Last accessed: Tue 7 Feb 2023 04:21 GMT

West Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracking

ABPW10
Graphic provided by Joint Typhoon Warning Center
ABPW10 PGTW 061430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/061430Z-070600ZFEB2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.5S 156.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 156.1E, APPROXIMATELY 461 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED EIR AND A 061127Z 
AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DEEP FLARING CONVECTION 
SURROUNDING A STILL DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ANALYSIS 
INDICATES INVEST 99P IS A IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW (5-10KT) VWS, WARM (29-30C) SST, AND DECENT EQUATORWARD AND 
WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW SUPPORTED BY A POINT SOURCE TO THE WEST. ALL 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE THAT INVEST 99P WILL 
TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE STEADILY 
CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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