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Typhoon NORU (18W)

Typhoon NORU Forecast Graphic
Typhoon NORU Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Typhoon NORU Storm-Centered Infrared Typhoon NORU Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared Typhoon NORU Storm-Centered Visible

Typhoon NORU Warning Text (JTWC)

WTPN32 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 18W (NORU) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 18W (NORU) WARNING NR 025    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280000Z --- NEAR 16.0N 107.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 107.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 16.2N 105.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 16.4N 103.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 16.7N 101.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 107.3E.
28SEP22. TYPHOON 18W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 29 NM WEST OF
DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED RADAR DATA CONFIRMS THAT TY 18W MADE LANDFALL
JUST SOUTH OF DA NANG, VIETNAM AT 272100Z AND HAS SINCE RAPIDLY 
MOVED INLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION STILL PERSISTING, HOWEVER, IS 
INCREASINGLY BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE MSI, ANIMATED RADAR 
DATA, AND ANALYSIS OF WIND OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDED 
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INTIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 
80 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN RJTD 
OVER LAND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0, AND MSLP 
OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING THE CENTER REPORTING 986MB. 
THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY INLAND TO 
THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING 
OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA NO LATER THAN TAU 36. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING 
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOIN TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM 
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (KULAP) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Typhoon NORU Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)

WDPN32 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (NORU) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.0N 109.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 40 NM EAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 43 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SYSTEM THAT IS CONTINUING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY DUE TO EASTERLY 
WIND SHEAR. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE ONCE PIN HOLE EYE
FEATURE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT AS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPS INTO A DEEP
CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE. AN EARLIER 271105Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A SOLID BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING UP
THE EAST SIDE AND A WEAKER BAND ON THE WEST SIDE BUT NO EYEWALL OR
DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED EIR
IMAGERY ALONG WITH THE VIETNAMESE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK 
INTENSITIES FROM PGTW T5.5, RJTD T5.5, AND KNES T5.5. OBJECTIVE 
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES INTENSITIES FROM ADT REMAINS ON THE LOW 
END, DOWN TO 84 KTS. THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED CLOSER 
TO SUBJECTIVE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER SOUTHERN CHINA

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 84 KTS AT 271740Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 18W (NORU) CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (25-30KTS),
OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C), AND STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TY 18W IS FORECASTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH
OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER SOUTHERN CHINA, BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS INTO CENTRAL VIETNAM
NEAR DA NANG, VIETNAM. AFTER TAU 12, TY 18W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD WITHIN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
RESULT IN THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VWS, AS WELL AS TERRAIN INDUCED FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER
INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK FORECAST, WITH A GRADUAL SPREAD OF
ONLY 78NM BY TAU 48. THIS LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST REMAINS HIGHER
THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT IS
UNREALISTIC TO SEE 70 KNOTS OF WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL. THE
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS MEDIUM DUE
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY ALONG WITH HOW QUICKLY
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS THROUGH OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

Typhoon NORU JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)

WTPN52 PGTW 280300    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 18W NWP 220928012902
2022092800 18W NORU       025  02 270 12 SATL 040
T000 160N 1078E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 105 NW QD 
T012 162N 1058E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD 
T024 164N 1038E 035 
T036 167N 1019E 020 
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TYPHOON 18W (NORU) WARNING NR 025    
1. TYPHOON 18W (NORU) WARNING NR 025    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280000Z --- NEAR 16.0N 107.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 107.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 16.2N 105.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 16.4N 103.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 16.7N 101.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 107.3E.
28SEP22. TYPHOON 18W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 29 NM WEST OF
DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED RADAR DATA CONFIRMS THAT TY 18W MADE LANDFALL
JUST SOUTH OF DA NANG, VIETNAM AT 272100Z AND HAS SINCE RAPIDLY 
MOVED INLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION STILL PERSISTING, HOWEVER, IS 
INCREASINGLY BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE MSI, ANIMATED 
RADAR DATA, AND ANALYSIS OF WIND OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION 
PROVIDED HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INTIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED 
ON AN RJTD OVER LAND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0, 
AND MSLP OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING THE CENTER REPORTING 986MB. 
THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY INLAND TO 
THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING 
OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA NO LATER THAN TAU 36. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING 
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOIN TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM 
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. 
//
1822092012 171N1311E  15
1822092018 173N1318E  15
1822092100 174N1324E  15
1822092106 175N1329E  15
1822092112 176N1336E  15
1822092118 177N1341E  20
1822092200 177N1346E  30
1822092206 179N1347E  35
1822092212 180N1340E  35
1822092218 180N1334E  40
1822092300 181N1326E  40
1822092306 178N1313E  40
1822092312 174N1303E  45
1822092318 169N1291E  45
1822092400 164N1280E  50
1822092400 164N1280E  50
1822092406 158N1267E  65
1822092406 158N1267E  65
1822092412 154N1259E  90
1822092412 154N1259E  90
1822092412 154N1259E  90
1822092418 151N1247E 135
1822092418 151N1247E 135
1822092418 151N1247E 135
1822092500 150N1237E 140
1822092500 150N1237E 140
1822092500 150N1237E 140
1822092506 150N1225E 130
1822092506 150N1225E 130
1822092506 150N1225E 130
1822092512 152N1213E 115
1822092512 152N1213E 115
1822092512 152N1213E 115
1822092518 156N1198E  90
1822092518 156N1198E  90
1822092518 156N1198E  90
1822092600 159N1184E  75
1822092600 159N1184E  75
1822092600 159N1184E  75
1822092606 159N1169E  80
1822092606 159N1169E  80
1822092606 159N1169E  80
1822092612 159N1154E  90
1822092612 159N1154E  90
1822092612 159N1154E  90
1822092618 158N1136E 105
1822092618 158N1136E 105
1822092618 158N1136E 105
1822092700 154N1120E 130
1822092700 154N1120E 130
1822092700 154N1120E 130
1822092706 156N1112E 125
1822092706 156N1112E 125
1822092706 156N1112E 125
1822092712 158N1103E 105
1822092712 158N1103E 105
1822092712 158N1103E 105
1822092718 160N1090E  95
1822092718 160N1090E  95
1822092718 160N1090E  95
1822092800 160N1078E  80
1822092800 160N1078E  80
1822092800 160N1078E  80
NNNN

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