315 WTPZ33 KNHC 281447 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Celia Advisory Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 800 AM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022 ...CELIA SLOWLY FADING AWAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 120.5W ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Celia was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 120.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). Celia is expected to continue moving west-northwestward at a slightly slower speed during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Celia is forecast to weaken and become a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula through the day today. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
822 WTPZ23 KNHC 281447 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC TUE JUN 28 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 120.5W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 120.5W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 120.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.0N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.7N 123.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.2N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.6N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 120.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
109 WTPZ43 KNHC 281448 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 800 AM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022 The slow but steady decay of Celia has continued this morning. The coldest cloud tops near the center of Celia have warmed to around -40 deg C, a sign that it is no longer producing organized deep convection. The depression is moving over water colder than 22 deg C, so further decay is inevitable. It is likely that Celia will become a post-tropical remnant low later today. The estimated intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. Weakening is likely during the next few days while Celia is steered west-northwestward by a ridge extending southwest from the southwestern United States. Various dynamical models indicate that Celia will dissipate into a trough in about 2-3 days. No changes of note were made to the NHC forecast, which is near the multi-model consensus for both track and intensity. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 22.3N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 23.0N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 29/1200Z 23.7N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/0000Z 24.2N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1200Z 24.6N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
088 FOPZ13 KNHC 281447 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC TUE JUN 28 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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