Tropical Cyclone HAMOON (06B)

WTIO32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (HAMOON) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (HAMOON) WARNING NR 007    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z --- NEAR 21.6N 92.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 92.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 22.6N 93.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 23.5N 94.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 21.9N 92.4E.
24OCT23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (HAMOON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 06B (HAMOON) IS MAKING LANDFALL AS 
WE SPEAK, ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND VWS ARE EXPOSING THE LLCC 
BENEATH. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK INLAND, INCREASING VWS, 
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM UNTIL DISSIPATION NEAR TAU 24. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING 
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE 
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 241800Z IS 981 MB.
//
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WDIO32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (HAMOON) WARNING 
NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.8N 91.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 96 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (HAMOON) CONTINUES TO PRESENT A ROBUST
APPEARANCE IN THE ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY, WITH PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION AND A SINGLE HOT TOWER IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE CIRCULATION PERSISTING FOR THE PAST FOUR HOURS. HOWEVER, THE
EIR LOOP IS DECEIVING AS IT OBSCURES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A FORTUITOUS 241145Z SSMIS COLOR ENHANCED 89GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS EXPOSED LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A
CENTER WHICH IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
MICROWAVE EYE. THIS SUGGESTS THE VORTEX IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO
DECOUPLE. THE CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATES 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR FROM
220 DEGREES, WHICH ALIGNS ALMOST PERFECTLY WITH THE BEARING BETWEEN
THE ASSESSED LLCC AND THE UPPER-LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE, PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE ANALYSIS OF THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH
IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 75 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, IN LINE WITH THE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE AND THE CIMSS AIDT, DPRINT AND DMINT
ESTIMATES. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUT HAS SLOWED AS EXPECTED, AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST OF MYANMAR, WITH TRACK SPEED LOWERING FROM 12
KNOTS TO 8 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE, WITH HIGH SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR OFFSETTING BEGINNING TO EXERT THEIR INFLUENCE AND
OVERWHELM THE ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR
CENTERED NEAR HONG KONG. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 65 KTS AT 240656Z
   CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 241130Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 74 KTS AT 241200Z
   CIMSS DMINT: 74 KTS AT 241145Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 30+ KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: VERY DRY AIR MASS ABOVE 500MB MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 06B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
TOWARDS THE GENERALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF COXS BAZAAR IS ANTICIPATED
WITHIN THE NEXT SIX TO EIGHT HOURS. WITH THE MOST RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SUGGESTING THE VORTEX IS ALREADY STARTING TO DECOUPLE DUE
TO 30+ KNOTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES LANDFALL. AN INTENSITY BETWEEN
60-65 KNOTS IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE COASTLINE. RAPID
WEAKENING WILL OCCUR THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM IS SHEARED APART BY
THE STRONG SHEAR FROM ABOVE, AND THE RUGGED TERRAIN TEARS THE
LOW-LEVEL VORTEX APART AT THE SURFACE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48 ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN
MYANMAR AND EASTERN INDIA. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
24, BUT THEN BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS THE MODELS LOSE THE VORTEX
AS IT IS SHREDDED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE JTWC TRACK IS SET
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTER TAU 24.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON A RAPID WEAKENING
TREND AND THE JTWC FORECAST IS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE, ON THE
HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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