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Tropical Storm YAMANEKO (28W)

Tropical Storm YAMANEKO Forecast Graphic
Tropical Storm YAMANEKO Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Storm YAMANEKO Storm-Centered Infrared Tropical Storm YAMANEKO Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared Tropical Storm YAMANEKO Storm-Centered Visible

Tropical Storm YAMANEKO Warning Text (JTWC)

WTPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (YAMANEKO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (YAMANEKO) WARNING NR 007    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140000Z --- NEAR 23.8N 165.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 165.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 27.1N 166.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 32.0N 168.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 380 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 24.6N 165.7E.
14NOV22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (YAMANEKO), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 276 NM NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WELL 
DEVELOPED BUT FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT 
IS TD 28W. AUTOMATED AND MANUAL PHASE CLASSIFICATION WORKSHEETS 
INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS TRANSITIONED TO A FULLY SUBTROPICAL 
DEPRESSION, HAVING CHARACTERISTICS OF BOTH A TROPICAL AND 
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE SUCH AS A MODERATE AMOUNT OF THERMAL ADVECTION, 
WARM SSTS, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ASSOCIATED WITH AN 
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO PICK UP SPEED AS IT 
HEADS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE TO THE 
EAST. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIES JUST TO THE WEST WITH AN 
ASSOCIATED RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LYING NEAR 30N 160E. THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED 
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, IN 
LINE WITH THE BULK OF THE AGENCY FIXES, THE AIDT, DEEP MICRONET AND 
OPEN-AIIR ESTIMATES. WHILE 28W IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS SUBTROPICAL, 
THIS PHASE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY TRANSITION 
TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT COMES INTO PHASE WITH THE NEGATIVELY 
TILTED TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, MOVES NORTH OF THE 26C ISOTHERM 
AND MOVES UNDER A STRONG 200MB JET MAX. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
INTENSIFY AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL DUE TO THE VERY STRONG 
BAROCLINIC FORCING AND RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. 
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 14 FEET.//
NNNN

Tropical Storm YAMANEKO Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)

WDPN31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (YAMANEKO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.8N 165.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 214 NM NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED PROXY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLETELY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS BEGINNING TO STRETCH
OUT AND BECOME INCREASINGLY RAGGED. MANUAL PHASE CLASSIFICATION
WORKSHEETS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS WEAKLY SUBTROPICAL, WHILE
AUTOMATED CLASSIFICATIONS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS STILL FULLY
TROPICAL. THE CURRENT ASSESSMENT IS THAT TD 28W IS A BORDERLINE
TROPICAL-SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, HAVING CHARACTERISTICS OF BOTH TYPES
OF CYCLONES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC AND A 131711Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS SHEARED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST
AND LIES IN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED BAND. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS, A BIT BELOW THE AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES, BASED ON A 131420Z AMSR2 WINDSPEED
PRODUCT WHICH SHOWS NO MORE THAN 30 KNOT WINDS WITHIN 150NM OF THE
CENTER POSITION AS WELL AS THE QUICKLY DROPPING FINAL-T NUMBERS,
ALL OF WHICH HAVE COME DOWN TO THE T1.5-T2.0 RANGE. THE SYSTEM LIES
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH VERY STRONG VWS OFFSETTING
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND SSTS AROUND 26C.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL TRANSITORY RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 43 KTS AT 131438Z
   CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 131740Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 30+ KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: HAVING DRIFTED RATHER AIMLESSLY OVERNIGHT, TD
28W HAS NOW STARTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS THE SHALLOW TRANSITORY
RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS NOW MOVED EAST OF THE 170E LONGITUDE. IN THE
DEEP-LAYER, THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST IS ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH AND THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL PUSH TD 28W ONTO A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK GOING
FORWARD. THE APPROACH OF A STRONG, NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL STRENGTHEN THE STEERING
GRADIENT AND TD 28W WILL STEADILY ACCELERATE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENT ASSESSED AS A BORDERLINE TROPICAL-SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND
IS LIKELY TO BECOME FULLY SUBTROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
IT MOVES IT MOVES NORTH OF THE 26C ISOTHERM AND BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST BUT RETAINS ITS WARM CORE STRUCTURE.
THE SUBTROPICAL PHASE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER, AND AS THE
SYSTEM RACES NORTHWARD, IT WILL COME INTO PHASE WITH THE NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, MOVE UNDER A STRONG 200MB
JET MAX AND MOVE OVER RAPIDLY COOLING WATER, BEGINNING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 24. THE TRANSITION TO
EXTRATROPICAL LOW WILL BE VERY RAPID AND DUE TO THE STRONG
BAROCLINIC FORCING, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
THROUGH ETT. ETT IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE NO LATER THAN TAU 36,
POTENTIALLY A BIT EARLIER.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH MINIMAL SPREAD IN THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST DURATION. ALONG TRACK SPREAD INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY AFTER TAU 24 AS THE MODELS ACCELERATE THE VORTEX AT
DIFFERING RATES WHILE UNDERGOING ETT. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH A WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN THE DECAY-SHIPS WHICH
SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION THROUGH TAU 24, WHILE THE
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING COAMPS-TC AND HWRF SHOW A DRAMATIC
INTENSIFICATION UP TO 50 KNOTS OR MORE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES WHILE UNDERGOING ETT DUE TO THE VERY
STRONG BAROCLINIC FORCING. THE JTWC FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS
MEAN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
NNNN

Tropical Storm YAMANEKO JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)

WTPN51 PGTW 140300    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 28W NWP 221114012328
2022111400 28W YAMANEKO   007  01 345 10 SATL 040
T000 238N 1656E 030 
T012 271N 1662E 030 
T024 320N 1683E 035 R034 380 NE QD 200 SE QD 040 SW QD 240 NW QD 
AMP 000HR EXTRATROPICAL
    012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (YAMANEKO) WARNING NR 007    
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (YAMANEKO) WARNING NR 007    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140000Z --- NEAR 23.8N 165.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 165.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 27.1N 166.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 32.0N 168.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 380 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 24.6N 165.7E.
14NOV22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (YAMANEKO), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 276 NM NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WELL DEVELOPED BUT FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS TD 28W. AUTOMATED AND MANUAL PHASE CLASSIFICATION WORKSHEETS INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS TRANSITIONED TO A FULLY SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION, HAVING CHARACTERISTICS OF BOTH A TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE SUCH AS A MODERATE AMOUNT OF THERMAL ADVECTION, WARM SSTS, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO PICK UP SPEED AS IT HEADS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF AN AMPLYFYING RIDGE TO THE EAST. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIES JUST TO THE WEST WITH AN ASSOCIATED RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LYING NEAR 30N 160E. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, IN LINE WITH THE BULK OF THE AGENCY FIXES, THE AIDT, DEEP MICRONET AND OPEN-AIIR ESTIMATES. WHILE 28W IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS SUBTROPICAL, THIS PHASE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT COMES INTO PHASE WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, MOVES NORTH OF THE 26C ISOTHERM AND MOVES UNDER A STRONG 200MB JET MAX. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL DUE TO THE VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC FORCING AND RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 14 FEET.
//
2822111012 195N1697E  15
2822111018 197N1691E  15
2822111100 199N1686E  15
2822111106 200N1681E  20
2822111112 201N1675E  20
2822111118 203N1667E  20
2822111200 204N1658E  20
2822111206 206N1655E  25
2822111212 212N1655E  30
2822111218 217N1657E  35
2822111300 219N1658E  35
2822111306 221N1659E  35
2822111312 222N1659E  35
2822111318 228N1659E  30
2822111400 238N1656E  30
NNNN

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