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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240541
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jun 23 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Five-E, located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is producing disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity over a broad area. Some development of
this system is possible during the next few days before it interacts
and possibly merges with a tropical wave approaching from the east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave located just west of Costa Rica and Nicaragua is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system by the
middle of the week while it moves westward, well south of the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Five-E are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Five-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Tropical Depression Five-E (EP5/EP052018)

...DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 the center of Five-E was located near 15.1, -115.6 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Five-E Public Advisory Number 2

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 240831
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018
200 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018

...DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 115.6W
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E
was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 115.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and
this general motion is forecast to continue today.  A turn toward
the northwest is expected on Monday, followed by a westward motion
on Tuesday that will continue through the middle of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and
the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today.
A weakening trend should begin on Monday, and the cyclone will
likely become a remnant low by the middle of next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Advisory Number 2

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 24 2018

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 240831
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052018
0900 UTC SUN JUN 24 2018
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 115.6W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 115.6W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 115.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.4N 115.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.9N 116.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.0N 117.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.6N 119.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.3N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 20.2N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 19.7N 130.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 115.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 

Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 240832
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018
200 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Although convective banding features have become less distinct since
the previous advisory, a small mass of deep convection with cold
cloud tops of -80C to -83C has developed over and to the south of
the previously exposed low-level circulation center. Weak outflow is
restricted to the southern semicircle due to modest northeasterly
vertical wind shear. The intensity has been maintained at 30 kt
based on a consensus satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from
TAFB, SAB, UW-CIMSS ADT.

The depression has continued to move northward and the motion
estimate is now 355/09 kt. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly
packed around the previous advisory track, so no significant changes
were made. The various dynamical models remain in good agreement
that the cyclone will move northward around the east side of a
mid-/upper-level low for the next 24 hours or so, resulting in the
system moving over cooler water and weakening.  The more shallow
cyclone is then expected to encounter the broad Pacific subtropical
ridge to its north and be turned northwestward on Monday, followed
by a westerly motion on Tuesday and beyond after becoming embedded
in the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The official forecast
track is just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies
close to the consensus track models TVCE and HCCA.

The SHIPS intensity model guidance is forecasting the vertical shear
ahead of the depression to gradually decrease to 5-10 kt during the
next 72 hours. However, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26C SSTs
in about 24 hours or so, and also be moving into a drier and more
stable environment by 36 h and beyond. The result should be only
modest strengthening during the next 24 h, followed by steady
weakening thereafter. The cyclone is expected to become a remnant
low by Wednesday, and possibly dissipate by Thursday or Friday.
However, a 120-h point was included in order to maintain continuity
with the previous advisory. The new NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory, and is close to a blend of the
HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 15.1N 115.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 16.4N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 17.9N 116.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 19.0N 117.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 19.6N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 20.3N 122.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/0600Z 20.2N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/0600Z 19.7N 130.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Depression Five-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 24 2018

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 240831
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052018               
0900 UTC SUN JUN 24 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA CLARION   34  1   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
15N 115W       34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 115W       34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 120W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   9(12)   9(21)   X(21)   X(21)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

Tropical Depression Five-E Graphics

Tropical Depression Five-E 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Jun 2018 08:34:16 GMT

Tropical Depression Five-E 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Jun 2018 08:34:16 GMT

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