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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182338
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Octave, located over the southwestern portion of the eastern
Pacific basin.

An elongated area of disturbed weather is located near the
west-central coast of Mexico. A weak low pressure system is expected
to develop near the coast on Saturday and some slight development is
possible before the system moves inland and dissipates by late
Sunday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with
this disturbance could produce flash flooding and mudslides across
portions of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, especially in areas of
mountainous terrain, during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A small low pressure system has developed over the far southwestern
portion of the East Pacific basin. Although the low is currently
producing no organized shower or thunderstorm activity,
environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
development over the weekend, and some slow development is possible
while the system drifts westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Summary for Tropical Storm Octave (EP3/EP182019)

...OCTAVE EXPECTED TO BECOME REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 the center of Octave was located near 11.0, -126.6 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Octave Public Advisory Number 5

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 182032
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182019
200 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019

...OCTAVE EXPECTED TO BECOME REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 126.6W
ABOUT 1375 MI...2210 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 126.6 West.  Octave is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), but the storm is
expected to meander or make a slow clockwise loop during the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast during the
next day or two, and Octave could degenerate into a remnant low
tonight or on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Octave Forecast Advisory Number 5

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 182030
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182019
2100 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 126.6W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 20NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 126.6W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 126.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 11.6N 126.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 11.9N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 11.7N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 11.3N 125.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 11.9N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 12.9N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 126.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 

Tropical Storm Octave Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 182032
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182019
200 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Octave's deep convection dissipated earlier this morning, leaving a
well-defined swirl of low clouds in visible satellite imagery.
With the degradation of the cyclone's structure, recent ASCAT data
revealed that maximum winds have decreased to 35 kt.  A new small
burst of convection is going up to the west of the center, but it's
difficult to know if this convection will continue and if it will
meet the organizational requirements for a tropical cyclone.  The
new NHC forecast leaves open the possibility that Octave could
maintain tropical cyclone status for another 24 hours, but it's
probably at least equally likely that the storm could degenerate
into a remnant low tonight if convection doesn't increase
substantially.  Either way, dry air and increasing shear are
expected to cause Octave's winds to continue decreasing for the next
24 hours, with the remnant low maintaining 25-kt winds through the
end of the forecast period.

Octave's motion has been northward, or 360/4 kt.  This motion is
likely to be suppressed within the next 12-24 hours as a low-level
trough to the north drops southward, and Octave is expected to make
a tight clockwise loop during the 5-day forecast period.  The
updated NHC track forecast is a little east of the previous
forecast, moved in the direction of the multi-model consensus aids.
However, it should be noted that by day 5, there is a 700 n mi
spread between the easternmost HWRF model and the westernmost UKMET
model, suggesting that there is quite a bit of uncertainty on
exactly where Octave will end up.  Fortunately, it is not likely to
be a significant cyclone at that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 11.0N 126.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 11.6N 126.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 11.9N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/0600Z 11.7N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/1800Z 11.3N 125.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/1800Z 11.9N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/1800Z 12.9N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Octave Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 182032
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182019               
2100 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
10N 125W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   8(14)   2(16)   1(17)
10N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
10N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     

Tropical Storm Octave Graphics

Tropical Storm Octave 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2019 20:34:04 GMT

Tropical Storm Octave 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2019 21:31:19 GMT

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