000 WTPZ35 KNHC 240831 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018 200 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018 ...DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 115.6W ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 115.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Monday, followed by a westward motion on Tuesday that will continue through the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. A weakening trend should begin on Monday, and the cyclone will likely become a remnant low by the middle of next week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
000 WTPZ25 KNHC 240831 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052018 0900 UTC SUN JUN 24 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 115.6W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 115.6W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 115.5W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.4N 115.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.9N 116.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.0N 117.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.6N 119.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.3N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 20.2N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 19.7N 130.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 115.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240832 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018 200 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018 Although convective banding features have become less distinct since the previous advisory, a small mass of deep convection with cold cloud tops of -80C to -83C has developed over and to the south of the previously exposed low-level circulation center. Weak outflow is restricted to the southern semicircle due to modest northeasterly vertical wind shear. The intensity has been maintained at 30 kt based on a consensus satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB, SAB, UW-CIMSS ADT. The depression has continued to move northward and the motion estimate is now 355/09 kt. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly packed around the previous advisory track, so no significant changes were made. The various dynamical models remain in good agreement that the cyclone will move northward around the east side of a mid-/upper-level low for the next 24 hours or so, resulting in the system moving over cooler water and weakening. The more shallow cyclone is then expected to encounter the broad Pacific subtropical ridge to its north and be turned northwestward on Monday, followed by a westerly motion on Tuesday and beyond after becoming embedded in the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The official forecast track is just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus track models TVCE and HCCA. The SHIPS intensity model guidance is forecasting the vertical shear ahead of the depression to gradually decrease to 5-10 kt during the next 72 hours. However, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26C SSTs in about 24 hours or so, and also be moving into a drier and more stable environment by 36 h and beyond. The result should be only modest strengthening during the next 24 h, followed by steady weakening thereafter. The cyclone is expected to become a remnant low by Wednesday, and possibly dissipate by Thursday or Friday. However, a 120-h point was included in order to maintain continuity with the previous advisory. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is close to a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 15.1N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 16.4N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 17.9N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 19.0N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 19.6N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 20.3N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0600Z 20.2N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0600Z 19.7N 130.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
000 FOPZ15 KNHC 240831 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052018 0900 UTC SUN JUN 24 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 115W 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 9(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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