East Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracking

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281808
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Celia, located several hundred miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small low pressure
system centered a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern
Mexico are beginning to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional gradual
development during the next couple of days, and a tropical
depression could form while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...CELIA SLOWLY FADING AWAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Jun 28 the center of Celia was located near 22.3, -120.5 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022

315 
WTPZ33 KNHC 281447
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Celia Advisory Number  48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
800 AM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022
 
...CELIA SLOWLY FADING AWAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 120.5W
ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Celia
was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 120.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 
km/h). Celia is expected to continue moving west-northwestward at a 
slightly slower speed during the next couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Celia is forecast to weaken and become a remnant low later today.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells will continue to affect portions of the southern Baja
California peninsula through the day today.  These conditions could
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
 

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 28 2022

822 
WTPZ23 KNHC 281447
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032022
1500 UTC TUE JUN 28 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 120.5W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 120.5W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 120.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.0N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.7N 123.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.2N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.6N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 120.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
 
 

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022

109 
WTPZ43 KNHC 281448
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number  48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
800 AM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022
 
The slow but steady decay of Celia has continued this morning. The 
coldest cloud tops near the center of Celia have warmed to around 
-40 deg C, a sign that it is no longer producing organized deep 
convection. The depression is moving over water colder than 22 deg 
C, so further decay is inevitable. It is likely that Celia will 
become a post-tropical remnant low later today.
 
The estimated intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. Weakening 
is likely during the next few days while Celia is steered 
west-northwestward by a ridge extending southwest from the 
southwestern United States. Various dynamical models indicate that 
Celia will dissipate into a trough in about 2-3 days. No changes of 
note were made to the NHC forecast, which is near the multi-model 
consensus for both track and intensity.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 22.3N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 23.0N 121.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  29/1200Z 23.7N 123.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/0000Z 24.2N 125.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/1200Z 24.6N 126.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
 

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 28 2022

088 
FOPZ13 KNHC 281447
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  48       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032022               
1500 UTC TUE JUN 28 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
25N 125W       34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY                                              

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 28 Jun 2022 14:49:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 28 Jun 2022 15:31:07 GMT