263 WTNT32 KNHC 281744 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 200 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022 ...DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 58.2W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF TRINIDAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Trinidad and Tobago * Grenada and its dependencies * Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua * Bonaire * Curacao * Aruba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, the northern coast of Venezuela, and the northeastern coast of Colombia should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 58.2 West. The system is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A westward or west-northwestward motion is expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the southern Windward Islands by tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea or near the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days if the disturbance remains over water. Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm near the southern Windward Islands or while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce heavy rain across the southern Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of Venezuela later today through Wednesday. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected: Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches. St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 5 inches. Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches. Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire: 3 to 5 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the southern Windward Islands this evening and tonight, over Islas Margarita and the adjacent islands Wednesday morning, and over the ABC Islands by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the northeastern coast of Venezuela tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
108 WTNT22 KNHC 281448 TCMAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022022 1500 UTC TUE JUN 28 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ISLAS DE MARGARITA...COCHE AND CUBAGUA. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BONAIRE. THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CURACAO. THE GOVERNMENT OF ARUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ARUBA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES * ISLAS DE MARGARITA...COCHE AND CUBAGUA * BONAIRE * CURACAO * ARUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES TO CUMANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 57.5W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 57.5W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 56.5W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 10.5N 60.5W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 11.3N 64.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 11.7N 68.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.1N 72.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.2N 75.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.1N 78.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 12.0N 84.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 12.5N 90.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.8N 57.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 28/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
000 WTNT42 KNHC 281449 TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 1100 AM AST Tue Jun 28 2022 The system continues to produce vigorous deep convection and also exhibits some banding features. However, reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that there is no well-defined center of circulation at this time. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system again this afternoon. The system is expected to remain in a low-shear and moderately moist atmospheric environment for the next couple of days. However, interaction with land and fast forward motion will likely limit intensification until the system reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea later this week. More significant strengthening, possibly into a hurricane, could occur over the latter area. Although the center position is not precise, the initial motion estimate is kept the same, or 280/20 kt. A strong mid-tropospheric ridge is likely to remain anchored to the north of the system this week. Therefore a continued westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through the forecast period. The official forecast track is mostly unchanged and remains close to the corrected dynamical model consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Windward Islands and northeastern Venezuela tonight through Wednesday. Localized flash flooding will be possible. 2. Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over portions of the southern Windward Islands tonight, over Islas Margarita Wednesday morning, and over the ABC Islands by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northeastern coast of Venezuela tonight and Wednesday evening. 3. There is higher-than-normal uncertainty in the system's forecast intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea late Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts with land from tonight through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 9.8N 57.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/0000Z 10.5N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 29/1200Z 11.3N 64.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 30/0000Z 11.7N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 12.1N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 12.2N 75.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 12.1N 78.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 12.0N 84.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 120H 03/1200Z 12.5N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
000 FONT12 KNHC 281449 PWSAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022022 1500 UTC TUE JUN 28 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 5(27) BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) BLUEFIELDS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 26(35) 2(37) SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) LIMON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) LIMON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) COLON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 4(27) 1(28) X(28) PT GALLINAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CURACAO 34 X X( X) 25(25) 14(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) CURACAO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRENADA 34 2 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 28 7(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) PORT OF SPAIN 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JUANGRIEGO 34 X 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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