West Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracking

ABPW10
Graphic provided by Joint Typhoon Warning Center
ABPW10 PGTW 210600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZMAY2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.8N 
137.7E, APPROXIMATELY 238 NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 210432Z ATMS NPP 165.5 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT 
A BROAD AREA OF TURNING MOVING INTO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT, WITH CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS). MODERATE TO STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, ENHANCED BY THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE 
WEST, WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD WITH SLIGHT 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY STEADY 
INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 13 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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