0N  55.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 31.8N  55.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 34.5N  54.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 40.2N  47.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 46.9N  35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N  50.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 

Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 31

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2017


000
WTNT44 KNHC 252038
TCDAT4

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2017

Little Lee has weakened a little since the previous advisory. Over
the past few hours, the previously clear 10-15 nmi diameter eye has
become cloud filled, briefly becoming completely obscured. An
average of the available intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB,
UW-CIMSS ADT, UW-CIMSS SATCON, and NHC AODT is 75 kt, and that is
initial intensity used for this advisory.

Lee has completed a tight cyclonic loop and is now moving toward
the west-southwest or 255/07 kt.  A narrow mid-level ridge is
expected to continue building to the north of Lee, forcing the
small hurricane on a westward track for the next day or so. As an
upper-level trough approaches from the west, the hurricane should
turn toward the northwest on Wednesday and Thursday as the western
portion of the subtropical ridge erodes. By Friday and beyond, Lee
is forecast to get caught up in the brisk southwesterly flow ahead
of the aforementioned trough and accelerate toward the northeast at
forward speeds in excess of 20 kt. The official track forecast has
been shifted westward closer to the consensus models through 96 h,
and then lies close to the previous advisory track at 120 h.

The modest southeasterly vertical wind shear that has been affecting
Lee today is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF global models to abate
shortly, and remain at less than 10 kt for the next 48 hours or so.
As a result, some slight strengthening will be possible when the
cyclone moves over warmer 28 deg C SSTs in 36-48 hours. Afterwards,
increasing southwesterly vertical shear should induce slow but
steady weakening, with Lee making the transition into an
extratropical low by 120 h when the cyclone will be located over
18C-20C water temperatures and in a 30-40 kt sheared environment.

Lee is forecast to remain a compact hurricane throughout the
forecast period, with only a small increase in the 50- and
34-kt wind radii expected.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 30.5N  50.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 30.4N  51.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 30.5N  53.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 31.0N  55.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 31.8N  55.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 34.5N  54.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 40.2N  47.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  30/1800Z 46.9N  35.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017


000
FONT14 KNHC 252038
PWSAT4

HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017
2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS
...85 MPH...140 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Hurricane Lee Graphics

Hurricane Lee 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 20:45:49 GMT

Hurricane Lee 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 21:23:16 GMT

Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 8:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 the center of Maria was located near 32.0, -73.0 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 39A

Issued at 800 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017


000
WTNT35 KNHC 252341
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 39A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 73.0W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bogue Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 73.0 West.  Maria is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. A
turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Maria will pass east of the coast of
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Maria is forecast to become a tropical storm Tuesday night
or Wednesday.

Maria is a large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).  NOAA buoy 41002, located
about 105 miles west of Maria's center, recently reported sustained
winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft
observations is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area beginning Tuesday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer
Banks...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches over the Outer Banks of North Carolina through
Wednesday.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the
east coast of the United States from Florida through southern New
England.  These swells are also affecting Bermuda, Puerto Rico, the
northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and
the Bahamas.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 39

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017


000
WTNT25 KNHC 252037
TCMAT5

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF DUCK TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.  THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO
BOGUE INLET AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST
OF BOGUE INLET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N  73.1W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 160SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N  73.1W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N  73.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 32.5N  73.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.5N  73.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 34.4N  73.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 35.3N  72.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 36.3N  69.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 180SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 38.8N  60.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 45.0N  45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N  73.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 39

Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017


000
WTNT45 KNHC 252039
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Maria's coldest cloud tops and deepest convection continue to be
over the far eastern and northern portions of the circulation, but a
small area of convection has re-developed near the center this
afternoon.  SFMR data from a NOAA aircraft investigating Maria
indicate that the maximum winds remain near 70 kt, and that the
area of hurricane-force winds extends about 90 nm from the
center over the eastern semicircle.

Maria continues its slow northward trek.  A slow northward motion
should continue for another couple of days as Maria moves around
the western side of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic,
but the forward speed is atypically slow due to ridging over the
northeastern United States.  A deep mid-latitude trough will be
moving into the northeastern U.S. late this week, which is
expected to cause Maria to accelerate northeastward after 72 hours.
The track guidance remains tightly clustered through the first 48 to
72 hours, but there are still some speed differences beyond that
time.  The NHC forecast track lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope through 72 h, and is close to the various consensus aids
late in the period.

Cooler waters, moderate westerly shear, and dry air are expected
to cause a gradual decrease in wind speed over the next few days.
However, Maria is likely to remain a strong cyclone throughout the
forecast period.  Extratropical transition is likely to begin in
96 h with Maria completing this process near the end of the
forecast period.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the
U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will
occur along portions of the North Carolina coast beginning Tuesday,
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

2. Storm surge flooding, especially along the sound side of the
North Carolina Outer Banks, is possible beginning on Tuesday, and a
Storm Surge Watch has been issued for portions of eastern North
Carolina.

3. Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the
east coast of the United States from Florida through southern New
England.  These swells are also affecting Bermuda, Puerto Rico, the
northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and
the Bahamas.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office for more information.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 31.7N  73.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 32.5N  73.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 33.5N  73.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 34.4N  73.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 35.3N  72.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 36.3N  69.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 38.8N  60.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  30/1800Z 45.0N  45.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017


000
FONT15 KNHC 252038
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  39                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   5(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   6(14)   5(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   3( 3)   7(10)   6(16)   4(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  1   5( 6)   7(13)   5(18)   4(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  1   6( 7)   6(13)   7(20)   4(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  2   5( 7)   7(14)   8(22)   4(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  3   6( 9)   9(18)   7(25)   4(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  1   4( 5)   5(10)   2(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  7  19(26)  15(41)   8(49)   3(52)   X(52)   X(52)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  4   8(12)   7(19)   4(23)   3(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  5  13(18)  10(28)   4(32)   3(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  5  10(15)   8(23)   5(28)   2(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  4   5( 9)   5(14)   3(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  4   4( 8)   4(12)   3(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  4   4( 8)   4(12)   2(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  3   3( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   X(10)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Hurricane Maria Graphics

Hurricane Maria 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 23:42:45 GMT

Hurricane Maria 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 21:29:43 GMT

Hurricane Maria Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

Hurricane Maria Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 21:15:53 GMT

Hurricane Maria Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

Hurricane Maria Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 21:35:13 GMT

Hurricane Maria Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

Hurricane Maria Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 20:47:15 GMT

Local Statement for Wakefield, VA

Issued at 458 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC

Issued at 548 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017