000 WTPZ33 KNHC 182032 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 ...OCTAVE EXPECTED TO BECOME REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.0N 126.6W ABOUT 1375 MI...2210 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 126.6 West. Octave is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), but the storm is expected to meander or make a slow clockwise loop during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or two, and Octave could degenerate into a remnant low tonight or on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
000 WTPZ23 KNHC 182030 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019 2100 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 126.6W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 20NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 126.6W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 126.6W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 11.6N 126.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 11.9N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 11.7N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 11.3N 125.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 11.9N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 12.9N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 126.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 182032 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Octave's deep convection dissipated earlier this morning, leaving a well-defined swirl of low clouds in visible satellite imagery. With the degradation of the cyclone's structure, recent ASCAT data revealed that maximum winds have decreased to 35 kt. A new small burst of convection is going up to the west of the center, but it's difficult to know if this convection will continue and if it will meet the organizational requirements for a tropical cyclone. The new NHC forecast leaves open the possibility that Octave could maintain tropical cyclone status for another 24 hours, but it's probably at least equally likely that the storm could degenerate into a remnant low tonight if convection doesn't increase substantially. Either way, dry air and increasing shear are expected to cause Octave's winds to continue decreasing for the next 24 hours, with the remnant low maintaining 25-kt winds through the end of the forecast period. Octave's motion has been northward, or 360/4 kt. This motion is likely to be suppressed within the next 12-24 hours as a low-level trough to the north drops southward, and Octave is expected to make a tight clockwise loop during the 5-day forecast period. The updated NHC track forecast is a little east of the previous forecast, moved in the direction of the multi-model consensus aids. However, it should be noted that by day 5, there is a 700 n mi spread between the easternmost HWRF model and the westernmost UKMET model, suggesting that there is quite a bit of uncertainty on exactly where Octave will end up. Fortunately, it is not likely to be a significant cyclone at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 11.0N 126.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 11.6N 126.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 11.9N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0600Z 11.7N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1800Z 11.3N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1800Z 11.9N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1800Z 12.9N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
000 FOPZ13 KNHC 182032 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019 2100 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 2(16) 1(17) 10N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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