South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracking

ABPW10 PGTW 240800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/240800Z-250600ZSEP2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240751ZSEP2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.9N 113.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 112.4E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM 
SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
240617Z 88.2 GHZ ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF ELONGATED 
LOW LEVEL TURNING OF WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION WITH 
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT 91W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
AND WARM (30-31 C) SST. GLOBAL NUMERICAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD AND 
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 240800) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.1N 
147.3E, APPROXIMATELY 267 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 
SHALLOW FORMATIVE BANDING AND ISOLATED ELEMENTS OF FLARING CONVECTION 
IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 92W 
IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30 C) SST OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT 92W WILL 
TRACK WESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH 
AND ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2)//
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