Tropical Cyclone MIDHILI (07B)

WTIO31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (MIDHILI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (MIDHILI) WARNING NR 004    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171200Z --- NEAR 23.2N 91.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.2N 91.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 24.9N 92.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 91.5E.
17NOV23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (MIDHILI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 63
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 21
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, IRREGULAR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) OVER LAND TO THE NORTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. 
THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL AROUND THE 0700Z AND HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE 
RAPIDLY INLAND ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STEERING RIDGE. SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS FROM HATIA PEAKED AT 0900Z AT 51 KNOTS, LIKELY A GUST 
READING, BUT ARE STILL SUSTAINED AT 25 KNOTS AT 1200Z, SUPPORTING THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND. NOW 
THAT THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INLAND, FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL RAPIDLY 
ERODE THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX, LEADING TO RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION 
OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN BANGLADESH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR 
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171200Z IS 1004 MB.//
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WDIO31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG)  
WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.8N 80.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 683 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
AS DEPICTED IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
RADAR IMAGERY, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08B HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE 
WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A FORMATIVE RAGGED EYE. 
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. A 
041226Z SSMIS 37 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A CYAN 
RING SURROUNDING A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE PGTW 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS INCREASED TO T4.0 (65 KNOTS). THE KNES 
FINAL-T ESTIMATE IS CURRENTLY AT T4.0 AS WELL (CURRENT INTENSITY IS 
AT 4.5 (77 KNOTS)). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY LOWER 
THAN 65 KNOTS BASED ON THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
RANGING FROM 51 KNOTS TO 67 KNOTS.   

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 56 KTS AT 041030Z
   CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 041300Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 55 KTS AT 041300Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 55 KTS AT 041300Z
   CIMSS DMINT: 67 KTS AT 041229Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08B IS FORECAST TO TRACK 
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR 
THROUGH TAU 48. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH A PEAK 
OF 65 KNOTS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, TC 08B WILL 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SKIRTS THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA WITH 
LANDFALL EXPECTED NEAR TAU 24. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL 
RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS INLAND AND RECURVES 
NORTHEASTWARD, INTERACTING WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND 
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE REMNANTS COULD POSSIBLY TRACK 
OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL AFTER DAY 4 BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO 
REGENERATE DUE TO UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL 
WESTERLIES.       

MODEL DISCUSSION: BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. THERE IS CURRENTLY A 35 NM CROSS-
TRACK SPREAD IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 24. AFTER TAU 
24, GUIDANCE DIVERGES SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. 
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK 
FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY RELIABLE 
INTENSITY GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC MESOSCALE MODEL 
GUIDANCE.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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