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Tropical Depression BANYAN (27W)

Tropical Depression BANYAN Forecast Graphic
Tropical Depression BANYAN Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Depression BANYAN Storm-Centered Infrared Tropical Depression BANYAN Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared Tropical Depression BANYAN Storm-Centered Visible

Tropical Depression BANYAN Warning Text (JTWC)

WTPN32 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 005A//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 005A AMENDED AND 
RELOCATED
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   311800Z --- NEAR 7.1N 132.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.1N 132.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z --- 7.2N 130.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z --- 7.6N 129.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 7.1N 131.8E.
31OCT22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
108 NM NORTH OF SONSOROL, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AFTER RELEASE OF THE ORIGINAL WARNING 
NUMBER FIVE (WR 005), FURTHER SATELLITE ANALYSIS REVEALED THE SURFACE 
CIRCULATION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS 
AND IS LOCATED APPROX 109 NM TO THE EAST AS PREVIOUSLY SPECIFIED. 
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WIND FLOW HAS DISPLACED THE CONVECTION WELL OFF TO 
THE WEST AS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME COMPLETELY DECOUPLED. COPIOUS 
AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH ALLOWED FOR A BETTER VIEW OF THE 
LOWER LEVELS OVER THE PAST HOUR AND THIS SYSTEM IS FULLY EXPOSED WITH 
LITTLE-TO-NO CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES IN FURTHER DECAY OF TD 27W. THE PGTW DVORAK 
ESTIMATE IS NOW 1.5. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE 
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY 
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 
AT 311800Z IS 13 FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 26W (NALGAE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT/RELOCATION: RELOCATED POSITION 
APPROXIMATELY 109NM TO THE EAST BASED ON IMPROVED IR PROXY VIS 
IMAGERY.//
NNNN

Tropical Depression BANYAN Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)

WDPN32 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (BANYAN) 
WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 7.4N 130.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 169 NM NORTHWEST OF SONSOROL
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
STRUGGLING SYSTEM WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AN ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A PARTIAL 311252Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION EXTENDING EASTWARD. COMPARISON BETWEEN THE
89GHZ AND 36GHZ 311636Z AMSR2 PASS INDICATES NO RELEVANT STRUCTURE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED OFF
MULTI-AGENCY FIXES AND EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 42 KTS AT 311708Z
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 311910Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: LOW
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM BANYAN IS CURRENTLY STRUGGLING
AS IT TRANSITS WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
ALTHOUGH OVER WARM SSTS, ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FLOW
SHOWS A SMALL POCKET OF 40 KNOTS OVER THE SYSTEM. THE CONSISTENT
WIND SHEAR TS BANYAN HAS EXPERIENCED CAUSED THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVELS
TO TILT. THE MID-LEVEL (700 MB) AXIS IS NOW DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH IS CAUSING TS BANYAN TO LOSE SUPPORT. AS THE SYSTEM
TRANSITS TO THE WEST IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME FULLY
DISSIPATED OVER WATER JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES BY TAU
36. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN VWS SHEAR (25-30
KTS) WILL ASSIST IN THE DISSIPATION OF TS BANYAN.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE GFS VORTEX-AVERAGED SKEW-T MODEL INDICATES
MID-TO-LOW LEVEL DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTH BETWEEN THE 500 AND 800 MB LEVELS. THE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK
GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 24 IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 44 NM SPREAD BY
THIS TIME. HOWEVER, BY TAU 36, THE MODEL SPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASES TO 100 NM WITH NAVGEM AND JGSI BEING THE OUTLIERS
SHOWING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. BASED ON THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT SPREAD APART WITH GFS AND COAMPS SHOWING THE
MOST REASONABLE SOLUTIONS. DUE TO THIS, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

Tropical Depression BANYAN JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)

WTPN52 PGTW 312100    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 27W NWP 221031191512
2022103118 27W BANYAN     005  02 280 13 SATL 030
T000 074N 1303E 035 R034 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD 
T012 077N 1289E 030 
T024 081N 1278E 030 
T036 086N 1270E 020 
AMP
    024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 27W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 005    
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 005    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   311800Z --- NEAR 7.4N 130.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.4N 130.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z --- 7.7N 128.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z --- 8.1N 127.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z --- 8.6N 127.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 7.5N 129.9E.
31OCT22. TROPICAL STORM 27W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169
NM NORTHWEST OF SONSOROL, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2722102800  84N1426E  15
2722102806  86N1419E  20
2722102812  88N1413E  25
2722102818  88N1406E  25
2722102900  88N1402E  20
2722102906  88N1398E  20
2722102912  90N1395E  20
2722102918  90N1389E  20
2722103000  90N1380E  20
2722103006  90N1369E  20
2722103012  85N1361E  25
2722103018  82N1353E  30
2722103100  74N1337E  35
2722103106  70N1325E  35
2722103112  72N1316E  35
2722103118  74N1303E  35
NNNN

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