Tropical Cyclone CHENESO Warning Text (JTWC)
WTXS31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 32.8S 51.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.8S 51.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 36.5S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 41.7S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 33.7S 53.1E. 30JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S
(CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 881 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND,
HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF A
RELATIVELY SMALL MASS OF FLARING CONVECTION. TC CHENESO HAS SUCCUMBED
TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR FROM THE WEST AND HAS LOST ALL SIGNS OF
BEING A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS IS NOW THE DOMINANT
STEERING FEATURE AS TC CHENESO WILL BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU
12. IN ADDITION, BY TAU 12, TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS NOTED IN THE
29/18Z GFS 1000-500MB THICKNESS ANALYSIS. A PARTIAL 291917Z ASCAT-C
PASS SHOWS 40 KNOTS OF WIND WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED 45 KNOT WIND
BARBS IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WITH LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS THE
ASSESSED LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
COOLER (24-25 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED OFF THE AFOREMENTIONED EIR IMAGERY,
AS WELL AS MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED OFF THE ASCAT-C PASS. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE TO AN
82 NM SPREAD AT TAU 12. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS SET WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED OFF ALL AGREEABLE DATA. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SET WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO SPORADIC MODEL BEHAVIOR IN
CONSENSUS, MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE MODELS DISAGREEING WITH THE TIMING
OF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. WITH THAT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
SLIGHTLY INCREASE TO 45 KNOTS AS IT TRANSITIONS TO EXTRATROPICAL AT
TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z
IS 22 FEET.//
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone CHENESO Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDXS31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO)
WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 29.9S 47.6E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 610 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED,
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH RAPIDLY-ERODING DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI. A 291307Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS EXTENSIVE DRY
AIR PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 290601Z METOP-B
ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY, AND RECENT SMAP DATA. DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION,
DVORAK SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AND ADT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE
UNREALISTICALLY LOW AND ARE NOT INCORPORATED INTO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 66 KTS AT 290723Z
CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 291200Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 20-25 KTS
SST: 24-25 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S HAS COMMENCED
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH A
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. TC 08S WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY COMPLETE ETT, GAINING
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE JET NEAR TAU 24.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH A 73NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. RELIABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE TO
STORM-FORCE WINDS AFTER TRANSITIONING TO A COLD-CORE EXTRA-TROPICAL
LOW WHILE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
Tropical Cyclone CHENESO JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTXS51 PGTW 300300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 230130010938
2023013000 08S CHENESO 017 01 130 21 SATL 030
T000 328S 0517E 040 R034 135 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 365S 0573E 040 R034 230 NE QD 140 SE QD 200 SW QD 220 NW QD
T024 417S 0633E 045 R034 300 NE QD 180 SE QD 190 SW QD 260 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 32.8S 51.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.8S 51.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 36.5S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 41.7S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 33.7S 53.1E.
30JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
881 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z
IS 22 FEET.
//
0823011306 81S 812E 20
0823011312 78S 811E 25
0823011318 76S 808E 25
0823011400 75S 806E 30
0823011406 75S 803E 25
0823011412 77S 802E 25
0823011418 80S 801E 25
0823011500 84S 800E 25
0823011506 93S 797E 25
0823011512 103S 791E 20
0823011518 111S 777E 20
0823011600 118S 759E 20
0823011606 120S 734E 20
0823011612 120S 700E 20
0823011618 121S 673E 25
0823011700 124S 645E 25
0823011706 127S 621E 30
0823011712 135S 600E 30
0823011718 141S 580E 35
0823011800 141S 562E 40
0823011806 138S 543E 45
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011812 136S 526E 50
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011818 136S 517E 55
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011900 140S 509E 60
0823011906 147S 504E 40
0823011912 153S 496E 35
0823011918 159S 488E 35
0823012000 163S 479E 30
0823012006 164S 474E 30
0823012012 166S 467E 25
0823012018 172S 464E 25
0823012100 175S 462E 20
0823012106 182S 462E 20
0823012112 187S 457E 20
0823012118 189S 453E 20
0823012200 190S 444E 25
0823012206 193S 437E 25
0823012212 196S 442E 25
0823012218 200S 445E 25
0823012222 205S 448E 25
0823012300 206S 447E 25
0823012306 205S 444E 25
0823012312 205S 438E 25
0823012318 205S 432E 30
0823012400 201S 427E 35
0823012406 199S 428E 40
0823012412 200S 429E 60
0823012412 200S 429E 60
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012418 200S 430E 65
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012500 201S 430E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012506 200S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012512 199S 429E 70
0823012518 195S 432E 70
0823012518 195S 432E 70
0823012518 195S 432E 70
0823012600 196S 432E 70
0823012600 196S 432E 70
0823012600 196S 432E 70
0823012606 198S 429E 65
0823012606 198S 429E 65
0823012606 198S 429E 65
0823012612 201S 428E 60
0823012612 201S 428E 60
0823012618 206S 423E 55
0823012618 206S 423E 55
0823012700 209S 421E 50
0823012700 209S 421E 50
0823012706 217S 420E 50
0823012706 217S 420E 50
0823012712 226S 417E 50
0823012712 226S 417E 50
0823012718 234S 415E 60
0823012718 234S 415E 60
0823012800 241S 413E 80
0823012800 241S 413E 80
0823012800 241S 413E 80
0823012803 245S 413E 85
0823012803 245S 413E 85
0823012803 245S 413E 85
0823012806 249S 413E 80
0823012806 249S 413E 80
0823012806 249S 413E 80
0823012812 257S 415E 75
0823012812 257S 415E 75
0823012812 257S 415E 75
0823012818 269S 425E 70
0823012818 269S 425E 70
0823012818 269S 425E 70
0823012900 277S 438E 60
0823012900 277S 438E 60
0823012906 288S 451E 55
0823012906 288S 451E 55
0823012912 299S 476E 50
0823012912 299S 476E 50
0823012918 314S 498E 50
0823013000 328S 517E 40
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