East Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracking

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072326
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Aug 7 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Howard, located a few hundred miles south of
the southern tip of Baja California.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is
associated with a broad trough of low pressure located more than
1000 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Some gradual
development of this system is possible through the middle part of
this week while it moves generally westward into the central
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

...HOWARD BRINGS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO SOCORRO ISLAND AS IT HEADS NORTHWESTWARD... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 the center of Howard was located near 18.4, -111.7 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 080234
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Howard Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
900 PM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022
 
...HOWARD BRINGS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO SOCORRO ISLAND AS
IT HEADS NORTHWESTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 111.7W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Howard was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 111.7 West. Howard is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so,
followed by weakening.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

An automated observing station on Socorro Island recently measured a
sustained wind of 41 MPH (66 KM/H) and a gust to 56 MPH (90 KM/H).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 08 2022

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 080233
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092022
0300 UTC MON AUG 08 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.7W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.7W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.6N 112.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.2N 114.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.4N 116.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.3N 118.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.0N 119.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.5N 121.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.5N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 24.0N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 111.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LATTO
 
 

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022

014 
WTPZ44 KNHC 080235
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
900 PM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022
 
The overall appearance of Howard has improved slightly over the past 
several hours, with the center of the cyclone tucked underneath the 
southern edge of a mass of intense deep convection.  The latest 
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT are 
all in agreement that the system remains a 35-kt tropical storm. 
However, the recent trend in organization suggests some 
strengthening may be soon underway.  An automated weather station on 
Socorro Island this evening measured peak sustained wind speeds of 
36 kt and a gust to 49 kt, while the center of Howard's circulation 
passed about 50 n mi to the south-southwest of that location.
 
Howard continues its northwestern heading, or 315/11 kt to the
southwest of a mid-level ridge. This motion is expected to continue
over the next couple of days.  After 48 h, the cyclone is expected
to turn toward the west as the weakening system becomes steered
by the large-scale low-level flow.  The latest NHC track forecast
is little changed from the previous one and is near the tightly
clustered track guidance.
 
The storm has about 36-48 h to take advantage of warm SSTs, a moist 
atmospheric environment, and weak vertical wind shear.  After that 
time the forecast path of the cyclone takes it over progressively 
cooler waters and into a much drier and more stable airmass.  The 
NHC forecast calls for some modest strengthening through 36 h, then 
steady weakening commencing after that time.  The forecast also 
indicates that the system will degenerate into a remnant low by 96h. 
However, the both the CMC and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery 
suggest that this could occur as soon as 60 h from now.  The NHC 
intensity forecast is slightly higher than the various multi-model 
consensus solutions, and lower than the HWRF and GFS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 18.4N 111.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 19.6N 112.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 21.2N 114.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 22.4N 116.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 23.3N 118.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  10/1200Z 24.0N 119.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 24.5N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 24.5N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/0000Z 24.0N 126.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 08 2022

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 080234
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092022               
0300 UTC MON AUG 08 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA SOCORRO   34 64   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
 
20N 115W       34  X   6( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
25N 115W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  13(17)   1(18)   X(18)
25N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LATTO                                                    

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 08 Aug 2022 02:36:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 08 Aug 2022 03:22:33 GMT