ABPZ20 KNHC 252306
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 25 2017
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on the
remnants of Pilar, located near the west coast of Mexico.
A broad area of low pressure located just south of southeastern
Mexico and Guatemala is producing only limited shower and
thunderstorm activity. Unfavorable upper-level winds and close
proximity to land are expected to limit development of this system
while it meanders near or just offshore of the coasts of
southeastern Mexico and Guatemala for the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
...PILAR DISSIPATES... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING STILL EXPECTED IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF NAYARIT, SINALOA, AND DURANGO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 the center of Pilar was located near 23.8, -107.1 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 25 mph.
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017
000 WTPZ33 KNHC 252034 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Remnants Of Pilar Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182017 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017 ...PILAR DISSIPATES... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING STILL EXPECTED IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF NAYARIT, SINALOA, AND DURANGO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 107.1W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the remnants of Pilar were located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 107.1 West. The remnants are moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over the western portions of the Mexican states of northern Nayarit, southern Sinaloa, and southwestern Durango through Tuesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Landsea
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017
000 WTPZ23 KNHC 252033 TCMEP3 REMNANTS OF PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182017 2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 107.1W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 107.1W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 107.0W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 107.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NSFHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 252034 TCDEP3 Remnants Of Pilar Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182017 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017 GOES-16 visible imagery along with ASCAT scatterometer data indicate that Pilar has degenerated into a trough of low pressure extending from the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula and the coast of western Mexico. This is the last advisory issued on Pilar. The highest winds remaining in association with Pilar's remnants are 20 kt, as observed by the scatterometer. Some deep convection remains in association with the remnants of Pilar along the coast of western Mexico and inland. The main hazard associated with the remnants of Pilar will be heavy rainfall, which could trigger life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over the states of northern Nayarit, the southern portion of Sinaloa, and the southwestern portion of Durango during the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 23.8N 107.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017
000 FOPZ13 KNHC 252034 PWSEP3 REMNANTS OF PILAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182017 2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 AT 2100Z THE REMNANTS OF PILAR WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KTS... 25 MPH...35 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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