Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Tracking

ABPW10
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Tropical Cyclone IALY Tracking


1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IALY) WARNING NR 012A CORRECTED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220000Z --- NEAR 3.4S 41.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 3.4S 41.9E

ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/211800Z-
221800ZMAY2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211351ZMAY2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.5N 
81.0E, APPROXIMATELY 132 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY BROAD CIRCULATION AREA 
OFFSHORE OF CHENNAI, INDIA WITH SPOTTY CONVECTION. A MID-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED DISPLACED 250 TO 300 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE 
CIRCULATION, INDICATING A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM. A 211523Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 
A LARGE ELLIPTICAL AREA OF TURNING WITH AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, 
CONSISTING OF LIGHT EASTERLIES TO THE NORTH AND A MONSOONAL WESTERLY WIND 
BURST SOUTH OF SRI LANKA WITH 25-30 KT WINDS THAT ARE NOT DIRECTLY 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WEAK (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99B WILL GET USHERED EASTWARD BY THE WESTERLY WIND 
BURST AND THEN HOOK NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF BENGAL OVER THE 
NEXT 72 HOURS, GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING INTO A MONSOON DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 21MAY24 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IALY) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
4.7S 42.2E, APPROXIMATELY 214 NM NORTHEAST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 211500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE:
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