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Last accessed: Wed 7 Jun 2023 13:33 GMT

Tropical Cyclone DINGANI (13S)

Tropical Cyclone DINGANI Forecast Graphic
Tropical Cyclone DINGANI Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Cyclone DINGANI Storm-Centered Infrared Tropical Cyclone DINGANI Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared Tropical Cyclone DINGANI Storm-Centered Visible

Tropical Cyclone DINGANI Warning Text (JTWC)

WTXS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (ILSA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (ILSA) WARNING NR 021    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131800Z --- NEAR 20.5S 119.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 119.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 21.9S 123.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 22.8S 127.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 22.8S 133.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 21.1S 136.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 17.8S 138.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 120.7E.
13APR23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (ILSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 341 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD 
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM BROOME SHOW THE
SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL AND IS ACCELERATING INLAND. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A SHARPLY-OUTLINED
14-NM EYE IN BOTH ANIMATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS
BASED ON CIMSS AUTOMATED FIXES DMN AND OPEN-AIIR AND CONSISTENT
WITH THE RATE OF DEGRADATION AFTER LANDFALL. TC ILSA WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK FURTHER INLAND OVER NORTH CENTRAL AUSTRALIA AND RAPIDLY
DECAY DUE TO HIGH VWS AND LAND INTERACTION, AND DISSIPATE BY TAU
48. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON 
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR 
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

Tropical Cyclone DINGANI Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)

WDXS31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (ILSA)       
WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.5S 119.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 130 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 327 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 50 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S PEAKED IN INTENSITY AROUND 130900Z-131200Z 
NEAR 130 KNOTS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BEDOUT ISLAND INDICATED
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS (10-MINUTE AVERAGE) OF 121 KNOTS
(129-130 KNOTS CONVERTED TO 1-MINUTE AVERAGE) AT 131320Z WITH
MAXIMUM GUSTS OF 156 KNOTS (167 KNOTS CONVERTED TO 1-MINUTE
AVERAGE). OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS, ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND WITH THE EYE
BECOMING MORE RAGGED AND CLOUD FILLED. A 130909Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DECAYING SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE, HOWEVER, ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM PORT HEDLAND
CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INTACT, SYMMETRIC EYEWALL. BASED ON THE LATEST 
RADAR IMAGERY, THE CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT TWO 
HOURS BETWEEN DE GREY AND PARDOO STATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS 
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 130 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BEDOUT 
ISLAND.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   APRF: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 117 KTS AT 130909Z
   CIMSS ADT: 107 KTS AT 131130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: FRICTIONAL EFFECTS

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: AFTER PASSING JUST EAST OF BEDOUT ISLAND, TC
18S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 03 (131500Z).
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEGRADE AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE COAST AND TRACKS INLAND WITH STEADY WEAKENING
EXPECTED. AFTER TAU 06, TC 18S WILL RECURVE SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD
TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
AND EVENTUALLY ACCELERATES WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. RAPID 
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITH DISSIPATION BY TAU 36 OVER CENTRAL 
AUSTRALIA.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT 
THROUGH TAU 24 WITH AN 22NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 12 AND A 43NM 
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, GUIDANCE DIVERGES 
GRADUALLY WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRACK 
WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER LAND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

Tropical Cyclone DINGANI JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)

WTXS51 PGTW 132100    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 18S SIO 230413190220
2023041318 18S ILSA       021  01 145 13 SATL RADR SYNP 010
T000 205S 1199E 115 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD 
T012 219S 1231E 070 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD 
T024 228S 1276E 045 R034 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD 
T036 228S 1331E 035 
T048 211S 1369E 030 
T072 178S 1386E 030 
AMP
    036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (ILSA) WARNING NR 021    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (ILSA) WARNING NR 021    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131800Z --- NEAR 20.5S 119.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 119.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 21.9S 123.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 22.8S 127.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 22.8S 133.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 21.1S 136.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 17.8S 138.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 120.7E.
13APR23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (ILSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 341 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD 
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM BROOME SHOW THE
SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL AND IS ACCELERATING INLAND. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A SHARPLY-OUTLINED
14-NM EYE IN BOTH ANIMATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS
BASED ON CIMSS AUTOMATED FIXES DMN AND OPEN-AIIR AND CONSISTENT
WITH THE RATE OF DEGRADATION AFTER LANDFALL. TC ILSA WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK FURTHER INLAND OVER NORTH CENTRAL AUSTRALIA AND RAPIDLY
DECAY DUE TO HIGH VWS AND LAND INTERACTION, AND DISSIPATE BY TAU
48. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON 
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR 
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
1823040600  76S1327E  20
1823040606  81S1323E  20
1823040612  84S1320E  20
1823040618  87S1313E  25
1823040700  88S1307E  25
1823040706  90S1306E  25
1823040712  91S1305E  30
1823040718  94S1301E  30
1823040800  97S1297E  30
1823040806  99S1292E  30
1823040812 105S1287E  30
1823040818 113S1282E  35
1823040900 119S1272E  40
1823040906 123S1261E  40
1823040912 126S1253E  40
1823040918 127S1244E  40
1823041000 128S1236E  45
1823041006 130S1231E  45
1823041012 133S1227E  45
1823041018 136S1223E  50
1823041018 136S1223E  50
1823041100 139S1220E  50
1823041100 139S1220E  50
1823041106 145S1215E  55
1823041106 145S1215E  55
1823041112 153S1209E  75
1823041112 153S1209E  75
1823041112 153S1209E  75
1823041118 155S1204E  80
1823041118 155S1204E  80
1823041118 155S1204E  80
1823041200 157S1199E  80
1823041200 157S1199E  80
1823041200 157S1199E  80
1823041206 160S1197E  90
1823041206 160S1197E  90
1823041206 160S1197E  90
1823041212 165S1195E 100
1823041212 165S1195E 100
1823041212 165S1195E 100
1823041218 171S1193E 105
1823041218 171S1193E 105
1823041218 171S1193E 105
1823041300 178S1190E 115
1823041300 178S1190E 115
1823041300 178S1190E 115
1823041306 187S1187E 130
1823041306 187S1187E 130
1823041306 187S1187E 130
1823041312 195S1191E 130
1823041312 195S1191E 130
1823041312 195S1191E 130
1823041318 205S1199E 115
1823041318 205S1199E 115
1823041318 205S1199E 115
NNNN

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations

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