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Tropical Depression TALAS (17W)

Tropical Depression TALAS Forecast Graphic
Tropical Depression TALAS Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Depression TALAS Storm-Centered Infrared Tropical Depression TALAS Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared Tropical Depression TALAS Storm-Centered Visible

Tropical Depression TALAS Warning Text (JTWC)

WTPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (TALAS) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (TALAS) WARNING NR 010    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240000Z --- NEAR 33.3N 138.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 33.3N 138.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 33.8N 139.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 34.2N 141.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 33.4N 138.5E.
24SEP22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
144 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TD 17W WAS ABSORBED INTO THE WEAK FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH OF HONSHU AND HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED; 
THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A DISTINCT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 232152Z 
SCATTEROMETER IMAGE SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE IZU 
PENINSULA WITH NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS 
SEVERAL PROMINENT RAINBANDS FLOWING NORTHWARD INTO THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW 
(NOT TD 17W) WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE IZU 
PENINSULA AND TRACK EASTWARD WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 
TWO DAYS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT 
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED 
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z 
IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (NORU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) 
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Tropical Depression TALAS Prognostic Reasoning (JTWC)

WDPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (TALAS)  
WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 32.9N 137.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 190 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY-WEAKENING, RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) EMBEDDED IN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 140NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FRONTAL BAND
EXTENDING FROM HONSHU SOUTHWARD WITH NO DEFINED LLC DUE TO THE
SHALLOW, WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
DVORAK DATA-T ESTIMATES AND CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE. TD 17W IS LOCATED
WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND IS INTERACTING
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)  

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 35 KTS AT 231714Z
   CIMSS ADT: 25 KTS AT 231750Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: BAROCLINIC INTERACTION AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 17W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL STR THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND IS FORECAST TO 
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 06-24 HOURS AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NEXT WARNING AT 240000Z WILL LIKELY BE THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND
GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK SOUTH OF HONSHU WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES
STEADY WEAKENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HWRF, WHICH SHOWS AN
INCREASE TO 33 KNOTS AT TAU 12 THEN STEADY WEAKENING. THIS
INTENSIFICATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF STRONGER NORTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE.    

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

Tropical Depression TALAS JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)

WTPN51 PGTW 240300    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 17W NWP 220924011816
2022092400 17W TALAS      010  02 060 09 SATL RADR SYNP 060
T000 333N 1381E 020 
T012 338N 1398E 020 
T024 342N 1412E 015 
AMP 000HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (TALAS) WARNING NR 010    
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (TALAS) WARNING NR 010    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240000Z --- NEAR 33.3N 138.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 33.3N 138.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 33.8N 139.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 34.2N 141.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 33.4N 138.5E.
24SEP22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
144 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z
IS 12 FEET.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1722092000 184N1381E  15
1722092006 193N1390E  15
1722092012 204N1397E  20
1722092018 214N1402E  20
1722092100 224N1404E  20
1722092106 236N1404E  20
1722092112 244N1398E  20
1722092118 254N1389E  25
1722092200 260N1374E  30
1722092206 269N1365E  30
1722092212 284N1357E  30
1722092218 295N1350E  30
1722092300 308N1348E  35
1722092306 321N1355E  25
1722092312 325N1363E  25
1722092318 329N1372E  25
1722092400 333N1381E  20
NNNN

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