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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 252306
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 25 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on the
remnants of Pilar, located near the west coast of Mexico.

A broad area of low pressure located just south of southeastern
Mexico and Guatemala is producing only limited shower and
thunderstorm activity. Unfavorable upper-level winds and close
proximity to land are expected to limit development of this system
while it meanders near or just offshore of the coasts of
southeastern Mexico and Guatemala for the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Summary for Remnants of Pilar (EP3/EP182017)

...PILAR DISSIPATES... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING STILL EXPECTED IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF NAYARIT, SINALOA, AND DURANGO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 the center of Pilar was located near 23.8, -107.1 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 25 mph.

Remnants of Pilar Public Advisory Number 9

Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017


000
WTPZ33 KNHC 252034
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Pilar Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182017
300 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

...PILAR DISSIPATES...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING STILL EXPECTED IN THE
MEXICAN STATES OF NAYARIT, SINALOA, AND DURANGO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 107.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the remnants of Pilar were located near
latitude 23.8 North, longitude 107.1 West. The remnants are moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 6 inches with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches
over the western portions of the Mexican states of northern Nayarit,
southern Sinaloa, and southwestern Durango through Tuesday.  This
rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

Remnants of Pilar Forecast Advisory Number 9

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017


000
WTPZ23 KNHC 252033
TCMEP3

REMNANTS OF PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182017
2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 107.1W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  20 KT WITH GUSTS TO  30 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 107.1W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 107.0W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 107.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NSFHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA


Remnants of Pilar Forecast Discussion Number 9

Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 252034
TCDEP3

Remnants Of Pilar Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182017
300 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

GOES-16 visible imagery along with ASCAT scatterometer data
indicate that Pilar has degenerated into a trough of low pressure
extending from the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula and
the coast of western Mexico.  This is the last advisory issued on
Pilar.  The highest winds remaining in association with Pilar's
remnants are 20 kt, as observed by the scatterometer.

Some deep convection remains in association with the remnants of
Pilar along the coast of western Mexico and inland.  The main hazard
associated with the remnants of Pilar will be heavy rainfall, which
could trigger life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over the
states of northern Nayarit, the southern portion of Sinaloa, and the
southwestern portion of Durango during the next day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 23.8N 107.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...REMNANTS
 12H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea

Remnants of Pilar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017


000
FOPZ13 KNHC 252034
PWSEP3
                                                                    
REMNANTS OF PILAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182017               
2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE REMNANTS OF PILAR WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH
...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KTS... 
25 MPH...35 KM/H.                                                   
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
 
...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME...
AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED...
 
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LANDSEA                                                  

Remnants of Pilar Graphics

Remnants of Pilar 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 20:39:54 GMT

Remnants of Pilar 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 21:36:04 GMT