Tropical Storm MAWAR Warning Text (JTWC)
WTPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 057//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 057
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 30.7N 138.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.7N 138.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 34.2N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 39 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 38.5N 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 31.6N 139.9E.
03JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME GROSSLY SHEARED/ELONGATED
AS IT TRACKED UNDER THE STRONG PREVAILING WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MOSTLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS ALSO EVIDENT ON THE MSI LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. TS MAWAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INTO THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE.
IT HAS BEGUN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 12 WILL TRANSFORM
INTO A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD
THAT WILL BE INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM THE BAROCLINIC WIND FLOW.
THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT TS 02W WILL DISSIPATE AND/OR
BE ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC FLOW BEFORE TAU 12. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060300Z IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 13 FEET.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm MAWAR Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)
WDPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR
056//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 30.0N 135.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 397 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FAST
DETERIORATING SYSTEM WITH THE CONVECTIVE BANDS AND CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST GROSSLY SHEARED AND STRETCHED OUT AS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERIES GET ABSORBED INTO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, ALSO EVIDENT IN THE EIR LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
HIGH END OF CLOSELY-VALUED AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES
AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR DETERIORATION. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VWS, COOL SST, AND
COLD NORTHWESTERLY DRY AIR INTRUSION OFFSETTING THE STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGING (STR) TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
SATCON: 40 KTS AT 021651Z
CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 021730Z
UW-CIMSS DMINT: 39 KTS AT 021406Z
UW-CIMSS DPRINT: 36 KTS AT 021700Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 20-25 KTS
SST: 24-25 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS MAWAR WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ON
THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY, IT WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AND WILL TRANSFORM INTO A
GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD THAT IS
EMBEDDED IN AND INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM THE BAROCLINIC FLOW BY TAU
24.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
Tropical Storm MAWAR JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)
WTPN51 PGTW 030300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230603012511
2023060300 02W MAWAR 057 01 075 28 SATL SYNP 020
T000 307N 1381E 035 R034 150 NE QD 250 SE QD 215 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 342N 1451E 035 R034 180 NE QD 225 SE QD 180 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 385N 1531E 035 R034 280 NE QD 215 SE QD 175 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 057
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 057
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 30.7N 138.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.7N 138.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 34.2N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 39 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 38.5N 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 31.6N 139.9E.
03JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME GROSSLY SHEARED/ELONGATED
AS IT TRACKED UNDER THE STRONG PREVAILING WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MOSTLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS ALSO EVIDENT ON THE MSI LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESITMATES. TS MAWAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DETRIORATE AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INTO THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE.
IT HAS BEGUN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 12 WILL TRANSFORM
INTO A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD
THAT WILL BE INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM THE BAROCLINIC WIND FLOW.
THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT TS 02W WILL DISSIPATE AND/OR
BE ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC FLOW BEFORE TAU 12. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060300Z IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 13 FEET.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
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