Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Tracking

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000

ABNT20 KNHC 241737

TWOAT 



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:



Active Systems:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 

Storm Philippe, located over the central tropical Atlantic. 



Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf 

of Mexico are associated with a surface trough of low pressure and 

an upper-level trough.  Further development, if any, is expected to 

be slow to occur over the next few days while the system moves 

slowly westward.  By the middle of the week, upper-level winds 

are forecast to become too strong for additional development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):

A small area of low pressure located several hundred miles 

south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce 

disorganized shower activity.  Environmental conditions are forecast 

to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression 

could form around mid-week while the system moves 

west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. 

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.



$$

Forecaster Blake

Summary for Tropical Storm Philippe (AT2/AL172023)

  ...PHILIPPE FORECAST TO BATTLE WIND SHEAR MUCH OF THIS WEEK...
 As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 24
 the center of Philippe was located near 16.2, -41.7
 with movement W at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
 

Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 5

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2023  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 241439
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2023
 
...PHILIPPE FORECAST TO BATTLE WIND SHEAR MUCH OF THIS WEEK...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 41.7W
ABOUT 1175 MI...1890 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 41.7 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a motion towards 
the west or west-northwest is forecast during the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Little net change in strength is forecast during 
the next 72 hours.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 

Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Advisory Number 5

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 241439
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023
1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  41.7W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE  80SE   0SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE   0SE   0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  41.7W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  41.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.5N  43.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.9N  45.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.4N  47.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N  49.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.9N  51.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  20SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.0N  52.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  30SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 22.5N  54.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 24.0N  55.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N  41.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 

Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2023  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 241442
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2023

Philippe is a challenging tropical cyclone to analyze this morning. 
On one hand, the overall satellite presentation has improved since 
yesterday, and a 0907Z SSMIS microwave pass shows a possible 
mid-level eye.  Yet the 1-min GOES16 imagery reveals a weak 
low-level swirl southwest of the main convective blob, and ASCAT-B 
near 12Z showed a disorganized inner core with less wind than one 
might expect (albeit very contaminated with rain).  Overall, 
intensity estimates have risen since the last advisory, so the 
initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, similar to the TAFB/SAB values, 
but this should be considered fairly uncertain.

Little change in intensity is forecast with the storm during the 
next couple of days as increasing shear is forecast to otherwise 
counteract a conducive environment.  There are a variety of 
solutions after that point, with some models showing a stronger 
Philippe after finding a lower-shear environment, while others 
suggesting that the storm succumbs to the shear from an 
upper-level trough.  There are no easy answers here with moderate 
shear cases in high SST/moisture conditions well known to have 
higher errors due to an inherent lack of predictability.  The new 
forecast splits the difference in the model guidance, lying near 
the consensus and the previous forecast, and we will just have to 
see if a trend emerges for the eventual intensity of Philippe.

The long-term motion of the storm is westward or 280/10 kt. The 
subtropical ridge to the north of Philippe is forecast to gradually 
weaken and slide eastward in a day or two, allowing the tropical 
storm to move more west-northwestward and northwestward by the 
middle of the week.  Uncertainty grows after that point, with the 
track seemingly dependent on the intensity.  A stronger system 
would probably turn northward, like the GFS/HWRF/HMON models, while 
a weaker one, like the UKMET/ECMWF solutions, would take a left 
turn under the low-level subtropical ridge.  For now, little change 
was made to the long-range forecast given all of the uncertainty.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z 16.2N  41.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 16.5N  43.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 16.9N  45.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 17.4N  47.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 18.0N  49.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  27/0000Z 18.9N  51.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 20.0N  52.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 22.5N  54.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 24.0N  55.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 

Tropical Storm Philippe Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023                                              

000
FONT12 KNHC 241439
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023               
1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

Tropical Storm Philippe Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2023 14:40:59 GMT



 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2023 15:22:57 GMT