000
ABNT20 KNHC 241737
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located over the central tropical Atlantic.
Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a surface trough of low pressure and
an upper-level trough. Further development, if any, is expected to
be slow to occur over the next few days while the system moves
slowly westward. By the middle of the week, upper-level winds
are forecast to become too strong for additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
A small area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
could form around mid-week while the system moves
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Blake
...PHILIPPE FORECAST TO BATTLE WIND SHEAR MUCH OF THIS WEEK... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 24 the center of Philippe was located near 16.2, -41.7 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2023000 WTNT32 KNHC 241439 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2023 ...PHILIPPE FORECAST TO BATTLE WIND SHEAR MUCH OF THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 41.7W ABOUT 1175 MI...1890 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 41.7 West. Philippe is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a motion towards the west or west-northwest is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little net change in strength is forecast during the next 72 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023000 WTNT22 KNHC 241439 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 41.7W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 41.7W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 41.2W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.5N 43.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.9N 45.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.4N 47.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 49.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.9N 51.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.0N 52.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 30SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 22.5N 54.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 24.0N 55.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 41.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2023000 WTNT42 KNHC 241442 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2023 Philippe is a challenging tropical cyclone to analyze this morning. On one hand, the overall satellite presentation has improved since yesterday, and a 0907Z SSMIS microwave pass shows a possible mid-level eye. Yet the 1-min GOES16 imagery reveals a weak low-level swirl southwest of the main convective blob, and ASCAT-B near 12Z showed a disorganized inner core with less wind than one might expect (albeit very contaminated with rain). Overall, intensity estimates have risen since the last advisory, so the initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, similar to the TAFB/SAB values, but this should be considered fairly uncertain. Little change in intensity is forecast with the storm during the next couple of days as increasing shear is forecast to otherwise counteract a conducive environment. There are a variety of solutions after that point, with some models showing a stronger Philippe after finding a lower-shear environment, while others suggesting that the storm succumbs to the shear from an upper-level trough. There are no easy answers here with moderate shear cases in high SST/moisture conditions well known to have higher errors due to an inherent lack of predictability. The new forecast splits the difference in the model guidance, lying near the consensus and the previous forecast, and we will just have to see if a trend emerges for the eventual intensity of Philippe. The long-term motion of the storm is westward or 280/10 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north of Philippe is forecast to gradually weaken and slide eastward in a day or two, allowing the tropical storm to move more west-northwestward and northwestward by the middle of the week. Uncertainty grows after that point, with the track seemingly dependent on the intensity. A stronger system would probably turn northward, like the GFS/HWRF/HMON models, while a weaker one, like the UKMET/ECMWF solutions, would take a left turn under the low-level subtropical ridge. For now, little change was made to the long-range forecast given all of the uncertainty. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 16.2N 41.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 16.5N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 16.9N 45.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 17.4N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 18.0N 49.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 18.9N 51.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 20.0N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 22.5N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 24.0N 55.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023000 FONT12 KNHC 241439 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2023 14:40:59 GMT
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Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2023 15:22:57 GMT
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