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Last accessed: Mon 3 Oct 2022 18:57 GMT

Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Tracking

ABPW10
Graphic provided by Joint Typhoon Warning Center
ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/031800Z-
041800ZOCT2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.8S 89.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6S 89.3E, APPROXIMATELY 534 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) AND A 031301Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 
WIDESPREAD DISORGANIZED CONVECTION.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 
MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH FAIR POLEWARD AND 
WESTWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), 
AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 
THAT 92S, A SUMATRA LOW, IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER WESTWARD WHILE 
CONSOLIDATING AND DEEPENING OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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