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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162319
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 PM PST Sat Nov 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Raymond, located several hundred miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Depression
Twenty-One-E, located well south of the southern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E (EP1/EP212019)

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION NO STRONGER... As of 3:00 PM CST Sat Nov 16 the center of Twenty-one-E was located near 9.5, -101.0 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Public Advisory Number 3

Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 162031
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212019
300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION NO STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.5N 101.0W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 9.5 North, longitude 101.0
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h)
and a westward to west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower
forward speed is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast through early next week and
the depression could degenerate into a remnant low or dissipate at
any time during the next 72 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 162031
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212019
2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.5N 101.0W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.5N 101.0W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.4N 100.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z  9.6N 102.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 10.0N 104.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 10.3N 105.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 10.5N 106.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.5N 101.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
 
 

Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

253 
WTPZ41 KNHC 162032
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212019
300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

The depression has really come unglued over the past 6 hours. Deep
convection has decreased dramatically and the little thunderstorm
activity that remains is not well organized. Visible imagery reveals
that the circulation of the low is elongated from east to west with
no clear-cut center. An ASCAT-B overpass at 1604 UTC unfortunately
did not sample the entire system, however, it too showed little
indication of a well-defined center and max winds of only 25-30 kt.
Those winds appeared to be related more to an ongoing Tehuantepec
gap wind event than the depression itself. While these evidence
would suggest that the system no longer meets the criteria for a
tropical cyclone, it seems prudent to continue advisories for now,
just in case the system makes a comeback later today.

The depression continues to move westward, and a mid-level ridge
centered over Mexico should keep it or its remnants on a westward or
west-northwestward heading for the next few days. Aside from
accounting for a slight westward adjustment of the initial
position, the main change to the NHC forecast since the last
advisory is that it no longer calls for the depression to become a
tropical storm, and dissipation is now anticipated within 72 h. This
is in line with the latest intensity guidance. Given the cyclone's
current structure, it could become a remnant low or dissipate at any
time during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z  9.5N 101.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z  9.6N 102.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 10.0N 104.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 10.3N 105.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 10.5N 106.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019

000
FOPZ11 KNHC 162032
PWSEP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212019               
2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
10N 105W       34  X  12(12)  16(28)   4(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
10N 105W       50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
10N 105W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 

Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Graphics

Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2019 20:33:21 GMT

Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2019 21:31:01 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Raymond (EP5/EP202019)

...RAYMOND ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING... As of 2:00 PM MST Sat Nov 16 the center of Raymond was located near 16.5, -111.8 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Raymond Public Advisory Number 8

Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 162035
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202019
200 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

...RAYMOND ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 111.8W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Raymond.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 111.8 West. Raymond
has been moving little or drifting northward during the past few
hours. However, the cyclone should begin a northward track with
an increase in forward speed later tonight and Sunday. On the
forecast track, Raymond or its remnants are expected to move near
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday or
early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast and Raymond is expected to become a tropical
depression when it nears the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula late Sunday, and it should degenerate into a remnant low
on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja
California Sur with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. This
rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Advisory Number 8

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 162035
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202019
2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.8W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.8W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 111.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.2N 111.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.5N 111.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.5N 111.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 25.0N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 111.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 

Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 8

Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

494 
WTPZ45 KNHC 162036
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202019
200 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

The could pattern has deteriorated this afternoon, and the
circulation is still there, but becoming elongated. In fact, the
convection no longer shows a cyclonic curvature and it has the
appearance of a linear cloud band. Dvorak estimates also reflect
some weakening, and on this basis, the initial intensity has been
set at 40 kt.

The shear is forecast to markedly increase soon as a mid-level
trough or low develops just west of the Baja california peninsula.
This belligerent shear pattern calls for weakening, and Raymond
is forecast to become a tropical depression or even degenerate into
a remnant near low by time the cyclone reaches the southern portion
of the Baja California peninsula in about 36 hours. The system then
should become absorbed by the developing mid-to upper level trough.
The weakening is depicted by global models which clearly show the
vertical fracture of the cyclone with the mid-level center moving
northeastward over mainland Mexico and the weakening low-level
center moving north-northwestward just west of the Peninsula.

Raymond has been moving little or drifting northward during the past
several hours. However, most of the track guidance indicate that
Raymond should move northward with an increase in forward speed
embedded within the southerly flow ahead of the mid-level trough
west of the Baja California peninsula. The later portion of the
track forecast is highly uncertain given that the cyclone will be
very weak or probably dissipating.

Regardless of Raymond's status when it nears the Baja peninsula,
rainfall associated with the cyclone and the developing trough
will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja
California peninsula later this weekend.  These rains could cause
life-threatening flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 16.5N 111.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 18.2N 111.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 20.5N 111.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 22.5N 111.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 25.0N 112.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila


Tropical Storm Raymond Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 162035
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202019               
2100 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PUNTA EUGENIA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   2( 2)   9(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 110W       34  4  27(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34 53  17(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  2   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    

Tropical Storm Raymond Graphics

Tropical Storm Raymond 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2019 20:37:17 GMT

Tropical Storm Raymond 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2019 21:24:22 GMT

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