Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Tracking

000
ABNT20 KNHC 281745
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Windward Islands:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Two, located a couple of hundred miles east of the
southern Windward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Northern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure centered over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is forecast to move slowly westward or
west-southwestward and approach the coast of Texas during the next
two days. Slow development of the low is possible, and it could
become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it
moves inland. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be
possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. For more
information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products
issued by your National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. This system
is forecast to interact with another tropical wave over the next
several days, and some gradual development is possible later this
week while the overall system moves west-northwestward at around 15
mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two are issued
under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two are issued
under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... As of 2:00 PM AST Tue Jun 28 the center of Two was located near 10.0, -58.2 with movement W at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 200 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022

263 
WTNT32 KNHC 281744
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
200 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022
 
...DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 58.2W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, the northern coast of
Venezuela, and the northeastern coast of Colombia should monitor the
progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
10.0 North, longitude 58.2 West.  The system is moving toward the
west near 23 mph (37 km/h).  A westward or west-northwestward
motion is expected through Thursday.  On the forecast track, the
system will pass near or over portions of the southern Windward
Islands by tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea or near
the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days if
the disturbance remains over water.
 
Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance
remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm near
the southern Windward Islands or while moving westward across the
southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the southern Windward Islands and the northeastern
coast of Venezuela later today through Wednesday.  The following
storm total rainfall amounts are expected:
 
Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches.
 
St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 5 inches.
 
Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6
inches.
 
Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire: 3 to 5 inches.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
the southern Windward Islands this evening and tonight, over Islas 
Margarita and the adjacent islands Wednesday morning,  and over the 
ABC Islands by Wednesday evening.  Tropical storm conditions are 
possible in the watch area along the northeastern coast of Venezuela 
tonight.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 28 2022

108 
WTNT22 KNHC 281448
TCMAT2
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022022
1500 UTC TUE JUN 28 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ISLAS DE MARGARITA...COCHE AND CUBAGUA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BONAIRE.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
CURACAO.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF ARUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ARUBA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* ISLAS DE MARGARITA...COCHE AND CUBAGUA
* BONAIRE
* CURACAO
* ARUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES TO CUMANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA SHOULD MONITOR
THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.8N  57.5W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  20 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.8N  57.5W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.6N  56.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 10.5N  60.5W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 11.3N  64.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 11.7N  68.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.1N  72.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.2N  75.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  30SE   0SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.1N  78.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  30SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 12.0N  84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 12.5N  90.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.8N  57.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 28/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Jun 28 2022

000
WTNT42 KNHC 281449
TCDAT2
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
1100 AM AST Tue Jun 28 2022
 
The system continues to produce vigorous deep convection and also
exhibits some banding features.  However, reports from an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that there is no well-defined
center of circulation at this time.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system again this 
afternoon.
 
The system is expected to remain in a low-shear and moderately moist 
atmospheric environment for the next couple of days.  However, 
interaction with land and fast forward motion will likely limit 
intensification until the system reaches the southwestern Caribbean 
Sea later this week.  More significant strengthening, possibly into 
a hurricane, could occur over the latter area.

Although the center position is not precise, the initial motion 
estimate is kept the same, or 280/20 kt.  A strong mid-tropospheric 
ridge is likely to remain anchored to the north of the system this 
week.  Therefore a continued westward to west-northwestward motion 
is expected through the forecast period.  The official forecast 
track is mostly unchanged and remains close to the corrected 
dynamical model consensus.


KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Heavy rainfall is expected across the Windward Islands and
northeastern Venezuela tonight through Wednesday. Localized flash
flooding will be possible.
 
2.  Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over portions of the
southern Windward Islands tonight, over Islas Margarita Wednesday 
morning, and over the ABC Islands by Wednesday evening.  Tropical 
storm conditions are possible along the northeastern coast of 
Venezuela tonight and Wednesday evening.
 
3.  There is higher-than-normal uncertainty in the system's forecast 
intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea late 
Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts with 
land from tonight through Thursday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z  9.8N  57.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  29/0000Z 10.5N  60.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  29/1200Z 11.3N  64.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 36H  30/0000Z 11.7N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 12.1N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  01/0000Z 12.2N  75.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 12.1N  78.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z 12.0N  84.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
120H  03/1200Z 12.5N  90.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 28 2022

000
FONT12 KNHC 281449
PWSAT2
                                                                    
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022022               
1500 UTC TUE JUN 28 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   4(18)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)   5(27)
BLUEFIELDS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)
BLUEFIELDS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  26(35)   2(37)
SAN ANDRES     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)
SAN ANDRES     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
LIMON          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   1(15)
LIMON          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
COLON          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
PT GALLINAS    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)   4(27)   1(28)   X(28)
PT GALLINAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CURACAO        34  X   X( X)  25(25)  14(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
CURACAO        50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GRENADA        34  2   9(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 28   7(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
PORT OF SPAIN  34  3   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
JUANGRIEGO     34  X  15(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 28 Jun 2022 17:44:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 28 Jun 2022 15:24:09 GMT