000 WTPZ34 KNHC 080234 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Howard Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022 ...HOWARD BRINGS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO SOCORRO ISLAND AS IT HEADS NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 111.7W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Howard was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 111.7 West. Howard is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, followed by weakening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). An automated observing station on Socorro Island recently measured a sustained wind of 41 MPH (66 KM/H) and a gust to 56 MPH (90 KM/H). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
000 WTPZ24 KNHC 080233 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022 0300 UTC MON AUG 08 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.7W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.7W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.3W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.6N 112.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.2N 114.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.4N 116.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.3N 118.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.0N 119.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.5N 121.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.5N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 24.0N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 111.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
014 WTPZ44 KNHC 080235 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022 The overall appearance of Howard has improved slightly over the past several hours, with the center of the cyclone tucked underneath the southern edge of a mass of intense deep convection. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT are all in agreement that the system remains a 35-kt tropical storm. However, the recent trend in organization suggests some strengthening may be soon underway. An automated weather station on Socorro Island this evening measured peak sustained wind speeds of 36 kt and a gust to 49 kt, while the center of Howard's circulation passed about 50 n mi to the south-southwest of that location. Howard continues its northwestern heading, or 315/11 kt to the southwest of a mid-level ridge. This motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. After 48 h, the cyclone is expected to turn toward the west as the weakening system becomes steered by the large-scale low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and is near the tightly clustered track guidance. The storm has about 36-48 h to take advantage of warm SSTs, a moist atmospheric environment, and weak vertical wind shear. After that time the forecast path of the cyclone takes it over progressively cooler waters and into a much drier and more stable airmass. The NHC forecast calls for some modest strengthening through 36 h, then steady weakening commencing after that time. The forecast also indicates that the system will degenerate into a remnant low by 96h. However, the both the CMC and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggest that this could occur as soon as 60 h from now. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the various multi-model consensus solutions, and lower than the HWRF and GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 18.4N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 19.6N 112.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 21.2N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 22.4N 116.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 23.3N 118.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 24.0N 119.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 24.5N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 24.5N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0000Z 24.0N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
000 FOPZ14 KNHC 080234 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022 0300 UTC MON AUG 08 2022 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 64 X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) 20N 115W 34 X 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 13(17) 1(18) X(18) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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