Tropical Storm MAWAR (02W)

WTPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 057//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 057    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030000Z --- NEAR 30.7N 138.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 30.7N 138.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 34.2N 145.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 39 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 38.5N 153.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 31.6N 139.9E.
03JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME GROSSLY SHEARED/ELONGATED 
AS IT TRACKED UNDER THE STRONG PREVAILING WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MOSTLY EXPOSED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS ALSO EVIDENT ON THE MSI LOOP. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND 
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. TS MAWAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO 
DETERIORATE AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INTO THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE.
IT HAS BEGUN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 12 WILL TRANSFORM
INTO A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD
THAT WILL BE INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM THE BAROCLINIC WIND FLOW. 
THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT TS 02W WILL DISSIPATE AND/OR
BE ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC FLOW BEFORE TAU 12. THIS IS THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR 
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060300Z IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 13 FEET.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 
056//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 30.0N 135.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 397 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FAST
DETERIORATING SYSTEM WITH THE CONVECTIVE BANDS AND CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST GROSSLY SHEARED AND STRETCHED OUT AS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERIES GET ABSORBED INTO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, ALSO EVIDENT IN THE EIR LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
HIGH END OF CLOSELY-VALUED AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES
AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR DETERIORATION. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VWS, COOL SST, AND
COLD NORTHWESTERLY DRY AIR INTRUSION OFFSETTING THE STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGING (STR) TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   SATCON: 40 KTS AT 021651Z
   CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 021730Z
   UW-CIMSS DMINT: 39 KTS AT 021406Z
   UW-CIMSS DPRINT: 36 KTS AT 021700Z   

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 24-25 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS MAWAR WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ON
THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY, IT WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AND WILL TRANSFORM INTO A
GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD THAT IS
EMBEDDED IN AND INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM THE BAROCLINIC FLOW BY TAU
24. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

WTPN51 PGTW 030300    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230603012511
2023060300 02W MAWAR      057  01 075 28 SATL SYNP 020
T000 307N 1381E 035 R034 150 NE QD 250 SE QD 215 SW QD 000 NW QD 
T012 342N 1451E 035 R034 180 NE QD 225 SE QD 180 SW QD 000 NW QD 
T024 385N 1531E 035 R034 280 NE QD 215 SE QD 175 SW QD 000 NW QD 
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 057    
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 057    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030000Z --- NEAR 30.7N 138.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 30.7N 138.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 34.2N 145.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 39 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 38.5N 153.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 31.6N 139.9E.
03JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME GROSSLY SHEARED/ELONGATED 
AS IT TRACKED UNDER THE STRONG PREVAILING WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MOSTLY EXPOSED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS ALSO EVIDENT ON THE MSI LOOP. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND 
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESITMATES. TS MAWAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO 
DETRIORATE AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INTO THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE.
IT HAS BEGUN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 12 WILL TRANSFORM
INTO A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD
THAT WILL BE INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM THE BAROCLINIC WIND FLOW. 
THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT TS 02W WILL DISSIPATE AND/OR
BE ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC FLOW BEFORE TAU 12. THIS IS THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR 
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060300Z IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 13 FEET.//
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