Tropical Cyclone CHENESO (08S)

WTXS31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 017    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   300000Z --- NEAR 32.8S 51.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 32.8S 51.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 36.5S 57.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 35 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z --- 41.7S 63.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 33.7S 53.1E. 30JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S 
(CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 881 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, 
HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF A 
RELATIVELY SMALL MASS OF FLARING CONVECTION. TC CHENESO HAS SUCCUMBED 
TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR FROM THE WEST AND HAS LOST ALL SIGNS OF 
BEING A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN 
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS IS NOW THE DOMINANT 
STEERING FEATURE AS TC CHENESO WILL BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 
12. IN ADDITION, BY TAU 12, TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS NOTED IN THE 
29/18Z GFS 1000-500MB THICKNESS ANALYSIS. A PARTIAL 291917Z ASCAT-C 
PASS SHOWS 40 KNOTS OF WIND WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED 45 KNOT WIND 
BARBS IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WITH LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS THE 
ASSESSED LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY 
COOLER (24-25 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS 
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED OFF THE AFOREMENTIONED EIR IMAGERY, 
AS WELL AS MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS 
SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED OFF THE ASCAT-C PASS. NUMERICAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE TO AN 
82 NM SPREAD AT TAU 12. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS SET WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED OFF ALL AGREEABLE DATA. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST 
IS SET WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO SPORADIC MODEL BEHAVIOR IN 
CONSENSUS, MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE MODELS DISAGREEING WITH THE TIMING 
OF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. WITH THAT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
SLIGHTLY INCREASE TO 45 KNOTS AS IT TRANSITIONS TO EXTRATROPICAL AT 
TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z
IS 22 FEET.//
NNNN

WDXS31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO)   
WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 29.9S 47.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 610 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED,
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH RAPIDLY-ERODING DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI. A 291307Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS EXTENSIVE DRY
AIR PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 290601Z METOP-B 
ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY, AND RECENT SMAP DATA. DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION, 
DVORAK SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AND ADT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE 
UNREALISTICALLY LOW AND ARE NOT INCORPORATED INTO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 66 KTS AT 290723Z
   CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 291200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 24-25 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S HAS COMMENCED
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH A
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. TC 08S WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY COMPLETE ETT, GAINING
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE JET NEAR TAU 24. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH A 73NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. RELIABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE TO
STORM-FORCE WINDS AFTER TRANSITIONING TO A COLD-CORE EXTRA-TROPICAL
LOW WHILE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

WTXS51 PGTW 300300    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 08S SIO 230130010938
2023013000 08S CHENESO    017  01 130 21 SATL 030
T000 328S 0517E 040 R034 135 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 110 NW QD 
T012 365S 0573E 040 R034 230 NE QD 140 SE QD 200 SW QD 220 NW QD 
T024 417S 0633E 045 R034 300 NE QD 180 SE QD 190 SW QD 260 NW QD 
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 017    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 017    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   300000Z --- NEAR 32.8S 51.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 32.8S 51.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 36.5S 57.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 35 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z --- 41.7S 63.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 33.7S 53.1E.
30JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
881 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z
IS 22 FEET.
//
0823011306  81S 812E  20
0823011312  78S 811E  25
0823011318  76S 808E  25
0823011400  75S 806E  30
0823011406  75S 803E  25
0823011412  77S 802E  25
0823011418  80S 801E  25
0823011500  84S 800E  25
0823011506  93S 797E  25
0823011512 103S 791E  20
0823011518 111S 777E  20
0823011600 118S 759E  20
0823011606 120S 734E  20
0823011612 120S 700E  20
0823011618 121S 673E  25
0823011700 124S 645E  25
0823011706 127S 621E  30
0823011712 135S 600E  30
0823011718 141S 580E  35
0823011800 141S 562E  40
0823011806 138S 543E  45
0823011812 136S 526E  50
0823011812 136S 526E  50
0823011818 136S 517E  55
0823011818 136S 517E  55
0823011900 140S 509E  60
0823011900 140S 509E  60
0823011906 147S 504E  40
0823011912 153S 496E  35
0823011918 159S 488E  35
0823012000 163S 479E  30
0823012006 164S 474E  30
0823012012 166S 467E  25
0823012018 172S 464E  25
0823012100 175S 462E  20
0823012106 182S 462E  20
0823012112 187S 457E  20
0823012118 189S 453E  20
0823012200 190S 444E  25
0823012206 193S 437E  25
0823012212 196S 442E  25
0823012218 200S 445E  25
0823012222 205S 448E  25
0823012300 206S 447E  25
0823012306 205S 444E  25
0823012312 205S 438E  25
0823012318 205S 432E  30
0823012400 201S 427E  35
0823012406 199S 428E  40
0823012412 200S 429E  60
0823012412 200S 429E  60
0823012418 200S 430E  65
0823012418 200S 430E  65
0823012418 200S 430E  65
0823012500 201S 430E  70
0823012500 201S 430E  70
0823012500 201S 430E  70
0823012506 200S 429E  70
0823012506 200S 429E  70
0823012506 200S 429E  70
0823012512 199S 429E  70
0823012512 199S 429E  70
0823012512 199S 429E  70
0823012518 195S 432E  70
0823012518 195S 432E  70
0823012518 195S 432E  70
0823012600 196S 432E  70
0823012600 196S 432E  70
0823012600 196S 432E  70
0823012606 198S 429E  65
0823012606 198S 429E  65
0823012606 198S 429E  65
0823012612 201S 428E  60
0823012612 201S 428E  60
0823012618 206S 423E  55
0823012618 206S 423E  55
0823012700 209S 421E  50
0823012700 209S 421E  50
0823012706 217S 420E  50
0823012706 217S 420E  50
0823012712 226S 417E  50
0823012712 226S 417E  50
0823012718 234S 415E  60
0823012718 234S 415E  60
0823012800 241S 413E  80
0823012800 241S 413E  80
0823012800 241S 413E  80
0823012803 245S 413E  85
0823012803 245S 413E  85
0823012803 245S 413E  85
0823012806 249S 413E  80
0823012806 249S 413E  80
0823012806 249S 413E  80
0823012812 257S 415E  75
0823012812 257S 415E  75
0823012812 257S 415E  75
0823012818 269S 425E  70
0823012818 269S 425E  70
0823012818 269S 425E  70
0823012900 277S 438E  60
0823012900 277S 438E  60
0823012906 288S 451E  55
0823012906 288S 451E  55
0823012912 299S 476E  50
0823012912 299S 476E  50
0823012918 314S 498E  50
0823013000 328S 517E  40
NNNN